The School of Odds
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Vasco da Gama v Boca Juniors

Kickoff: 2026-10-21 00:31 UTC

Final: Vasco da Gama 1–3 Boca Juniors

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vasco da Gama (Local)

Prediction 37.15%2.69fair odd
EV +2.15%
Edge +0.784%
Kelly +1.23%
Growth +0.027%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.09%36.98%37.18%39.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.522.502.7545.45%39.64%40.00%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Boca Juniors (Visit)

Prediction 31.81%3.14fair odd
EV -3.92%
Edge -1.30%
Kelly -1.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.88%31.93%31.80%33.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.852.903.0237.74%35.08%34.48%33.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.04%3.22fair odd
EV +1.50%
Edge +0.458%
Kelly +0.659%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 3.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.04%31.09%31.02%32.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.952.953.2735.71%33.90%33.90%30.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vasco da Gama (Local): 37.15%; Boca Juniors (Visit): 31.81%; Draw: 31.04%. For Vasco da Gama (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.69. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.15%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.09%EV +2.15%E +0.784%K +1.23%G +0.027%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.27%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.64%EV -5.33%E -1.75%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-21 00:25
Coolbet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.77%EV +0.298%E +0.110%K +0.175%G +0.001%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.08%EV -7.10%E -2.43%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.15%EV -3.78%E -1.22%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-21 00:28
Unibet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.15%EV -1.56%E -0.589%K -0.945%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.27%EV -10.92%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.58%EV -8.44%E -2.86%K -4.33%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-21 00:25
Casumo🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.15%EV -1.56%E -0.589%K -0.945%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.27%EV -10.92%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.58%EV -8.44%E -2.86%K -4.33%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-21 00:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.15%EV -1.56%E -0.589%K -0.945%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.27%EV -10.92%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.58%EV -8.44%E -2.86%K -4.33%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-21 00:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.15%EV -1.56%E -0.589%K -0.945%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.27%EV -10.92%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.58%EV -8.44%E -2.86%K -4.33%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-21 00:25
Pinnacle🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 37.30%EV -4.16%E -1.61%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.86%EV -3.92%E -1.30%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.84%EV -3.16%E -1.01%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-21 00:25
LeoVegas🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.03%EV -5.27%E -2.07%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.01%EV -6.15%E -2.08%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.96%EV -5.33%E -1.75%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-21 00:30
Bovada🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -5.27%E -2.07%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -6.15%E -2.08%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -8.44%E -2.86%K -4.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-21 00:20
NordicBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV -5.27%E -2.07%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -6.15%E -2.08%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.43%EV -11.54%E -4.05%K -6.24%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-21 00:30
picklebet_au🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -7.13%E -2.85%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.57%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -3.78%E -1.22%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-21 00:25
DraftKings🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.13%E -2.85%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -6.88%E -2.29%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-21 00:30
Codere (IT)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.49%EV -7.13%E -2.85%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.77%EV -6.15%E -2.08%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -5.33%E -1.75%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-21 00:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -7.13%E -2.85%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -6.88%E -2.29%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-21 00:25
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -7.13%E -2.85%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -9.99%E -3.44%K -5.26%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-21 00:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -7.13%E -2.85%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -9.99%E -3.44%K -5.26%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-21 00:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -7.13%E -2.85%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -9.99%E -3.44%K -5.26%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-21 00:25
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -7.13%E -2.85%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -10.92%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.88%E -2.29%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-21 00:25
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -7.13%E -2.85%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -13.09%E -4.68%K -7.27%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-21 00:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.26%EV -7.13%E -2.85%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.26%EV -15.69%E -5.92%K -9.51%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.48%EV -13.09%E -4.68%K -7.27%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-21 00:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.26%EV -7.13%E -2.85%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.26%EV -15.69%E -5.92%K -9.51%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.48%EV -13.09%E -4.68%K -7.27%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-21 00:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.26%EV -7.13%E -2.85%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.26%EV -15.69%E -5.92%K -9.51%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.48%EV -13.09%E -4.68%K -7.27%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-21 00:10
PMU (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.26%EV -7.13%E -2.85%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.26%EV -15.69%E -5.92%K -9.51%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.48%EV -13.09%E -4.68%K -7.27%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-21 00:10
1xBet🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 38.44%EV -8.25%E -3.34%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.52%EV -7.10%E -2.43%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.04%EV +1.50%E +0.458%K +0.659%G +0.010%5.3%2026-10-21 00:29
SportsBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.36%EV -8.99%E -3.67%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.12%EV -9.33%E -3.27%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -6.88%E -2.29%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-21 00:25
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.36%EV -8.99%E -3.67%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.82%EV -10.92%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.82%EV -13.09%E -4.68%K -7.27%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-21 00:20
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.25%EV -10.85%E -4.52%K -7.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.93%EV -10.92%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -9.99%E -3.44%K -5.26%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-21 00:20
Sky Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.03%EV -10.85%E -4.52%K -7.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.32%EV -12.51%E -4.55%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -9.99%E -3.44%K -5.26%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-21 00:29
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.30%EV -18.28%E -8.31%K -15.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.88%EV -10.92%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.82%EV -9.99%E -3.44%K -5.26%G +0.000%15.7%2026-10-21 00:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.36%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.06%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.58%0.6%2026-10-21 00:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.36%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.06%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.58%0.6%2026-10-21 00:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.36%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.06%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.58%0.6%2026-10-21 00:30
Smarkets◎2.54I 39.37%NM 38.09%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.21%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.71%3.4%2026-10-21 00:30