The School of Odds

AC Horsens v FC Nordsjaelland

2026-07-26 16:00 — Denmark Superliga

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (5 in analysis)

Option 1: AC Horsens (Local)

Odds
3.2530.77%Min
3.5328.32%Mean
3.5028.57%Median
3.8426.04%Max
Consensus probabilities
24.30%4.115Min
26.59%3.761Max
25.37%3.941Mean
25.48%3.925Median
25.34%3.946IQM
25.34%3.946Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.84 under the IQM model: 25.34%

EV -2.70%Edge -0.702%Kelly -0.950%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: FC Nordsjaelland (Visit)

Odds
1.7158.48%Min
1.8554.01%Mean
1.8753.48%Median
1.9551.28%Max
Consensus probabilities
48.00%2.083Min
49.92%2.003Max
49.12%2.036Mean
49.05%2.039Median
49.07%2.038IQM
49.15%2.035Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.95 under the IQM model: 49.07%

EV -4.32%Edge -2.21%Kelly -4.54%Growth +0.000%

Option 3: Draw

Odds
3.2530.77%Min
3.5628.08%Mean
3.6027.78%Median
3.8026.32%Max
Consensus probabilities
24.46%4.088Min
26.19%3.819Max
25.51%3.920Mean
25.48%3.925Median
25.59%3.908IQM
25.51%3.919Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.80 under the IQM model: 25.59%

EV -2.75%Edge -0.724%Kelly -0.983%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

BookmakerAC Horsens (Local) ▼FC Nordsjaelland (Visit)DrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet3.84I 26.04% NM 24.30%EV -2.70% E -0.702% K -0.950% G +0.000%1.88I 53.19% NM 49.63%EV -7.75% E -4.12% K -8.81% G +0.000%3.58I 27.93% NM 26.07%EV -8.38% E -2.34% K -3.25% G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-04 09:54
1xBet3.83I 26.11% NM 24.48%EV -2.95% E -0.770% K -1.04% G +0.000%1.90I 52.63% NM 49.34%EV -6.77% E -3.56% K -7.52% G +0.000%3.58I 27.93% NM 26.19%EV -8.38% E -2.34% K -3.25% G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-04 10:00
Codere (IT)3.75I 26.67% NM 24.71%EV -4.98% E -1.33% K -1.81% G +0.000%1.87I 53.48% NM 49.55%EV -8.24% E -4.41% K -9.47% G +0.000%3.60I 27.78% NM 25.74%EV -7.87% E -2.19% K -3.03% G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-03 13:00
LeoVegas3.65I 27.40% NM 24.99%EV -7.51% E -2.06% K -2.83% G +0.000%1.85I 54.05% NM 49.31%EV -9.22% E -4.98% K -10.85% G +0.000%3.55I 28.17% NM 25.70%EV -9.15% E -2.58% K -3.59% G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-04 02:45
Betr (AU)3.60I 27.78% NM 26.36%EV -8.78% E -2.44% K -3.38% G +0.000%1.95I 51.28% NM 48.67%EV -4.32% E -2.21% K -4.54% G +0.000%3.80I 26.32% NM 24.97%EV -2.75% E -0.724% K -0.983% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-03 13:05
FanDuel3.60I 27.78% NM 25.82%EV -8.78% E -2.44% K -3.38% G +0.000%1.87I 53.48% NM 49.71%EV -8.24% E -4.41% K -9.47% G +0.000%3.80I 26.32% NM 24.46%EV -2.75% E -0.724% K -0.983% G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-03 13:05
Fanatics3.60I 27.78% NM 25.74%EV -8.78% E -2.44% K -3.38% G +0.000%1.91I 52.36% NM 48.52%EV -6.28% E -3.29% K -6.90% G +0.000%3.60I 27.78% NM 25.74%EV -7.87% E -2.19% K -3.03% G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-03 18:00
888sport3.50I 28.57% NM 26.28%EV -11.31% E -3.23% K -4.53% G +0.000%1.91I 52.36% NM 48.16%EV -6.28% E -3.29% K -6.90% G +0.000%3.60I 27.78% NM 25.55%EV -7.87% E -2.19% K -3.03% G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-04 02:35
Mr Green (SE)3.50I 28.57% NM 26.28%EV -11.31% E -3.23% K -4.53% G +0.000%1.91I 52.36% NM 48.16%EV -6.28% E -3.29% K -6.90% G +0.000%3.60I 27.78% NM 25.55%EV -7.87% E -2.19% K -3.03% G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-04 02:35
888sport (SE)3.50I 28.57% NM 26.28%EV -11.31% E -3.23% K -4.53% G +0.000%1.91I 52.36% NM 48.16%EV -6.28% E -3.29% K -6.90% G +0.000%3.60I 27.78% NM 25.55%EV -7.87% E -2.19% K -3.03% G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-04 02:35
William Hill3.50I 28.57% NM 26.28%EV -11.31% E -3.23% K -4.53% G +0.000%1.91I 52.36% NM 48.16%EV -6.28% E -3.29% K -6.90% G +0.000%3.60I 27.78% NM 25.55%EV -7.87% E -2.19% K -3.03% G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-04 02:35
SportsBet3.50I 28.57% NM 26.19%EV -11.31% E -3.23% K -4.53% G +0.000%1.87I 53.48% NM 49.03%EV -8.24% E -4.41% K -9.47% G +0.000%3.70I 27.03% NM 24.78%EV -5.31% E -1.44% K -1.97% G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-03 13:05
Paddy Power3.50I 28.57% NM 25.88%EV -11.31% E -3.23% K -4.53% G +0.000%1.85I 54.05% NM 48.96%EV -9.22% E -4.98% K -10.85% G +0.000%3.60I 27.78% NM 25.16%EV -7.87% E -2.19% K -3.03% G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-03 13:05
Betclic (FR)3.42I 29.24% NM 24.79%EV -13.34% E -3.90% K -5.51% G +0.000%1.72I 58.14% NM 49.29%EV -15.60% E -9.07% K -21.67% G +0.000%3.27I 30.58% NM 25.92%EV -16.32% E -4.99% K -7.19% G +0.000%18.0%2026-07-03 12:59
Winamax (DE)3.40I 29.41% NM 25.67%EV -13.85% E -4.07% K -5.77% G +0.000%1.78I 56.18% NM 49.03%EV -12.66% E -7.11% K -16.23% G +0.000%3.45I 28.99% NM 25.30%EV -11.71% E -3.39% K -4.78% G +0.000%14.6%2026-07-03 12:55
BoyleSports3.40I 29.41% NM 25.40%EV -13.85% E -4.07% K -5.77% G +0.000%1.73I 57.80% NM 49.92%EV -15.11% E -8.73% K -20.70% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 24.68%EV -10.43% E -2.98% K -4.17% G +0.000%15.8%2026-06-30 21:49
Unibet (FR)3.35I 29.85% NM 25.06%EV -15.11% E -4.51% K -6.43% G +0.000%1.71I 58.48% NM 49.10%EV -16.09% E -9.41% K -22.66% G +0.000%3.25I 30.77% NM 25.83%EV -16.83% E -5.18% K -7.48% G +0.000%19.1%2026-07-03 12:55
Winamax (FR)3.30I 30.30% NM 25.52%EV -16.38% E -4.96% K -7.12% G +0.000%1.72I 58.14% NM 48.96%EV -15.60% E -9.07% K -21.67% G +0.000%3.30I 30.30% NM 25.52%EV -15.55% E -4.71% K -6.76% G +0.000%18.7%2026-07-03 12:55
Sky Bet3.25I 30.77% NM 26.59%EV -17.65% E -5.43% K -7.84% G +0.000%1.80I 55.56% NM 48.00%EV -11.68% E -6.49% K -14.59% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 25.41%EV -12.99% E -3.82% K -5.41% G +0.000%15.7%2026-07-03 13:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerAC Horsens (Local)FC Nordsjaelland (Visit)DrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets3.40I 29.41%1.77I 56.50%3.25I 30.77%16.7%2026-07-03 13:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%1.04I 96.15%1.02I 98.04%190.3%2026-07-01 07:29
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%1.04I 96.15%1.02I 98.04%190.3%2026-07-01 07:29
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%1.04I 96.15%1.02I 98.04%190.3%2026-07-01 07:30