The School of Odds
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Sportivo Trinidense v Olimpia Asunción

Kickoff: 2026-03-05 00:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sportivo Trinidense (Local)

Prediction 21.04%4.75fair odd
EV +3.54%
Edge +0.719%
Kelly +0.902%
Growth +0.032%

assuming max odds 4.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.70%21.00%21.29%22.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.384.354.9224.39%22.85%22.99%20.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Olimpia Asunción (Visit)

Prediction 52.07%1.92fair odd
EV -2.11%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -2.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.74%52.10%51.88%53.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.791.791.8858.82%55.94%55.87%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.89%3.72fair odd
EV -1.87%
Edge -0.511%
Kelly -0.704%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.88%26.90%26.84%27.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.433.403.6530.30%29.16%29.41%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sportivo Trinidense (Local): 21.04%; Olimpia Asunción (Visit): 52.07%; Draw: 26.89%. For Sportivo Trinidense (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.75. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.92, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.54%.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯4.92I 20.33%NM 19.70%EV +3.54%E +0.719%K +0.902%G +0.032%1.81I 55.25%NM 53.54%EV -5.75%E -3.18%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.77%EV -2.67%E -0.739%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-05 00:25
Coolbet🎯4.65I 21.51%NM 20.12%EV -2.14%E -0.461%K -0.588%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.96%EV -6.27%E -3.49%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.92%EV -9.93%E -2.96%K -4.23%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-04 18:20
Bovada🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.35%EV -3.20%E -0.695%K -0.888%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.90%EV -7.84%E -4.43%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.75%EV -5.90%E -1.69%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-05 00:25
William Hill🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV -5.30%E -1.18%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -8.88%E -5.07%K -11.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -11.28%E -3.42%K -4.90%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-05 00:25
888sport🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV -5.30%E -1.18%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -8.88%E -5.07%K -11.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -11.28%E -3.42%K -4.90%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-05 00:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV -5.30%E -1.18%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -8.88%E -5.07%K -11.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -11.28%E -3.42%K -4.90%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-05 00:25
888sport (SE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV -5.30%E -1.18%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -8.88%E -5.07%K -11.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -11.28%E -3.42%K -4.90%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-05 00:25
SportsBet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.24%EV -5.30%E -1.18%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.96%EV -10.44%E -6.07%K -14.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -8.59%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-04 21:35
DraftKings🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.51%EV -7.41%E -1.68%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.57%EV -6.27%E -3.49%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.92%EV -1.87%E -0.511%K -0.704%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-05 00:20
Paddy Power🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.67%EV -7.41%E -1.68%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.58%EV -9.92%E -5.73%K -13.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -8.59%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-04 21:35
Pinnacle🎯4.37I 22.88%NM 21.73%EV -8.04%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.18%EV -5.23%E -2.87%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.09%EV -2.14%E -0.587%K -0.809%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-05 00:20
ATG (SE)🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.95%EV -8.46%E -1.94%K -2.52%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.78%EV -2.11%E -1.12%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.28%EV -5.90%E -1.69%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-05 00:25
Unibet (UK)🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.38%EV -8.46%E -1.94%K -2.52%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.67%EV -6.27%E -3.49%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.96%EV -7.24%E -2.10%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-05 00:25
Coral🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.58%EV -8.88%E -2.05%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.42%EV -11.48%E -6.75%K -16.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.00%EV -11.28%E -3.42%K -4.90%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-05 00:00
Unibet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.02%EV -9.51%E -2.21%K -2.88%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 50.92%EV -3.15%E -1.69%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -5.90%E -1.69%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-05 00:25
Casumo🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -9.51%E -2.21%K -2.88%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.05%EV -3.67%E -1.98%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.98%EV -5.90%E -1.69%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-05 00:25
Unibet (NL)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -9.51%E -2.21%K -2.88%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.05%EV -3.67%E -1.98%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.98%EV -5.90%E -1.69%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-05 00:25
Svenska Spel🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -9.51%E -2.21%K -2.88%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.05%EV -3.67%E -1.98%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.98%EV -5.90%E -1.69%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-05 00:25
NordicBet🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.62%EV -10.56%E -2.49%K -3.25%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.50%EV -8.88%E -5.07%K -11.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -4.56%E -1.28%K -1.79%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-05 00:20
Virgin Bet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.95%EV -11.61%E -2.77%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.93%EV -5.75%E -3.18%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -8.59%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-05 00:25
Sky Bet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.27%EV -11.61%E -2.77%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.65%EV -9.92%E -5.73%K -13.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -11.28%E -3.42%K -4.90%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-04 21:40
LiveScore Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%EV -13.72%E -3.35%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 50.74%EV -6.79%E -3.80%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.11%EV -9.93%E -2.96%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-05 00:25
LeoVegas🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%EV -13.72%E -3.35%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 50.74%EV -6.79%E -3.80%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.11%EV -9.93%E -2.96%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-05 00:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%EV -13.72%E -3.35%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 50.74%EV -6.79%E -3.80%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.11%EV -9.93%E -2.96%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-05 00:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81%1.88I 53.19%NM 52.68%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.51%1.0%2026-03-05 00:25
Matchbook◎5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81%1.88I 53.19%NM 52.68%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.51%1.0%2026-03-05 00:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎5.00I 20.00%NM 19.75%1.87I 53.48%NM 52.81%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.43%1.3%2026-03-05 00:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎5.00I 20.00%NM 19.75%1.87I 53.48%NM 52.81%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.43%1.3%2026-03-05 00:25
Smarkets◎4.90I 20.41%NM 19.88%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.67%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.45%2.6%2026-03-05 00:25