Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

AC Horsens v AGF Aarhus

2026-09-20 14:00 UTC — Denmark Superliga

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

AC Horsens (Local)

Prediction 22.94%4.36fair odd
EV -3.67%
Edge -0.874%
Kelly -1.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.40%22.94%23.04%23.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.944.004.2027.78%25.38%25.00%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AGF Aarhus (Visit)

Prediction 52.69%1.90fair odd
EV -5.15%
Edge -2.86%
Kelly -6.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.52%52.69%52.41%53.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.721.731.8061.73%58.03%57.80%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.37%4.10fair odd
EV -4.96%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -1.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.85%24.37%24.55%24.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.733.753.9028.57%26.83%26.67%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: AC Horsens (Local): 22.94%; AGF Aarhus (Visit): 52.69%; Draw: 24.37%. For AC Horsens (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.36. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.20, with an expected value of -3.67%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betr (AU)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -3.67%E -0.874%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.85%EV -6.20%E -3.49%K -7.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -7.39%E -1.95%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-12 17:00
1xBet🎯4.16I 24.04%NM 22.70%EV -4.59%E -1.10%K -1.45%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.46%EV -5.15%E -2.86%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.85%EV -7.39%E -1.95%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-12 16:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -5.96%E -1.45%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.32%EV -7.78%E -4.45%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -4.96%E -1.27%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 17:10
FanDuel🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.69%EV -5.96%E -1.45%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.46%EV -8.31%E -4.78%K -11.23%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -4.96%E -1.27%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-12 16:49
NordicBet🎯4.05I 24.69%NM 23.04%EV -7.11%E -1.76%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.41%EV -6.20%E -3.49%K -7.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -7.39%E -1.95%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 17:10
Betsson🎯4.05I 24.69%NM 23.04%EV -7.11%E -1.76%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.41%EV -6.20%E -3.49%K -7.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -7.39%E -1.95%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 17:10
SportsBet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -8.26%E -2.06%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.97%EV -8.84%E -5.11%K -12.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -7.39%E -1.95%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-12 16:50
betfred_uk🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -8.26%E -2.06%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -8.84%E -5.11%K -12.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -8.61%E -2.30%K -3.13%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-12 17:00
Paddy Power🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.63%EV -8.26%E -2.06%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.24%EV -10.42%E -6.13%K -14.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.13%EV -8.61%E -2.30%K -3.13%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-12 16:48
LeoVegas🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.20%EV -9.41%E -2.38%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.36%EV -7.78%E -4.45%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -8.61%E -2.30%K -3.13%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-12 17:15
Betclic (FR)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.08%EV -12.85%E -3.38%K -4.59%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 52.21%EV -11.47%E -6.83%K -16.87%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.71%EV -13.49%E -3.80%K -5.29%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-12 17:13
Unibet (FR)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 22.72%EV -12.85%E -3.38%K -4.59%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 53.30%EV -14.64%E -9.03%K -23.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.98%EV -12.27%E -3.41%K -4.72%G +0.000%15.8%2026-09-12 17:11
Winamax (DE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 23.72%EV -15.14%E -4.09%K -5.61%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 52.24%EV -11.47%E -6.83%K -16.87%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.04%EV -11.05%E -3.03%K -4.17%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-12 17:18
Winamax (FR)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 23.91%EV -17.43%E -4.84%K -6.70%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 51.85%EV -12.53%E -7.55%K -18.98%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.24%EV -13.49%E -3.80%K -5.29%G +0.000%16.2%2026-09-12 17:20
Sky Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 23.90%EV -17.43%E -4.84%K -6.70%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 51.52%EV -12.00%E -7.19%K -17.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.58%EV -14.70%E -4.20%K -5.88%G +0.000%16.2%2026-09-12 16:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-09-12 17:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-09-12 17:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-09-12 17:05