Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Charlton Athletic v Portsmouth

2026-09-12 14:00 UTC — Championship

Resultado del partido

51 corredores (14 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Charlton Athletic (Local)

Predicción 36.67%2.73momio equitativo
EV -2.82%
Ventaja -1.06%
Kelly -1.71%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.65

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.91%36.70%36.67%38.06%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.302.502.502.6543.48%39.96%40.00%37.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Portsmouth (Visitante)

Predicción 33.86%2.95momio equitativo
EV +1.59%
Ventaja +0.529%
Kelly +0.793%
Crecimiento +0.013%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.03%33.77%33.86%34.88%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.452.772.763.0040.82%36.04%36.23%33.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 29.47%3.39momio equitativo
EV -2.76%
Ventaja -0.836%
Kelly -1.20%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.06%29.53%29.47%30.70%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.003.133.103.3033.33%31.93%32.26%30.30%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Charlton Athletic (Local): 36.67%; Portsmouth (Visitante): 33.86%; Empate: 29.47%. Para Portsmouth (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.95. 3 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 3.00, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +1.59%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (51 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -6.49%E -2.54%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.26%EV +1.59%E +0.529%K +0.793%G +0.013%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.78%EV -4.23%E -1.30%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-06 17:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -6.49%E -2.54%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.26%EV +1.59%E +0.529%K +0.793%G +0.013%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.78%EV -4.23%E -1.30%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-06 17:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -6.49%E -2.54%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.26%EV +1.59%E +0.529%K +0.793%G +0.013%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.78%EV -4.23%E -1.30%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-06 17:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -10.16%E -4.15%K -7.00%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -1.80%E -0.621%K -0.947%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -8.65%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-06 17:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -10.16%E -4.15%K -7.00%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -1.80%E -0.621%K -0.947%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -8.65%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-06 17:05
Casumo🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -10.16%E -4.15%K -7.00%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -1.80%E -0.621%K -0.947%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -8.65%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-06 17:05
Unibet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -10.16%E -4.15%K -7.00%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -1.80%E -0.621%K -0.947%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -8.65%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-06 17:05
Bally Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -10.16%E -4.15%K -7.00%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -1.80%E -0.621%K -0.947%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -8.65%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-06 17:10
betPARX🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -10.16%E -4.15%K -7.00%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -1.80%E -0.621%K -0.947%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -8.65%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-06 17:05
Grosvenor🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.06%EV -10.89%E -4.48%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.11%EV -2.48%E -0.860%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -8.65%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-06 17:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.91%EV -2.82%E -1.06%K -1.71%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.39%EV -3.49%E -1.23%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.70%EV -8.65%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-06 13:49
BetRivers🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -11.99%E -5.00%K -8.56%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.03%EV -3.49%E -1.23%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.93%EV -10.13%E -3.32%K -4.94%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-06 17:05
TABtouch🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -11.99%E -5.00%K -8.56%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.03%EV -3.49%E -1.23%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.93%EV -10.13%E -3.32%K -4.94%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-06 17:15
Codere (IT)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.81%EV -4.66%E -1.79%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.18%EV -5.19%E -1.85%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.00%EV -2.76%E -0.836%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-06 13:20
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.65%EV -4.66%E -1.79%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.03%EV -5.19%E -1.85%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.32%EV -4.23%E -1.30%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-06 13:20
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.65%EV -4.66%E -1.79%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.03%EV -5.19%E -1.85%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.32%EV -4.23%E -1.30%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-06 13:20
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.48%EV -4.66%E -1.79%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.88%EV -5.19%E -1.85%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.64%EV -5.71%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-06 13:28
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.93%EV -6.49%E -2.54%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -5.19%E -1.85%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -5.71%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-06 13:20
BetMGM🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.93%EV -6.49%E -2.54%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -5.19%E -1.85%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -5.71%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-06 13:28
FanDuel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.93%EV -6.49%E -2.54%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -5.19%E -1.85%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -5.71%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-06 13:25
PMU (FR)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.83%EV -12.72%E -5.35%K -9.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.16%EV -5.19%E -1.85%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.01%EV -11.60%E -3.87%K -5.80%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-06 17:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.83%EV -12.72%E -5.35%K -9.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.16%EV -5.19%E -1.85%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.01%EV -11.60%E -3.87%K -5.80%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-06 17:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.83%EV -12.72%E -5.35%K -9.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.16%EV -5.19%E -1.85%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.01%EV -11.60%E -3.87%K -5.80%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-06 17:05
GTbets🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.11%EV -6.86%E -2.70%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 33.79%EV -5.52%E -1.98%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.10%EV -4.53%E -1.40%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-06 13:30
NordicBet🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 36.22%EV -4.29%E -1.64%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.25%EV -6.54%E -2.37%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.54%EV -5.71%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-06 14:10
Betsson🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 36.22%EV -4.29%E -1.64%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.25%EV -6.54%E -2.37%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.54%EV -5.71%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-06 14:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.26%EV -4.66%E -1.79%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.28%EV -6.88%E -2.50%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -5.71%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-06 13:29
Betr (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -6.49%E -2.54%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.19%EV -6.88%E -2.50%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -4.23%E -1.30%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 13:20
Bet Right🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -6.49%E -2.54%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.19%EV -6.88%E -2.50%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -4.23%E -1.30%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 13:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.09%EV -4.66%E -1.79%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -6.88%E -2.50%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -7.18%E -2.28%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 13:25
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.09%EV -4.66%E -1.79%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -6.88%E -2.50%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -7.18%E -2.28%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 13:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -6.49%E -2.54%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -6.88%E -2.50%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -5.71%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-06 13:20
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -8.32%E -3.33%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -6.88%E -2.50%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -8.65%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-06 13:25
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -8.32%E -3.33%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -6.88%E -2.50%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -11.60%E -3.87%K -5.80%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-06 14:09
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -8.32%E -3.33%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -6.88%E -2.50%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -11.60%E -3.87%K -5.80%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-06 14:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -8.32%E -3.33%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -6.88%E -2.50%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -11.60%E -3.87%K -5.80%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-06 14:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -8.32%E -3.33%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -6.88%E -2.50%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -11.60%E -3.87%K -5.80%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-06 14:10
1xBet🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 36.43%EV -6.12%E -2.39%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 34.42%EV -8.23%E -3.04%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.15%EV -5.71%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 13:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 36.43%EV -6.12%E -2.39%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 34.42%EV -8.23%E -3.04%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.15%EV -5.71%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 13:45
LeoVegas🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -8.32%E -3.33%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -8.57%E -3.17%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -5.71%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-06 13:20
PlayUp🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.14%EV -6.49%E -2.54%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.13%EV -8.57%E -3.17%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.73%EV -8.65%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-06 13:44
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -8.32%E -3.33%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -8.57%E -3.17%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -8.65%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-06 13:25
betano_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -8.32%E -3.33%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -8.57%E -3.17%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -8.65%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-06 14:48
Bet Victor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -8.32%E -3.33%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -8.57%E -3.17%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -8.65%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-06 14:45
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -8.32%E -3.33%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -8.57%E -3.17%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -11.60%E -3.87%K -5.80%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-06 18:55
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -8.32%E -3.33%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -11.28%E -4.31%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -5.71%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-06 19:19
ReBet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.70%EV -10.89%E -4.48%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 34.16%EV -11.62%E -4.45%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 29.14%EV -9.83%E -3.21%K -4.77%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-06 13:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -11.99%E -5.00%K -8.56%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.53%EV -11.96%E -4.60%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -5.71%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-06 13:20
Unibet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.39%EV -13.82%E -5.88%K -10.24%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.80%EV -11.96%E -4.60%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.81%EV -10.13%E -3.32%K -4.94%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-06 14:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.32%EV -13.82%E -5.88%K -10.24%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.73%EV -11.96%E -4.60%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 28.95%EV -10.72%E -3.54%K -5.28%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-06 13:24
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 36.96%EV -15.66%E -6.81%K -12.04%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 34.70%EV -17.04%E -6.95%K -11.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.34%EV -11.60%E -3.87%K -5.80%G +0.000%17.6%2026-09-06 13:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets2.40I 41.67%NM 36.63%2.58I 38.76%NM 34.07%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.30%13.8%2026-09-06 13:20
Kalshi2.27I 44.05%NM 38.25%2.56I 39.06%NM 33.92%3.12I 32.05%NM 27.83%15.2%2026-09-06 20:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-09-06 16:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-09-06 16:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-09-06 16:05