Bristol City v Millwall

2026-08-15 14:00 — Championship

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (10 in analysis)

Option 1: Bristol City (Local)

Odds

2.2045.45%Min

2.4141.49%Mean

2.4041.67%Median

2.4840.32%Max

Consensus probabilities

36.31%2.754Min

39.33%2.543Max

38.57%2.593Mean

38.63%2.589Median

38.72%2.582IQM

38.62%2.589Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.48 under the IQM model: 38.72%

EV -3.97%Edge -1.60%Kelly -2.68%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Millwall (Visit)

Odds

2.4540.82%Min

2.6837.37%Mean

2.6238.17%Median

2.9134.36%Max

Consensus probabilities

32.22%3.103Min

34.94%2.862Max

33.39%2.995Mean

32.98%3.032Median

33.18%3.014IQM

33.37%2.996Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.91 under the IQM model: 33.18%

EV -3.45%Edge -1.19%Kelly -1.81%Growth +0.000%

Option 3: Draw

Odds

3.1032.26%Min

3.2730.62%Mean

3.2530.77%Median

3.5028.57%Max

Consensus probabilities

26.41%3.786Min

29.05%3.442Max

28.05%3.566Mean

28.39%3.522Median

28.10%3.559IQM

28.01%3.571Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.50 under the IQM model: 28.10%

EV -1.65%Edge -0.471%Kelly -0.660%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Bristol City (Local) ▼	Millwall (Visit)	Draw	Margin	Updated
Bally Bet	2.48I 40.32% NM 36.48%EV -3.97% E -1.60% K -2.68% G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46% NM 34.80%EV -13.74% E -5.28% K -8.59% G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75% NM 28.72%EV -11.48% E -3.65% K -5.34% G +0.000%	10.5%	2026-06-30 05:59
betPARX	2.48I 40.32% NM 36.48%EV -3.97% E -1.60% K -2.68% G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46% NM 34.80%EV -13.74% E -5.28% K -8.59% G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75% NM 28.72%EV -11.48% E -3.65% K -5.34% G +0.000%	10.5%	2026-06-30 05:59
Grosvenor	2.48I 40.32% NM 36.48%EV -3.97% E -1.60% K -2.68% G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46% NM 34.80%EV -13.74% E -5.28% K -8.59% G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75% NM 28.72%EV -11.48% E -3.65% K -5.34% G +0.000%	10.5%	2026-06-30 06:19
LeoVegas (SE)	2.48I 40.32% NM 36.48%EV -3.97% E -1.60% K -2.68% G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46% NM 34.80%EV -13.74% E -5.28% K -8.59% G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75% NM 28.72%EV -11.48% E -3.65% K -5.34% G +0.000%	10.5%	2026-06-30 06:19
Unibet (NL)	2.48I 40.32% NM 36.48%EV -3.97% E -1.60% K -2.68% G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46% NM 34.80%EV -13.74% E -5.28% K -8.59% G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75% NM 28.72%EV -11.48% E -3.65% K -5.34% G +0.000%	10.5%	2026-06-30 06:19
Unibet (SE)	2.48I 40.32% NM 36.48%EV -3.97% E -1.60% K -2.68% G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46% NM 34.80%EV -13.74% E -5.28% K -8.59% G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75% NM 28.72%EV -11.48% E -3.65% K -5.34% G +0.000%	10.5%	2026-06-30 06:19
Casumo	2.48I 40.32% NM 36.48%EV -3.97% E -1.60% K -2.68% G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46% NM 34.80%EV -13.74% E -5.28% K -8.59% G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75% NM 28.72%EV -11.48% E -3.65% K -5.34% G +0.000%	10.5%	2026-06-30 06:19
Svenska Spel	2.48I 40.32% NM 36.48%EV -3.97% E -1.60% K -2.68% G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46% NM 34.80%EV -13.74% E -5.28% K -8.59% G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75% NM 28.72%EV -11.48% E -3.65% K -5.34% G +0.000%	10.5%	2026-06-30 06:19
ATG (SE)	2.48I 40.32% NM 36.48%EV -3.97% E -1.60% K -2.68% G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46% NM 34.80%EV -13.74% E -5.28% K -8.59% G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75% NM 28.72%EV -11.48% E -3.65% K -5.34% G +0.000%	10.5%	2026-06-30 06:19
TABtouch	2.48I 40.32% NM 36.48%EV -3.97% E -1.60% K -2.68% G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46% NM 34.80%EV -13.74% E -5.28% K -8.59% G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75% NM 28.72%EV -11.48% E -3.65% K -5.34% G +0.000%	10.5%	2026-06-30 06:30
Unibet	2.48I 40.32% NM 36.48%EV -3.97% E -1.60% K -2.68% G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46% NM 34.80%EV -13.74% E -5.28% K -8.59% G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75% NM 28.72%EV -11.48% E -3.65% K -5.34% G +0.000%	10.5%	2026-06-30 06:49
BetRivers	2.48I 40.32% NM 36.48%EV -3.97% E -1.60% K -2.68% G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46% NM 34.80%EV -13.74% E -5.28% K -8.59% G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75% NM 28.72%EV -11.48% E -3.65% K -5.34% G +0.000%	10.5%	2026-06-30 14:40
Virgin Bet	2.48I 40.32% NM 36.31%EV -3.97% E -1.60% K -2.68% G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46% NM 34.64%EV -13.74% E -5.28% K -8.59% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 29.05%EV -12.89% E -4.16% K -6.14% G +0.000%	11.0%	2026-06-30 06:19
LiveScore Bet	2.48I 40.32% NM 36.31%EV -3.97% E -1.60% K -2.68% G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46% NM 34.64%EV -13.74% E -5.28% K -8.59% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 29.05%EV -12.89% E -4.16% K -6.14% G +0.000%	11.0%	2026-06-30 06:19
Codere (IT)	2.46I 40.65% NM 38.74%EV -4.74% E -1.93% K -3.25% G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71% NM 34.03%EV -7.10% E -2.54% K -3.95% G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57% NM 27.23%EV -1.65% E -0.471% K -0.660% G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-07-03 00:40
1xBet	2.43I 41.15% NM 38.53%EV -5.90% E -2.43% K -4.13% G +0.000%	2.86I 34.97% NM 32.74%EV -5.11% E -1.79% K -2.75% G +0.000%	3.26I 30.67% NM 28.72%EV -8.39% E -2.57% K -3.71% G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-07-03 22:50
Pinnacle	2.42I 41.32% NM 38.95%EV -6.29% E -2.60% K -4.43% G +0.000%	2.91I 34.36% NM 32.39%EV -3.45% E -1.19% K -1.81% G +0.000%	3.29I 30.40% NM 28.65%EV -7.55% E -2.29% K -3.30% G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-07-02 19:50
Marathon Bet	2.41I 41.49% NM 38.69%EV -6.68% E -2.77% K -4.74% G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09% NM 32.71%EV -5.44% E -1.91% K -2.94% G +0.000%	3.26I 30.67% NM 28.60%EV -8.39% E -2.57% K -3.71% G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-07-04 11:54
SportsBet	2.40I 41.67% NM 39.33%EV -7.07% E -2.94% K -5.05% G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71% NM 33.71%EV -7.10% E -2.54% K -3.95% G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57% NM 26.97%EV -1.65% E -0.471% K -0.660% G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-02 19:50
Betr (AU)	2.40I 41.67% NM 39.33%EV -7.07% E -2.94% K -5.05% G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71% NM 33.71%EV -7.10% E -2.54% K -3.95% G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57% NM 26.97%EV -1.65% E -0.471% K -0.660% G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-02 19:50
betfred_uk	2.40I 41.67% NM 39.33%EV -7.07% E -2.94% K -5.05% G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71% NM 33.71%EV -7.10% E -2.54% K -3.95% G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57% NM 26.97%EV -1.65% E -0.471% K -0.660% G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-02 19:49
FanDuel	2.40I 41.67% NM 39.02%EV -7.07% E -2.94% K -5.05% G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71% NM 33.44%EV -7.10% E -2.54% K -3.95% G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41% NM 27.54%EV -4.46% E -1.31% K -1.86% G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-07-02 19:50
Sky Bet	2.40I 41.67% NM 38.78%EV -7.07% E -2.94% K -5.05% G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36% NM 33.84%EV -8.76% E -3.19% K -5.01% G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41% NM 27.37%EV -4.46% E -1.31% K -1.86% G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-07-02 19:50
DraftKings	2.40I 41.67% NM 38.75%EV -7.07% E -2.94% K -5.05% G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09% NM 32.63%EV -5.44% E -1.91% K -2.94% G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77% NM 28.62%EV -8.67% E -2.67% K -3.86% G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-07-02 19:49
LeoVegas	2.40I 41.67% NM 38.22%EV -7.07% E -2.94% K -5.05% G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04% NM 33.98%EV -10.42% E -3.86% K -6.13% G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30% NM 27.80%EV -7.27% E -2.20% K -3.16% G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-07-03 00:40
William Hill	2.40I 41.67% NM 38.14%EV -7.07% E -2.94% K -5.05% G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17% NM 34.94%EV -13.08% E -4.99% K -8.07% G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41% NM 26.92%EV -4.46% E -1.31% K -1.86% G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-06-26 10:29
888sport	2.40I 41.67% NM 38.14%EV -7.07% E -2.94% K -5.05% G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17% NM 34.94%EV -13.08% E -4.99% K -8.07% G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41% NM 26.92%EV -4.46% E -1.31% K -1.86% G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-06-26 12:09
888sport (SE)	2.40I 41.67% NM 38.14%EV -7.07% E -2.94% K -5.05% G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17% NM 34.94%EV -13.08% E -4.99% K -8.07% G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41% NM 26.92%EV -4.46% E -1.31% K -1.86% G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-06-26 12:09
Mr Green (SE)	2.40I 41.67% NM 38.14%EV -7.07% E -2.94% K -5.05% G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17% NM 34.94%EV -13.08% E -4.99% K -8.07% G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41% NM 26.92%EV -4.46% E -1.31% K -1.86% G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-06-26 12:19
Unibet (UK)	2.38I 42.02% NM 38.74%EV -7.84% E -3.29% K -5.68% G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04% NM 34.15%EV -10.42% E -3.86% K -6.13% G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41% NM 27.12%EV -4.46% E -1.31% K -1.86% G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-07-03 00:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)	2.38I 42.02% NM 36.43%EV -7.84% E -3.29% K -5.68% G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00% NM 34.68%EV -17.06% E -6.82% K -11.37% G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33% NM 28.90%EV -15.70% E -5.23% K -7.85% G +0.000%	15.4%	2026-06-25 21:50
ReBet	2.36I 42.37% NM 38.49%EV -8.61% E -3.65% K -6.33% G +0.000%	2.66I 37.59% NM 34.15%EV -11.75% E -4.42% K -7.08% G +0.000%	3.32I 30.12% NM 27.36%EV -6.71% E -2.02% K -2.89% G +0.000%	10.1%	2026-07-03 00:35
Tipico (DE)	2.35I 42.55% NM 39.08%EV -9.00% E -3.83% K -6.67% G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09% NM 32.22%EV -5.44% E -1.91% K -2.94% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.70%EV -10.08% E -3.15% K -4.58% G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-07-05 09:05
Paddy Power	2.30I 43.48% NM 39.23%EV -10.94% E -4.76% K -8.41% G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04% NM 33.42%EV -10.42% E -3.86% K -6.13% G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30% NM 27.34%EV -7.27% E -2.20% K -3.16% G +0.000%	10.8%	2026-07-02 19:48
Winamax (DE)	2.30I 43.48% NM 39.05%EV -10.94% E -4.76% K -8.41% G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46% NM 34.54%EV -13.74% E -5.28% K -8.59% G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41% NM 26.41%EV -4.46% E -1.31% K -1.86% G +0.000%	11.4%	2026-07-03 00:40
BoyleSports	2.25I 44.44% NM 39.08%EV -12.87% E -5.72% K -10.30% G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04% NM 32.56%EV -10.42% E -3.86% K -6.13% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 28.36%EV -12.89% E -4.16% K -6.14% G +0.000%	13.7%	2026-07-04 10:05
Unibet (FR)	2.20I 45.45% NM 39.21%EV -14.81% E -6.73% K -12.34% G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22% NM 33.83%EV -15.40% E -6.04% K -9.93% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 26.96%EV -10.08% E -3.15% K -4.58% G +0.000%	15.9%	2026-07-03 00:39
Winamax (FR)	2.20I 45.45% NM 38.52%EV -14.81% E -6.73% K -12.34% G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82% NM 34.59%EV -18.72% E -7.64% K -12.91% G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75% NM 26.90%EV -11.48% E -3.65% K -5.34% G +0.000%	18.0%	2026-07-03 00:39
Betclic (FR)	2.17I 46.08% NM 39.11%EV -15.97% E -7.36% K -13.65% G +0.000%	2.52I 39.68% NM 33.68%EV -16.39% E -6.51% K -10.79% G +0.000%	3.12I 32.05% NM 27.20%EV -12.33% E -3.95% K -5.81% G +0.000%	17.8%	2026-07-03 00:40

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (4)

Bookmaker	Bristol City (Local)	Millwall (Visit)	Draw	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)	2.40I 41.67%	2.96I 33.78%	3.35I 29.85%	5.3%	2026-07-05 10:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)	2.40I 41.67%	2.96I 33.78%	3.35I 29.85%	5.3%	2026-07-05 10:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)	2.40I 41.67%	2.92I 34.25%	3.35I 29.85%	5.8%	2026-07-05 10:10
Smarkets	2.24I 44.64%	2.52I 39.68%	3.10I 32.26%	16.6%	2026-07-03 00:40