L’École des cotesFrançais
Santos v C.D. Cuenca
Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →
Résultat du match
Santos (Local)
Prévision 71.85%1.39cote équitable
EV -2.28%
Avantage -1.68%
Kelly -6.33%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 1.36
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
69.20%71.85%71.85%72.89%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.251.291.301.3680.00%77.36%76.92%73.53%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
C.D. Cuenca (Visiteur)
Prévision 9.12%10.96cote équitable
EV +0.335%
Avantage +0.030%
Kelly +0.034%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 11.00
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
8.43%9.12%9.23%11.24%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
8.009.7510.0011.0012.50%10.25%10.00%9.09%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Match nul
Prévision 19.02%5.26cote équitable
EV -0.311%
Avantage -0.059%
Kelly -0.073%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 5.24
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
17.98%19.02%18.92%19.91%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.604.884.805.2421.74%20.50%20.83%19.08%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Cotes des opérateurs (22 opérateurs)
Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur ▼ | Match nul | Marge | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.82%EV -4.43%E -3.33%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.68%EV +0.335%E +0.030%K +0.034%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.49%EV -6.78%E -1.38%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-27 00:00 |
| NordicBet | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.85%EV -7.31%E -5.67%K -25.20%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV +0.335%E +0.030%K +0.034%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.72%EV -10.58%E -2.25%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-27 00:20 |
| 1xBet | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.89%EV -6.59%E -5.07%K -21.97%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.02%EV -4.23%E -0.402%K -0.445%G +0.000% | 5.24I 19.08%NM 18.08%EV -0.311%E -0.059%K -0.073%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-27 00:20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.11%EV -5.87%E -4.48%K -18.94%G +0.000% | 10.24I 9.77%NM 9.22%EV -6.60%E -0.644%K -0.714%G +0.000% | 5.06I 19.76%NM 18.67%EV -3.74%E -0.738%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-27 00:20 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.55%EV -2.28%E -1.68%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.73%EV -8.79%E -0.879%K -0.976%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.71%EV -1.07%E -0.206%K -0.255%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-05-27 00:20 |
| DraftKings | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.63%EV -5.15%E -3.90%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.46%EV -8.79%E -0.879%K -0.976%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.91%EV -4.88%E -0.975%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-27 00:00 |
| Casumo | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.63%EV -5.15%E -3.90%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.46%EV -8.79%E -0.879%K -0.976%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.91%EV -4.88%E -0.975%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-27 00:20 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.63%EV -5.15%E -3.90%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.46%EV -8.79%E -0.879%K -0.976%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.91%EV -4.88%E -0.975%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-27 00:20 |
| Unibet | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.63%EV -5.15%E -3.90%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.46%EV -8.79%E -0.879%K -0.976%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.91%EV -4.88%E -0.975%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-27 00:19 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.63%EV -5.15%E -3.90%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.46%EV -8.79%E -0.879%K -0.976%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.91%EV -4.88%E -0.975%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-27 00:20 |
| SportsBet | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.04%EV -10.18%E -8.15%K -40.73%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.00%EV -8.79%E -0.879%K -0.976%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.96%EV -9.63%E -2.03%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-27 00:00 |
| Paddy Power | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.04%EV -10.18%E -8.15%K -40.73%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.00%EV -8.79%E -0.879%K -0.976%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.96%EV -9.63%E -2.03%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-27 00:00 |
| betfred_uk | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.45%EV -6.59%E -5.07%K -21.97%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV -13.35%E -1.40%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.91%EV -12.49%E -2.71%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-27 00:10 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.27I 78.74%NM 71.52%EV -8.75%E -6.89%K -32.39%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.56%EV -13.35%E -1.40%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.92%EV -8.68%E -1.81%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-27 00:20 |
| LeoVegas | 1.27I 78.74%NM 71.52%EV -8.75%E -6.89%K -32.39%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.56%EV -13.35%E -1.40%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.92%EV -8.68%E -1.81%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-27 00:20 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.27I 78.74%NM 71.52%EV -8.75%E -6.89%K -32.39%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.56%EV -13.35%E -1.40%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.92%EV -8.68%E -1.81%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-27 00:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.27I 78.74%NM 71.52%EV -8.75%E -6.89%K -32.39%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.56%EV -13.35%E -1.40%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.92%EV -8.68%E -1.81%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-27 00:20 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.27I 78.74%NM 71.52%EV -8.75%E -6.89%K -32.39%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.56%EV -13.35%E -1.40%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.92%EV -8.68%E -1.81%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-27 00:20 |
| Bovada | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.91%EV -6.59%E -5.07%K -21.97%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.11%EV -15.63%E -1.69%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -1.07%E -0.206%K -0.255%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-27 00:00 |
| Sky Bet | 1.25I 80.00%NM 70.89%EV -10.18%E -8.15%K -40.73%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.85%EV -17.91%E -1.99%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.26%EV -12.49%E -2.71%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-05-26 23:58 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 70.86%EV -10.18%E -8.15%K -40.73%G +0.000% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 10.30%EV -21.56%E -2.51%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.84%EV -10.58%E -2.25%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-05-27 00:20 |
| Coral | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.20%EV -6.59%E -5.07%K -21.97%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.24%EV -27.03%E -3.38%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.56%EV -12.49%E -2.71%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-26 23:59 |
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu
Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.
Plateformes d’échange (5)
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur | Match nul | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 1.34I 74.63%NM 74.50% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.68% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.83% | 0.2% | 2026-05-27 00:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.64% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.64% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.73% | 0.7% | 2026-05-27 00:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.64% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.64% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.73% | 0.7% | 2026-05-27 00:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.41% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.92% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.67% | 1.0% | 2026-05-27 00:10 |
| Smarkets | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.17% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.89% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.94% | 1.4% | 2026-05-27 00:20 |