The School of Odds
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Vasco da Gama v Independiente Santa Fe

Kickoff: 2026-09-15 22:00 UTC

Final: Vasco da Gama 2–0 Independiente Santa Fe

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vasco da Gama (Local)

Prediction 68.29%1.46fair odd
EV -3.03%
Edge -2.13%
Kelly -7.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.23%68.22%68.43%69.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.361.361.4275.76%73.49%73.53%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Independiente Santa Fe (Visit)

Prediction 10.79%9.26fair odd
EV -0.158%
Edge -0.017%
Kelly -0.019%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 9.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.37%10.82%10.81%12.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.008.298.509.2514.29%12.06%11.76%10.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.92%4.78fair odd
EV -0.649%
Edge -0.137%
Kelly -0.173%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.99%20.96%20.76%22.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.384.334.7525.00%22.83%23.09%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vasco da Gama (Local): 68.29%; Independiente Santa Fe (Visit): 10.79%; Draw: 20.92%. For Independiente Santa Fe (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.26. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 9.25, with an expected value of -0.158%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 68.50%EV -3.03%E -2.13%K -7.21%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.81%EV -2.86%E -0.317%K -0.357%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.70%EV -1.70%E -0.361%K -0.458%G +0.000%2.8%2026-09-15 21:55
Coolbet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.70%EV -4.39%E -3.14%K -10.98%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.40%EV -0.158%E -0.017%K -0.019%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.91%EV -3.79%E -0.823%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-15 20:54
Pinnacle🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 69.02%EV -5.08%E -3.65%K -13.02%G +0.000%9.19I 10.88%NM 10.44%EV -0.806%E -0.088%K -0.098%G +0.000%4.67I 21.41%NM 20.54%EV -2.32%E -0.497%K -0.633%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-15 21:56
1xBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.29%EV -5.08%E -3.65%K -13.02%G +0.000%8.10I 12.35%NM 11.72%EV -12.57%E -1.55%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.99%EV -0.649%E -0.137%K -0.173%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-15 21:50
DraftKings🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.38%EV -5.76%E -4.17%K -15.16%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.10%EV -8.25%E -0.971%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -3.79%E -0.823%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-15 21:55
Bovada🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -5.76%E -4.17%K -15.16%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -13.65%E -1.71%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -5.88%E -1.31%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-15 21:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.26%EV -6.44%E -4.70%K -17.41%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.41%EV -11.49%E -1.40%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -3.79%E -0.823%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-15 21:55
Unibet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.23%EV -6.44%E -4.70%K -17.41%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -8.25%E -0.971%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -5.88%E -1.31%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-15 21:55
Casumo🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.39%EV -7.13%E -5.24%K -19.79%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.94%EV -8.25%E -0.971%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.67%EV -5.88%E -1.31%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-15 21:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.39%EV -7.13%E -5.24%K -19.79%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.94%EV -8.25%E -0.971%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.67%EV -5.88%E -1.31%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-15 21:56
Svenska Spel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.39%EV -7.13%E -5.24%K -19.79%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.94%EV -8.25%E -0.971%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.67%EV -5.88%E -1.31%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-15 21:55
LeoVegas🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.23%EV -7.13%E -5.24%K -19.79%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -13.65%E -1.71%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.17%EV -3.79%E -0.823%K -1.05%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-15 21:55
betfred_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.84%EV -7.13%E -5.24%K -19.79%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.85%EV -8.25%E -0.971%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.31%EV -9.43%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-15 21:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.57%EV -7.13%E -5.24%K -19.79%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.81%EV -8.25%E -0.971%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.62%EV -11.11%E -2.61%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-15 21:55
William Hill🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.39%EV -7.13%E -5.24%K -19.79%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV -8.25%E -0.971%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.82%EV -12.15%E -2.89%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-15 21:45
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.39%EV -7.13%E -5.24%K -19.79%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV -8.25%E -0.971%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.82%EV -12.15%E -2.89%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-15 21:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.39%EV -7.13%E -5.24%K -19.79%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV -8.25%E -0.971%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.82%EV -12.15%E -2.89%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-15 21:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.39%EV -7.13%E -5.24%K -19.79%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV -8.25%E -0.971%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.82%EV -12.15%E -2.89%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-15 21:45
NordicBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.10%EV -7.13%E -5.24%K -19.79%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.37%EV -5.02%E -0.570%K -0.643%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.53%EV -15.29%E -3.78%K -5.01%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-15 21:50
SportsBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.90%EV -7.81%E -5.78%K -22.31%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV -8.25%E -0.971%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.32%EV -10.06%E -2.34%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-15 21:30
Coral🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.46%EV -7.81%E -5.78%K -22.31%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.82%EV -24.44%E -3.49%K -4.07%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.72%EV -9.43%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-15 21:55
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.43%EV -9.17%E -6.90%K -27.80%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.21%EV -13.65%E -1.71%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.35%EV -12.15%E -2.89%K -3.80%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-15 21:30
Sky Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.23%EV -9.17%E -6.90%K -27.80%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.75%EV -19.05%E -2.54%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.02%EV -16.34%E -4.08%K -5.45%G +0.000%13.5%2026-09-15 21:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 67.10%EV -9.86%E -7.47%K -30.80%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.81%EV -19.05%E -2.54%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.09%EV -12.15%E -2.89%K -3.80%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-15 21:56
LiveScore Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 67.10%EV -9.86%E -7.47%K -30.80%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.81%EV -19.05%E -2.54%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.09%EV -12.15%E -2.89%K -3.80%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-15 21:56
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 67.10%EV -9.86%E -7.47%K -30.80%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.81%EV -19.05%E -2.54%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.09%EV -12.15%E -2.89%K -3.80%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-15 21:56
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.41I 70.92%NM 69.99%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.87%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.14%1.3%2026-09-15 21:56
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.41I 70.92%NM 69.99%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.87%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.14%1.3%2026-09-15 21:56
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.41I 70.92%NM 69.99%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.87%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.14%1.3%2026-09-15 21:55
Smarkets◎1.40I 71.43%NM 70.14%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.82%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.04%1.8%2026-09-15 21:56