L’École des cotes

Palestino v Deportivo Riestra

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-26 22:00 UTC

Score final : Palestino 1–1 Deportivo Riestra

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

26 opérateurs (5 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Palestino (Local)

Prévision 29.79%3.36cote équitable
EV -1.41%
Avantage -0.426%
Kelly -0.611%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.31

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
28.68%29.81%29.59%33.48%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.753.013.003.3136.36%33.22%33.33%30.21%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Deportivo Riestra (Visiteur)

Prévision 38.77%2.58cote équitable
EV +1.97%
Avantage +0.750%
Kelly +1.21%
Croissance +0.024%

avec la cote maximale 2.63

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
36.83%38.79%38.93%39.89%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.252.432.452.6344.44%41.20%40.90%38.02%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 31.44%3.18cote équitable
EV -0.957%
Avantage -0.304%
Kelly -0.445%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.15

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
29.69%31.40%31.48%32.29%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.882.972.963.1534.72%33.72%33.84%31.75%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (26 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
ATG (SE)3.10I 32.26%NM 31.62%EV -7.67%E -2.47%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.27%EV +1.97%E +0.750%K +1.21%G +0.024%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.12%EV -0.957%E -0.304%K -0.445%G +0.000%2.0%2026-05-26 21:30
Unibet (NL)2.95I 33.90%NM 31.85%EV -12.13%E -4.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.84%EV -1.13%E -0.443%K -0.729%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.31%EV -5.67%E -1.89%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-26 21:30
Svenska Spel2.95I 33.90%NM 31.85%EV -12.13%E -4.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.84%EV -1.13%E -0.443%K -0.729%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.31%EV -5.67%E -1.89%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-26 21:30
Casumo2.95I 33.90%NM 31.85%EV -12.13%E -4.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.84%EV -1.13%E -0.443%K -0.729%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.31%EV -5.67%E -1.89%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-26 21:30
Unibet2.95I 33.90%NM 31.85%EV -12.13%E -4.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.84%EV -1.13%E -0.443%K -0.729%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.31%EV -5.67%E -1.89%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-26 21:30
betfred_uk2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -18.09%E -6.58%K -10.34%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -3.07%E -1.23%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -2.53%E -0.816%K -1.20%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-26 21:20
Coolbet3.25I 30.77%NM 29.31%EV -3.20%E -0.984%K -1.42%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.41%EV -3.84%E -1.55%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.29%EV -7.25%E -2.46%K -3.72%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-26 21:39
DraftKings3.10I 32.26%NM 30.47%EV -7.67%E -2.47%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.56%EV -5.01%E -2.04%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.97%EV -4.10%E -1.34%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-26 21:40
LeoVegas2.88I 34.72%NM 31.56%EV -14.22%E -4.94%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.10%EV -5.01%E -2.04%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.34%EV -8.82%E -3.04%K -4.64%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-26 21:30
Virgin Bet2.88I 34.72%NM 31.56%EV -14.22%E -4.94%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.10%EV -5.01%E -2.04%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.34%EV -8.82%E -3.04%K -4.64%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-26 21:30
LiveScore Bet2.88I 34.72%NM 31.56%EV -14.22%E -4.94%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.10%EV -5.01%E -2.04%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.34%EV -8.82%E -3.04%K -4.64%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-26 21:30
LeoVegas (SE)2.88I 34.72%NM 31.56%EV -14.22%E -4.94%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.10%EV -5.01%E -2.04%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.34%EV -8.82%E -3.04%K -4.64%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-26 21:30
PMU (FR)2.88I 34.72%NM 31.56%EV -14.22%E -4.94%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.10%EV -5.01%E -2.04%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.34%EV -8.82%E -3.04%K -4.64%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-26 21:30
Pinnacle3.21I 31.15%NM 29.41%EV -4.39%E -1.37%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.69%EV -5.39%E -2.21%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.90%EV -6.93%E -2.34%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-26 21:40
NordicBet3.05I 32.79%NM 30.26%EV -9.16%E -3.00%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.14%EV -6.17%E -2.55%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.61%EV -8.19%E -2.80%K -4.26%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-26 21:40
Unibet (UK)3.05I 32.79%NM 30.57%EV -9.16%E -3.00%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -6.95%E -2.89%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.57%EV -4.10%E -1.34%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-26 21:40
SportsBet3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -10.64%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -6.95%E -2.89%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -8.82%E -3.04%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-26 21:50
1xBet3.31I 30.21%NM 28.68%EV -1.41%E -0.426%K -0.611%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.89%EV -7.72%E -3.24%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.43%EV -5.04%E -1.67%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-26 21:49
William Hill3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -10.64%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -7.72%E -3.24%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -5.67%E -1.89%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-26 21:49
Paddy Power3.00I 33.33%NM 30.28%EV -10.64%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.17%EV -7.72%E -3.24%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.54%EV -9.45%E -3.28%K -5.02%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-26 21:50
Bovada3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -6.18%E -1.96%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -8.88%E -3.78%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -4.10%E -1.34%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-26 21:50
888sport3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -7.67%E -2.47%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -10.82%E -4.71%K -8.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -8.82%E -3.04%K -4.64%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-26 21:50
888sport (SE)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -7.67%E -2.47%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -10.82%E -4.71%K -8.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -8.82%E -3.04%K -4.64%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-26 21:50
Mr Green (SE)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -7.67%E -2.47%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -10.82%E -4.71%K -8.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -8.82%E -3.04%K -4.64%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-26 21:50
Sky Bet2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -13.62%E -4.70%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.58%EV -10.82%E -4.71%K -8.33%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.81%EV -9.45%E -3.28%K -5.02%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-26 21:50
Coral2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -13.62%E -4.70%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -12.76%E -5.67%K -10.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -5.67%E -1.89%K -2.84%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-26 21:40
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.71%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52%0.7%2026-05-26 21:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.71%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52%0.7%2026-05-26 21:50
Matchbook3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.67%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.99%0.8%2026-05-26 21:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.40I 29.41%NM 29.08%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.54%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.38%1.2%2026-05-26 21:50
Smarkets3.40I 29.41%NM 28.98%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.73%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.28%1.5%2026-05-26 21:50