The School of Odds
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Racing Club v Caracas FC

Kickoff: 2026-05-22 00:00 UTC

Final: Racing Club 2–2 Caracas FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Racing Club (Local)

Prediction 80.03%1.25fair odd
EV -1.56%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -6.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.34%79.72%80.13%80.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.171.181.2389.29%85.28%84.75%81.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Caracas FC (Visit)

Prediction 5.48%18.25fair odd
EV +9.61%
Edge +0.480%
Kelly +0.506%
Growth +0.049%

assuming max odds 20.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.89%5.54%5.34%8.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
11.0016.3517.0020.009.09%6.11%5.88%5.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 14.49%6.90fair odd
EV -4.23%
Edge -0.639%
Kelly -0.753%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.69%14.74%14.53%16.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.016.006.6118.18%16.65%16.67%15.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Racing Club (Local): 80.03%; Caracas FC (Visit): 5.48%; Draw: 14.49%. For Caracas FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 18.25. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 20.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.61%.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 79.47%EV -1.56%E -1.27%K -6.80%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.89%EV +9.61%E +0.480%K +0.506%G +0.049%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.64%EV -9.44%E -1.51%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.3%2026-05-21 23:40
Casumo🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.30%EV -4.76%E -4.00%K -25.07%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.97%EV +4.13%E +0.217%K +0.229%G +0.009%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -13.06%E -2.18%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-21 23:30
Unibet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.30%EV -4.76%E -4.00%K -25.07%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.97%EV +4.13%E +0.217%K +0.229%G +0.009%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -13.06%E -2.18%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-21 23:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.30%EV -4.76%E -4.00%K -25.07%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.97%EV +4.13%E +0.217%K +0.229%G +0.009%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -13.06%E -2.18%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-21 23:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.30%EV -4.76%E -4.00%K -25.07%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.97%EV +4.13%E +0.217%K +0.229%G +0.009%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -13.06%E -2.18%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-21 23:20
Coolbet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.30%EV -5.56%E -4.72%K -30.91%G +0.000%18.50I 5.41%NM 5.12%EV +1.39%E +0.075%K +0.079%G +0.001%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.58%EV -5.82%E -0.895%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-21 23:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.46%EV -7.16%E -6.18%K -44.78%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.18%EV -1.35%E -0.075%K -0.080%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -5.82%E -0.895%K -1.06%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-21 23:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.12%EV -7.97%E -6.93%K -53.10%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.05%EV -1.35%E -0.075%K -0.080%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.82%EV -16.69%E -2.90%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-21 23:20
LeoVegas🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.12%EV -7.97%E -6.93%K -53.10%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.05%EV -1.35%E -0.075%K -0.080%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.82%EV -16.69%E -2.90%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-21 23:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.12%EV -7.97%E -6.93%K -53.10%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.05%EV -1.35%E -0.075%K -0.080%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.82%EV -16.69%E -2.90%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-21 23:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.12%EV -7.97%E -6.93%K -53.10%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.05%EV -1.35%E -0.075%K -0.080%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.82%EV -16.69%E -2.90%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-21 23:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.12%EV -7.97%E -6.93%K -53.10%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.05%EV -1.35%E -0.075%K -0.080%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.82%EV -16.69%E -2.90%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-21 23:19
Pinnacle🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.41%EV -6.36%E -5.44%K -37.44%G +0.000%17.58I 5.69%NM 5.35%EV -3.65%E -0.208%K -0.220%G +0.000%6.61I 15.13%NM 14.23%EV -4.23%E -0.639%K -0.753%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-21 23:50
1xBet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.86%EV -2.36%E -1.94%K -10.74%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.59%EV -6.83%E -0.402%K -0.427%G +0.000%5.74I 17.42%NM 16.55%EV -16.83%E -2.93%K -3.55%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-21 23:50
NordicBet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.79%EV -6.36%E -5.44%K -37.44%G +0.000%16.50I 6.06%NM 5.59%EV -9.57%E -0.580%K -0.618%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.62%EV -14.51%E -2.46%K -2.96%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-21 23:50
DraftKings🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.53%EV -4.76%E -4.00%K -25.07%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.91%EV -12.31%E -0.770%K -0.821%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -5.82%E -0.895%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-21 23:39
William Hill🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.00%EV -5.56%E -4.72%K -30.91%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%EV -17.79%E -1.19%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.87%EV -15.96%E -2.75%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-21 23:49
888sport🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.89%EV -5.56%E -4.72%K -30.91%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.13%EV -17.79%E -1.19%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.98%EV -16.69%E -2.90%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-21 23:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.89%EV -5.56%E -4.72%K -30.91%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.13%EV -17.79%E -1.19%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.98%EV -16.69%E -2.90%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-21 23:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.89%EV -5.56%E -4.72%K -30.91%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.13%EV -17.79%E -1.19%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.98%EV -16.69%E -2.90%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-21 23:50
betfred_uk🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.33%EV -5.56%E -4.72%K -30.91%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.08%EV -17.79%E -1.19%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.59%EV -20.31%E -3.69%K -4.51%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-21 23:40
Bovada🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.07%EV -5.56%E -4.72%K -30.91%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.58%EV -23.27%E -1.66%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.35%EV -13.06%E -2.18%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-21 23:47
SportsBet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.57%EV -8.77%E -7.69%K -62.61%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.48%EV -23.27%E -1.66%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.95%EV -5.82%E -0.895%K -1.06%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-21 23:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 78.31%EV -7.97%E -6.93%K -53.10%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.93%EV -28.75%E -2.21%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.76%EV -11.61%E -1.90%K -2.28%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-21 23:40
Paddy Power🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.46%EV -10.37%E -9.26%K -86.38%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.85%EV -28.75%E -2.21%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.69%EV -5.82%E -0.895%K -1.06%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-21 23:50
Sky Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 78.28%EV -8.77%E -7.69%K -62.61%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.44%EV -34.24%E -2.85%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.28%EV -9.44%E -1.51%K -1.80%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-21 23:50
Coral🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.34%EV -3.96%E -3.30%K -19.82%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.22%EV -39.72%E -3.61%K -3.97%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.44%EV -20.31%E -3.69%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-21 23:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.21I 82.64%NM 82.16%19.50I 5.13%NM 5.10%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.74%0.6%2026-05-21 23:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.20I 83.33%NM 82.84%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.73%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.43%0.6%2026-05-21 23:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.20I 83.33%NM 82.84%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.73%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.43%0.6%2026-05-21 23:50
Matchbook◎1.20I 83.33%NM 82.58%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.72%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.70%0.9%2026-05-21 23:50
Smarkets◎1.19I 84.03%NM 82.50%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.91%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.59%1.9%2026-05-21 23:50