La escuela de los momios

Derby County v Sheffield Wednesday

Inicio: 2026-03-07 15:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Derby County (Local)

Predicción 74.45%1.34momio equitativo
EV -3.21%
Ventaja -2.47%
Kelly -10.70%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
72.22%74.30%74.46%76.09%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.131.251.261.3088.50%79.77%79.37%76.92%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Sheffield Wednesday (Visitante)

Predicción 8.76%11.41momio equitativo
EV +5.13%
Ventaja +0.427%
Kelly +0.466%
Crecimiento +0.024%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 12.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
7.76%8.84%8.72%11.19%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
8.0010.6011.0012.0012.50%9.43%9.09%8.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 16.79%5.96momio equitativo
EV +0.720%
Ventaja +0.120%
Kelly +0.144%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
15.47%16.86%16.81%19.62%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.505.475.406.0022.22%18.29%18.52%16.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet1.28I 78.13%NM 74.66%EV -4.70%E -3.67%K -16.79%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.96%EV +5.13%E +0.427%K +0.466%G +0.024%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.38%EV -7.67%E -1.40%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-07 14:33
SportsBet1.25I 80.00%NM 75.11%EV -6.93%E -5.55%K -27.74%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.82%EV +5.13%E +0.427%K +0.466%G +0.024%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.07%EV -7.67%E -1.40%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-07 14:50
Caesars1.25I 80.00%NM 74.50%EV -6.93%E -5.55%K -27.74%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV +5.13%E +0.427%K +0.466%G +0.024%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.74%EV -11.87%E -2.26%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 12:42
Pinnacle1.26I 79.37%NM 75.66%EV -6.19%E -4.91%K -23.81%G +0.000%11.81I 8.47%NM 8.07%EV +3.46%E +0.293%K +0.320%G +0.011%5.86I 17.06%NM 16.27%EV -1.63%E -0.278%K -0.335%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-07 14:44
LeoVegas (SE)1.29I 77.52%NM 74.49%EV -3.96%E -3.07%K -13.64%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.36%EV +0.747%E +0.065%K +0.071%G +0.001%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.16%EV -5.99%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-07 14:14
ATG (SE)1.29I 77.52%NM 74.49%EV -3.96%E -3.07%K -13.64%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.36%EV +0.747%E +0.065%K +0.071%G +0.001%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.16%EV -5.99%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-07 14:14
Svenska Spel1.29I 77.52%NM 74.49%EV -3.96%E -3.07%K -13.64%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.36%EV +0.747%E +0.065%K +0.071%G +0.001%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.16%EV -5.99%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-07 14:14
Fanatics1.25I 80.00%NM 75.41%EV -6.93%E -5.55%K -27.74%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.20%EV +0.747%E +0.065%K +0.071%G +0.001%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -3.48%E -0.605%K -0.732%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-07 14:50
Bet Victor1.25I 80.00%NM 75.41%EV -6.93%E -5.55%K -27.74%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.20%EV +0.747%E +0.065%K +0.071%G +0.001%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -3.48%E -0.605%K -0.732%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-07 13:28
1xBet1.30I 76.92%NM 74.41%EV -3.21%E -2.47%K -10.70%G +0.000%11.30I 8.85%NM 8.56%EV -1.01%E -0.089%K -0.098%G +0.000%5.68I 17.61%NM 17.03%EV -4.65%E -0.819%K -0.994%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-07 14:54
Marathon Bet1.24I 80.65%NM 75.21%EV -7.68%E -6.19%K -31.99%G +0.000%11.25I 8.89%NM 8.29%EV -1.44%E -0.128%K -0.141%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 16.51%EV -5.16%E -0.912%K -1.11%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-07 14:55
Codere (IT)1.28I 78.13%NM 74.79%EV -4.70%E -3.67%K -16.79%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.70%EV -3.63%E -0.330%K -0.363%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.51%EV -2.64%E -0.455%K -0.549%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-07 14:55
LowVig.ag1.27I 78.74%NM 75.35%EV -5.45%E -4.29%K -20.17%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.70%EV -3.63%E -0.330%K -0.363%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.95%EV +0.720%E +0.120%K +0.144%G +0.001%4.5%2026-03-07 14:49
BetOnline.ag1.27I 78.74%NM 75.35%EV -5.45%E -4.29%K -20.17%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.70%EV -3.63%E -0.330%K -0.363%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.95%EV +0.720%E +0.120%K +0.144%G +0.001%4.5%2026-03-07 14:49
Unibet1.26I 79.37%NM 74.19%EV -6.19%E -4.91%K -23.81%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.50%EV -3.63%E -0.330%K -0.363%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -9.35%E -1.73%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-07 14:24
Unibet (NL)1.26I 79.37%NM 74.19%EV -6.19%E -4.91%K -23.81%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.50%EV -3.63%E -0.330%K -0.363%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -9.35%E -1.73%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-07 14:14
Grosvenor1.26I 79.37%NM 74.19%EV -6.19%E -4.91%K -23.81%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.50%EV -3.63%E -0.330%K -0.363%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -9.35%E -1.73%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-07 14:14
Unibet (SE)1.26I 79.37%NM 74.19%EV -6.19%E -4.91%K -23.81%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.50%EV -3.63%E -0.330%K -0.363%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -9.35%E -1.73%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-07 14:14
TABtouch1.26I 79.37%NM 74.19%EV -6.19%E -4.91%K -23.81%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.50%EV -3.63%E -0.330%K -0.363%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -9.35%E -1.73%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-07 14:14
BetRivers1.26I 79.37%NM 74.19%EV -6.19%E -4.91%K -23.81%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.50%EV -3.63%E -0.330%K -0.363%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -9.35%E -1.73%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-07 14:14
Casumo1.26I 79.37%NM 74.19%EV -6.19%E -4.91%K -23.81%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.50%EV -3.63%E -0.330%K -0.363%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -9.35%E -1.73%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-07 14:14
Bally Bet1.26I 79.37%NM 74.19%EV -6.19%E -4.91%K -23.81%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.50%EV -3.63%E -0.330%K -0.363%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -9.35%E -1.73%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-07 14:14
betPARX1.26I 79.37%NM 74.19%EV -6.19%E -4.91%K -23.81%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.50%EV -3.63%E -0.330%K -0.363%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -9.35%E -1.73%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-07 14:14
TAB1.28I 78.13%NM 72.87%EV -4.70%E -3.67%K -16.79%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.48%EV -3.63%E -0.330%K -0.363%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -16.07%E -3.21%K -4.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-07 14:53
William Hill1.25I 80.00%NM 74.58%EV -6.93%E -5.55%K -27.74%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%EV -3.63%E -0.330%K -0.363%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -7.67%E -1.40%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-07 14:44
Everygame1.25I 80.00%NM 74.58%EV -6.93%E -5.55%K -27.74%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%EV -3.63%E -0.330%K -0.363%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -7.67%E -1.40%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-07 14:44
Sky Bet1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -9.17%E -7.51%K -41.67%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -3.63%E -0.330%K -0.363%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV +0.720%E +0.120%K +0.144%G +0.001%7.7%2026-03-07 14:55
LeoVegas1.24I 80.65%NM 74.26%EV -7.68%E -6.19%K -31.99%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.37%EV -3.63%E -0.330%K -0.363%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.37%EV -11.03%E -2.08%K -2.57%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-07 14:14
888sport1.25I 80.00%NM 73.33%EV -6.93%E -5.55%K -27.74%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -3.63%E -0.330%K -0.363%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -16.07%E -3.21%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-07 14:44
Mr Green (SE)1.25I 80.00%NM 73.33%EV -6.93%E -5.55%K -27.74%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -3.63%E -0.330%K -0.363%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -16.07%E -3.21%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-07 14:44
888sport (SE)1.25I 80.00%NM 73.33%EV -6.93%E -5.55%K -27.74%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -3.63%E -0.330%K -0.363%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -16.07%E -3.21%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-07 14:45
Paddy Power1.22I 81.97%NM 75.03%EV -9.17%E -7.51%K -41.67%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -3.63%E -0.330%K -0.363%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -7.67%E -1.40%K -1.71%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-07 12:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.22I 81.97%NM 72.36%EV -9.17%E -7.51%K -41.67%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.03%EV -3.63%E -0.330%K -0.363%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.62%EV -24.46%E -5.44%K -6.99%G +0.000%13.3%2026-03-07 14:54
GTbets1.27I 78.74%NM 74.06%EV -5.45%E -4.29%K -20.17%G +0.000%10.79I 9.27%NM 8.72%EV -5.47%E -0.507%K -0.559%G +0.000%5.46I 18.32%NM 17.23%EV -8.34%E -1.53%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-07 14:54
Betr (AU)1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -5.45%E -4.29%K -20.17%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.87%EV -8.01%E -0.763%K -0.844%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.75%EV -11.87%E -2.26%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-07 14:39
FanDuel1.24I 80.65%NM 75.08%EV -7.68%E -6.19%K -31.99%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.87%EV -8.01%E -0.763%K -0.844%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.05%EV -2.64%E -0.455%K -0.549%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 14:49
BetUS1.25I 80.00%NM 73.93%EV -6.93%E -5.55%K -27.74%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.80%EV -8.01%E -0.763%K -0.844%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.27%EV -10.19%E -1.90%K -2.34%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-07 14:55
LiveScore Bet1.24I 80.65%NM 74.20%EV -7.68%E -6.19%K -31.99%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.76%EV -8.01%E -0.763%K -0.844%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.04%EV -9.35%E -1.73%K -2.13%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 14:15
Virgin Bet1.24I 80.65%NM 73.96%EV -7.68%E -6.19%K -31.99%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.73%EV -8.01%E -0.763%K -0.844%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.30%EV -11.03%E -2.08%K -2.57%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-07 14:14
Unibet (UK)1.27I 78.74%NM 73.64%EV -5.45%E -4.29%K -20.17%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV -12.39%E -1.24%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.00%EV -7.67%E -1.40%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-07 14:54
PlayUp1.28I 78.13%NM 72.90%EV -4.70%E -3.67%K -16.79%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.33%EV -12.39%E -1.24%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.77%EV -11.87%E -2.26%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-07 14:54
theScore Bet1.26I 79.37%NM 73.80%EV -6.19%E -4.91%K -23.81%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.30%EV -12.39%E -1.24%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.91%EV -7.67%E -1.40%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-07 14:39
Bet Right1.27I 78.74%NM 73.05%EV -5.45%E -4.29%K -20.17%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.28%EV -12.39%E -1.24%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.67%EV -11.87%E -2.26%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-07 14:54
Betway1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -6.93%E -5.55%K -27.74%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -12.39%E -1.24%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -7.67%E -1.40%K -1.71%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-07 05:29
Bovada1.23I 81.30%NM 74.80%EV -8.42%E -6.85%K -36.62%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -12.39%E -1.24%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.00%EV -3.48%E -0.605%K -0.732%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 14:13
Tipico (DE)1.25I 80.00%NM 73.48%EV -6.93%E -5.55%K -27.74%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.19%EV -12.39%E -1.24%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.33%EV -11.03%E -2.08%K -2.57%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-07 14:09
Betclic (FR)1.23I 81.30%NM 74.03%EV -8.42%E -6.85%K -36.62%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.11%EV -12.39%E -1.24%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.86%EV -9.35%E -1.73%K -2.13%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-07 14:47
BoyleSports1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -6.93%E -5.55%K -27.74%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -12.39%E -1.24%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -16.07%E -3.21%K -4.02%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-07 14:44
Unibet (FR)1.20I 83.33%NM 74.50%EV -10.66%E -8.88%K -53.28%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.94%EV -12.39%E -1.24%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.56%EV -9.35%E -1.73%K -2.13%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-07 14:55
NetBet (FR)1.17I 85.47%NM 74.52%EV -12.89%E -11.02%K -75.83%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.72%EV -12.39%E -1.24%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.77%EV -12.71%E -2.44%K -3.03%G +0.000%14.7%2026-03-07 14:54
Fliff1.22I 81.97%NM 74.15%EV -9.17%E -7.51%K -41.67%G +0.000%9.95I 10.05%NM 9.09%EV -12.83%E -1.29%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.75%EV -9.35%E -1.73%K -2.13%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-07 14:54
BetMGM1.29I 77.52%NM 74.03%EV -3.96%E -3.07%K -13.64%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.05%EV -16.77%E -1.77%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.92%EV +0.720%E +0.120%K +0.144%G +0.001%4.7%2026-03-07 14:49
Coral1.28I 78.13%NM 74.18%EV -4.70%E -3.67%K -16.79%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.99%EV -16.77%E -1.77%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.83%EV +0.720%E +0.120%K +0.144%G +0.001%5.3%2026-03-07 14:39
Ladbrokes (UK)1.28I 78.13%NM 73.67%EV -4.70%E -3.67%K -16.79%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.93%EV -16.77%E -1.77%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.40%EV -3.48%E -0.605%K -0.732%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-07 14:54
PMU (FR)1.13I 88.50%NM 74.35%EV -15.87%E -14.04%K -122.06%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 8.84%EV -16.77%E -1.77%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 16.80%EV -16.07%E -3.21%K -4.02%G +0.000%19.0%2026-03-07 14:54
Neds1.28I 78.13%NM 72.95%EV -4.70%E -3.67%K -16.79%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV -21.15%E -2.35%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -5.99%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-07 14:55
Ladbrokes (AU)1.28I 78.13%NM 73.05%EV -4.70%E -3.67%K -16.79%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.69%EV -23.34%E -2.67%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.26%EV -3.48%E -0.605%K -0.732%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-07 14:39
Winamax (DE)1.25I 80.00%NM 72.98%EV -6.93%E -5.55%K -27.74%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.73%EV -25.53%E -3.00%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.29%EV -5.99%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-07 14:54
Winamax (FR)1.24I 80.65%NM 72.22%EV -7.68%E -6.19%K -31.99%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.19%EV -29.92%E -3.74%K -4.27%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.58%EV -9.35%E -1.73%K -2.13%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-07 14:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook1.30I 76.92%NM 76.57%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.37%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.06%0.5%2026-03-07 14:54
Smarkets1.30I 76.92%NM 76.16%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.33%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.50%1.0%2026-03-07 14:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.29I 77.52%NM 76.71%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.33%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.96%1.1%2026-03-07 14:44
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.29I 77.52%NM 76.71%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.33%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.96%1.1%2026-03-07 14:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.29I 77.52%NM 76.71%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.33%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.96%1.1%2026-03-07 14:45
Kalshi1.28I 78.13%NM 76.50%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.83%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.67%2.1%2026-03-07 14:35