Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cardiff City v Watford

Kickoff: 2026-10-13 18:45 UTC

Final: Cardiff City 5–1 Watford

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cardiff City (Local)

Prediction 57.53%1.74fair odd
EV -3.34%
Edge -1.99%
Kelly -4.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.70%57.42%57.60%58.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.631.641.6865.79%61.28%60.98%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Watford (Visit)

Prediction 20.43%4.89fair odd
EV -1.12%
Edge -0.230%
Kelly -0.290%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.13%20.49%20.42%21.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.504.504.8424.39%22.23%22.22%20.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.03%4.54fair odd
EV -0.843%
Edge -0.187%
Kelly -0.241%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.03%22.10%21.98%23.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.214.204.5025.97%23.77%23.81%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cardiff City (Local): 57.53%; Watford (Visit): 20.43%; Draw: 22.03%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.54. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.50, with an expected value of -0.843%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.69%EV -3.34%E -1.99%K -4.92%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%EV -8.06%E -1.79%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.15%EV -5.25%E -1.22%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-13 17:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.69%EV -3.34%E -1.99%K -4.92%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%EV -8.06%E -1.79%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.15%EV -5.25%E -1.22%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-13 17:54
Svenska Spel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.69%EV -3.34%E -1.99%K -4.92%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%EV -8.06%E -1.79%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.15%EV -5.25%E -1.22%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-13 17:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.65%EV -3.34%E -1.99%K -4.92%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -6.02%E -1.31%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.66%EV -7.45%E -1.77%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-13 18:30
LeoVegas🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.12%EV -3.34%E -1.99%K -4.92%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -10.10%E -2.30%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.45%EV -7.45%E -1.77%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-13 18:29
Pinnacle🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.84%EV -3.92%E -2.35%K -5.85%G +0.000%4.84I 20.66%NM 19.96%EV -1.12%E -0.230%K -0.290%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.20%EV -4.15%E -0.954%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-13 18:35
DraftKings🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.64%EV -3.92%E -2.35%K -5.85%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.48%EV -3.98%E -0.846%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.88%EV -3.05%E -0.692%K -0.896%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-13 17:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.83%EV -3.92%E -2.35%K -5.85%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%EV -8.06%E -1.79%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.07%EV -5.25%E -1.22%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-13 18:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.54%EV -3.92%E -2.35%K -5.85%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -8.06%E -1.79%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.48%EV -7.45%E -1.77%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-13 18:29
LowVig.ag🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.91%EV -4.49%E -2.71%K -6.81%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.24%EV -2.95%E -0.622%K -0.788%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV -3.05%E -0.692%K -0.896%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-13 17:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.91%EV -4.49%E -2.71%K -6.81%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.24%EV -2.95%E -0.622%K -0.788%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV -3.05%E -0.692%K -0.896%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-13 17:40
SportsBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.77%EV -5.07%E -3.07%K -7.80%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.07%EV -2.95%E -0.622%K -0.788%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.17%EV -5.25%E -1.22%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-13 18:34
BetUS🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.49%EV -5.07%E -3.07%K -7.80%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.18%EV -3.98%E -0.846%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.32%EV -6.35%E -1.49%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-13 18:34
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.48%EV -5.07%E -3.07%K -7.80%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.62%EV -6.02%E -1.31%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.90%EV -4.59%E -1.06%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-13 17:50
Unibet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.43%EV -5.07%E -3.07%K -7.80%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.40%EV -11.13%E -2.56%K -3.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -7.45%E -1.77%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-13 17:55
Casumo🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.43%EV -5.07%E -3.07%K -7.80%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.40%EV -11.13%E -2.56%K -3.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -7.45%E -1.77%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-13 17:54
Unibet (NL)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.43%EV -5.07%E -3.07%K -7.80%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.40%EV -11.13%E -2.56%K -3.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -7.45%E -1.77%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-13 17:54
Unibet (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.43%EV -5.07%E -3.07%K -7.80%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.40%EV -11.13%E -2.56%K -3.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -7.45%E -1.77%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-13 17:54
betPARX🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.43%EV -5.07%E -3.07%K -7.80%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.40%EV -11.13%E -2.56%K -3.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -7.45%E -1.77%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-13 17:54
Bally Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.43%EV -5.07%E -3.07%K -7.80%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.40%EV -11.13%E -2.56%K -3.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -7.45%E -1.77%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-13 17:59
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.29%EV -5.07%E -3.07%K -7.80%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.85%EV -13.17%E -3.10%K -4.05%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.85%EV -6.35%E -1.49%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-13 17:54
888sport🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.21%EV -5.07%E -3.07%K -7.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -8.06%E -1.79%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -11.86%E -2.97%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-13 18:19
888sport (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.21%EV -5.07%E -3.07%K -7.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -8.06%E -1.79%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -11.86%E -2.97%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-13 18:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.21%EV -5.07%E -3.07%K -7.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -8.06%E -1.79%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -11.86%E -2.97%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-13 18:20
William Hill🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.21%EV -5.07%E -3.07%K -7.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -8.06%E -1.79%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -11.86%E -2.97%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-13 18:19
Grosvenor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.99%EV -5.07%E -3.07%K -7.80%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.48%EV -12.15%E -2.83%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.53%EV -9.66%E -2.36%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-13 17:55
NordicBet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.70%EV -5.64%E -3.44%K -8.82%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.35%EV -5.00%E -1.07%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.31I 23.20%NM 21.95%EV -5.03%E -1.17%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-13 18:20
GTbets🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.44%EV -5.64%E -3.44%K -8.82%G +0.000%4.68I 21.37%NM 20.13%EV -4.38%E -0.937%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -7.45%E -1.77%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-13 13:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.99%EV -5.64%E -3.44%K -8.82%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.61%EV -13.17%E -3.10%K -4.05%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -9.66%E -2.36%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-13 17:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.85%EV -5.64%E -3.44%K -8.82%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -14.19%E -3.38%K -4.43%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.34%EV -9.66%E -2.36%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-13 17:55
Coolbet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.36%EV -6.22%E -3.82%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -2.95%E -0.622%K -0.788%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.62%EV -3.05%E -0.692%K -0.896%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-13 18:39
PlayUp🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.83%EV -6.22%E -3.82%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -8.06%E -1.79%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.59%EV -9.66%E -2.36%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-13 18:19
BetRivers🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.00%EV -6.22%E -3.82%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.73%EV -14.19%E -3.38%K -4.43%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -9.66%E -2.36%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-12 08:04
TABtouch🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.00%EV -6.22%E -3.82%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.73%EV -14.19%E -3.38%K -4.43%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -9.66%E -2.36%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-12 08:05
betfred_uk🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.41%EV -6.79%E -4.19%K -10.96%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.57%EV -6.02%E -1.31%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.03%EV -0.843%E -0.187%K -0.241%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-13 18:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.38%EV -6.79%E -4.19%K -10.96%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.12%EV -3.98%E -0.846%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.50%EV -3.05%E -0.692%K -0.896%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-13 18:40
Fanatics🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.21%EV -6.79%E -4.19%K -10.96%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.85%EV -2.95%E -0.622%K -0.788%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.93%EV -5.25%E -1.22%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-13 17:50
Bet Right🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.13%EV -6.79%E -4.19%K -10.96%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -6.02%E -1.31%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -3.05%E -0.692%K -0.896%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-13 18:39
Betsson🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.84%EV -6.79%E -4.19%K -10.96%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -6.02%E -1.31%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%EV -5.25%E -1.22%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-13 18:19
Sky Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.67%EV -6.79%E -4.19%K -10.96%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -8.06%E -1.79%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.57%EV -4.59%E -1.06%K -1.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-13 17:54
Bovada🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -6.79%E -4.19%K -10.96%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%EV -6.02%E -1.31%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -7.45%E -1.77%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-13 18:23
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.28%EV -6.79%E -4.19%K -10.96%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.62%EV -8.06%E -1.79%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.09%EV -7.45%E -1.77%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-13 17:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.98%EV -6.79%E -4.19%K -10.96%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -8.06%E -1.79%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.51%EV -9.66%E -2.36%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-13 18:34
betano_uk🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.45%EV -7.37%E -4.58%K -12.08%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.81%EV -2.95%E -0.622%K -0.788%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.73%EV -4.59%E -1.06%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-13 17:50
Bet Victor🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.45%EV -7.37%E -4.58%K -12.08%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.81%EV -2.95%E -0.622%K -0.788%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.73%EV -4.59%E -1.06%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-13 18:19
1xBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.09%EV -7.37%E -4.58%K -12.08%G +0.000%4.64I 21.55%NM 20.16%EV -5.20%E -1.12%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.75%EV -5.25%E -1.22%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-13 13:49
Betway🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.43%EV -7.37%E -4.58%K -12.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -8.06%E -1.79%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.02%EV -7.45%E -1.77%K -2.33%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-13 18:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.70%EV -7.37%E -4.58%K -12.08%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.87%EV -16.23%E -3.96%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.42%EV -11.86%E -2.97%K -3.95%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-13 17:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.86%EV -7.95%E -4.97%K -13.24%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.80%EV -16.23%E -3.96%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -11.86%E -2.97%K -3.95%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-13 18:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.55%EV -8.52%E -5.36%K -14.44%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.81%EV -3.98%E -0.846%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.65%EV -5.25%E -1.22%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-13 13:44
FanDuel🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.25%EV -8.52%E -5.36%K -14.44%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.70%EV -3.98%E -0.846%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.05%EV -7.45%E -1.77%K -2.33%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-13 18:34
theScore Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 57.89%EV -8.52%E -5.36%K -14.44%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.45%EV -8.06%E -1.79%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.66%EV -6.35%E -1.49%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-13 16:54
Betclic (FR)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 56.22%EV -8.52%E -5.36%K -14.44%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.03%EV -13.17%E -3.10%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 22.75%EV -13.40%E -3.41%K -4.57%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-13 18:28
Tipico (DE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.48%EV -9.67%E -6.16%K -16.97%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -1.93%E -0.403%K -0.509%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -9.66%E -2.36%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-13 18:34
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.22%EV -9.67%E -6.16%K -16.97%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.39%EV -14.19%E -3.38%K -4.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.39%EV -7.45%E -1.77%K -2.33%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-13 18:19
NetBet (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 56.76%EV -11.97%E -7.83%K -22.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.68%EV -14.19%E -3.38%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.56%EV -15.17%E -3.94%K -5.32%G +0.000%15.1%2026-10-13 18:29
Unibet (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 57.23%EV -12.55%E -8.26%K -24.13%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.47%EV -13.17%E -3.10%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.30%EV -14.06%E -3.61%K -4.85%G +0.000%15.0%2026-10-13 18:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.86%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.52%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.62%0.5%2026-10-13 18:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.86%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.52%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.62%0.5%2026-10-13 18:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.86%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.52%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.62%0.5%2026-10-13 18:40
Matchbook◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.86%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.52%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.62%0.5%2026-10-13 18:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.86%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.52%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.62%0.5%2026-10-13 18:40
Kalshi◎1.67I 59.88%NM 58.79%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.64%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.58%1.9%2026-10-13 17:50