Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Viborg FF v FC Nordsjaelland

2026-09-20 16:00 UTC — Denmark Superliga

Resultado del partido

41 corredores (12 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Viborg FF (Local)

Predicción 34.61%2.89momio equitativo
EV -4.81%
Ventaja -1.75%
Kelly -2.75%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
33.69%34.70%34.62%37.64%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.352.582.602.7542.55%38.78%38.46%36.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

FC Nordsjaelland (Visitante)

Predicción 39.48%2.53momio equitativo
EV -1.30%
Ventaja -0.518%
Kelly -0.864%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.83%39.45%39.49%41.10%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.102.342.352.5047.62%42.74%42.55%40.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 25.90%3.86momio equitativo
EV +3.61%
Ventaja +0.904%
Kelly +1.20%
Crecimiento +0.044%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.99%25.86%25.89%27.29%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.403.633.654.0029.41%27.53%27.40%25.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Viborg FF (Local): 34.61%; FC Nordsjaelland (Visitante): 39.48%; Empate: 25.90%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 3.86. 3 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 4.00, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +3.61%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (41 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.63%EV -11.73%E -4.60%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.38%EV -1.30%E -0.518%K -0.864%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.99%EV +3.61%E +0.904%K +1.20%G +0.044%4.2%2026-09-13 16:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.63%EV -11.73%E -4.60%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.38%EV -1.30%E -0.518%K -0.864%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.99%EV +3.61%E +0.904%K +1.20%G +0.044%4.2%2026-09-13 16:05
FanDuel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.31%EV -8.27%E -3.12%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.69%EV -9.19%E -4.00%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV +1.02%E +0.263%K +0.353%G +0.004%6.9%2026-09-13 16:22
Unibet (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.64%EV -14.16%E -5.71%K -9.56%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.11%EV -3.27%E -1.33%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.25%EV -0.271%E -0.070%K -0.095%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 16:05
Casumo🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.64%EV -14.16%E -5.71%K -9.56%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.11%EV -3.27%E -1.33%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.25%EV -0.271%E -0.070%K -0.095%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 16:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.64%EV -14.16%E -5.71%K -9.56%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.11%EV -3.27%E -1.33%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.25%EV -0.271%E -0.070%K -0.095%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 16:05
betPARX🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.64%EV -14.16%E -5.71%K -9.56%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.11%EV -3.27%E -1.33%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.25%EV -0.271%E -0.070%K -0.095%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 16:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.97%EV -6.54%E -2.42%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.18%EV -7.22%E -3.07%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.85%EV -1.57%E -0.412%K -0.559%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-13 16:35
SportsBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.21%EV -10.00%E -3.85%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -11.17%E -4.96%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%EV -1.57%E -0.412%K -0.559%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-13 16:20
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.41%EV -10.00%E -3.85%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -9.19%E -4.00%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -2.86%E -0.763%K -1.04%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-13 16:20
BetRivers🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.39%EV -15.19%E -6.20%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.17%EV -5.24%E -2.18%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -2.86%E -0.763%K -1.04%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-13 16:05
Paddy Power🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.78%EV -10.00%E -3.85%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.10%EV -13.14%E -5.97%K -10.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.11%EV -2.86%E -0.763%K -1.04%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-13 16:20
Bet Right🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.30%EV -10.00%E -3.85%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.90%EV -9.19%E -4.00%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -4.16%E -1.12%K -1.54%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-13 16:35
Unibet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.64%EV -16.93%E -7.05%K -12.09%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.95%EV -6.03%E -2.54%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.41%EV -4.16%E -1.12%K -1.54%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-13 16:05
Grosvenor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.64%EV -16.93%E -7.05%K -12.09%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.95%EV -6.03%E -2.54%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.41%EV -4.16%E -1.12%K -1.54%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-13 16:05
Pinnacle🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 34.77%EV -5.16%E -1.88%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.20%EV -4.06%E -1.67%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.03%EV -5.19%E -1.42%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-13 20:05
LeoVegas🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -6.54%E -2.42%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.77%EV -7.22%E -3.07%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.61%EV -5.45%E -1.49%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-13 16:20
TABtouch🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -16.93%E -7.05%K -12.09%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.83%EV -6.03%E -2.54%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.66%EV -5.45%E -1.49%K -2.06%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-13 16:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.53%EV -17.62%E -7.40%K -12.77%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.01%EV -7.22%E -3.07%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.47%EV -5.45%E -1.49%K -2.06%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-13 16:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.53%EV -17.62%E -7.40%K -12.77%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.01%EV -7.22%E -3.07%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.47%EV -5.45%E -1.49%K -2.06%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-13 16:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.53%EV -17.62%E -7.40%K -12.77%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.01%EV -7.22%E -3.07%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.47%EV -5.45%E -1.49%K -2.06%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-13 16:05
1xBet🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 34.97%EV -7.58%E -2.84%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.23%EV -6.03%E -2.54%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.79%EV -6.23%E -1.72%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 20:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 34.97%EV -7.58%E -2.84%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.23%EV -6.03%E -2.54%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.79%EV -6.23%E -1.72%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 20:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.92%EV -8.27%E -3.12%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.38%EV -7.22%E -3.07%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -6.75%E -1.87%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-13 16:20
Codere (IT)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.86%EV -8.27%E -3.12%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 39.48%EV -7.61%E -3.25%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.66%EV -6.75%E -1.87%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-13 16:20
PMU (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.57%EV -18.66%E -7.94%K -13.82%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 37.90%EV -8.01%E -3.44%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.53%EV -6.75%E -1.87%K -2.59%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-13 16:05
DraftKings🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.08%EV -6.54%E -2.42%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.00%EV -9.19%E -4.00%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -8.04%E -2.27%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-13 17:39
Suprabets🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 34.54%EV -7.23%E -2.70%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.23%EV -6.82%E -2.89%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.23%EV -8.56%E -2.42%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-13 20:05
Fanatics🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.37%EV -8.27%E -3.12%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.60%EV -9.19%E -4.00%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -9.34%E -2.67%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-13 17:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.08%EV -13.46%E -5.39%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.86%EV -13.14%E -5.97%K -10.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.06%EV -9.34%E -2.67%K -3.73%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-13 16:20
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.76%EV -13.46%E -5.39%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.42%EV -15.11%E -7.03%K -13.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.83%EV -9.34%E -2.67%K -3.73%G +0.000%15.1%2026-09-13 16:25
Betsson🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.98%EV -4.81%E -1.75%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.94%EV -5.24%E -2.18%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.09%EV -10.63%E -3.08%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-13 20:05
NordicBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.98%EV -4.81%E -1.75%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.94%EV -5.24%E -2.18%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.09%EV -10.63%E -3.08%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-13 20:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.09%EV -15.19%E -6.20%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 39.99%EV -15.11%E -7.03%K -13.14%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.92%EV -10.63%E -3.08%K -4.34%G +0.000%16.3%2026-09-13 16:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.30%EV -11.73%E -4.60%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 40.12%EV -13.93%E -6.39%K -11.80%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 25.58%EV -11.41%E -3.34%K -4.71%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-13 16:19
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -4.81%E -1.75%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.98%EV -6.03%E -2.54%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.29%EV -11.93%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-13 17:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -4.81%E -1.75%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.98%EV -6.03%E -2.54%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.29%EV -11.93%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-13 17:51
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -4.81%E -1.75%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.98%EV -6.03%E -2.54%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.29%EV -11.93%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-13 17:50
Betway🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -6.54%E -2.42%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -9.19%E -4.00%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -11.93%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-13 20:05
William Hill🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -6.54%E -2.42%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -9.19%E -4.00%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -11.93%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-13 17:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 33.73%EV -11.73%E -4.60%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.96%EV -17.09%E -8.14%K -15.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.30%EV -11.93%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%16.2%2026-09-13 16:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets2.54I 39.37%NM 34.71%2.24I 44.64%NM 39.36%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.93%13.4%2026-09-13 16:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-09-13 16:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-09-13 16:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-09-13 16:25