The School of Odds

Nacional de Montevideo v CA Tigre BA

Kickoff: 2026-07-21 22:01 UTC

Final: Nacional de Montevideo 0–3 CA Tigre BA

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

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Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Nacional de Montevideo (Local)

Prediction 39.59%2.53fair odd
EV -3.00%
Edge -1.23%
Kelly -2.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.89%39.54%39.54%40.82%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.202.322.312.4545%43%43%41%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

CA Tigre BA (Visit)

Prediction 26.53%3.77fair odd
EV -1.85%
Edge -0.500%
Kelly -0.686%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.87%26.56%26.54%27.45%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.253.503.503.7031%29%29%27%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 33.88%2.95fair odd
EV -0.044%
Edge -0.015%
Kelly -0.023%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.84%33.90%33.93%34.66%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.602.752.762.9538%36%36%34%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.89%EV -3.00%E -1.23%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.84%EV -5.83%E -1.64%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.27%EV -5.80%E -2.09%K -3.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-21 21:50
ATG (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 40.82%EV -5.78%E -2.43%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.25%EV -1.85%E -0.500%K -0.686%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.93%EV -0.044%E -0.015%K -0.023%G +0.000%2.9%2026-07-21 21:55
Pinnacle2.38I 42.02%NM 40.00%EV -5.78%E -2.43%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.87%EV -2.38%E -0.647%K -0.889%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 34.12%EV -5.47%E -1.96%K -3.05%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-21 21:50
Unibet (UK)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.22%EV -5.78%E -2.43%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -9.81%E -2.89%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -5.13%E -1.83%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-21 21:50
NordicBet2.38I 42.02%NM 38.99%EV -5.78%E -2.43%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.90%EV -8.48%E -2.46%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.11%EV -7.84%E -2.88%K -4.56%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-21 21:55
Codere (IT)2.36I 42.37%NM 39.57%EV -6.57%E -2.78%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.07%EV -8.48%E -2.46%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.36%EV -5.13%E -1.83%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-21 21:50
LeoVegas2.35I 42.55%NM 40.37%EV -6.96%E -2.96%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -4.50%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.28%EV -3.43%E -1.20%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-21 21:55
DraftKings2.35I 42.55%NM 40.13%EV -6.96%E -2.96%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -4.50%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.68%EV -5.13%E -1.83%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-21 21:50
SportsBet2.35I 42.55%NM 39.09%EV -6.96%E -2.96%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -7.16%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.66%EV -10.21%E -3.85%K -6.19%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-21 21:50
Unibet2.32I 43.10%NM 40.68%EV -8.15%E -3.51%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -4.50%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.11%EV -3.43%E -1.20%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-21 21:55
Unibet (NL)2.32I 43.10%NM 40.68%EV -8.15%E -3.51%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -4.50%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.11%EV -3.43%E -1.20%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-21 21:55
Casumo2.32I 43.10%NM 40.68%EV -8.15%E -3.51%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -4.50%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.11%EV -3.43%E -1.20%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-21 21:55
Svenska Spel2.32I 43.10%NM 40.68%EV -8.15%E -3.51%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -4.50%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.11%EV -3.43%E -1.20%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-21 21:55
Bovada2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -8.94%E -3.89%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -7.16%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -5.13%E -1.83%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-21 21:54
betfred_uk2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -8.94%E -3.89%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -9.81%E -2.89%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -5.13%E -1.83%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-21 21:00
Paddy Power2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.94%E -3.89%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -7.16%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.63%EV -11.23%E -4.28%K -6.93%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-21 21:50
888sport2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.94%E -3.89%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -7.16%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.63%EV -11.23%E -4.28%K -6.93%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-21 21:20
Mr Green (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.94%E -3.89%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -7.16%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.63%EV -11.23%E -4.28%K -6.93%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-21 21:55
888sport (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.94%E -3.89%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -7.16%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.63%EV -11.23%E -4.28%K -6.93%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-21 21:55
William Hill2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.94%E -3.89%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -7.16%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.63%EV -11.23%E -4.28%K -6.93%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-21 21:20
Sky Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 39.05%EV -8.94%E -3.89%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.41%EV -9.81%E -2.89%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.54%EV -11.90%E -4.58%K -7.44%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-21 21:50
Coral2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -10.92%E -4.85%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -13.79%E -4.24%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.99%EV -8.52%E -3.15%K -5.01%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-21 21:50
LeoVegas (SE)2.23I 44.84%NM 40.70%EV -11.71%E -5.25%K -9.52%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.30%EV -8.48%E -2.46%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.00%EV -6.82%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-21 21:55
LiveScore Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 40.70%EV -11.71%E -5.25%K -9.52%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.30%EV -8.48%E -2.46%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.00%EV -6.82%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-21 21:55
Virgin Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 40.70%EV -11.71%E -5.25%K -9.52%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.30%EV -8.48%E -2.46%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.00%EV -6.82%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-21 21:55
Unibet (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 40.30%EV -12.90%E -5.86%K -10.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -12.46%E -3.78%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -8.52%E -3.15%K -5.01%G +0.000%12.8%2026-07-21 21:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.54I 39.37%NM 39.02%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.08%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.90%0.9%2026-07-21 21:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.54I 39.37%NM 39.02%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.08%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.90%0.9%2026-07-21 21:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.54I 39.37%NM 39.02%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.08%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.90%0.9%2026-07-21 21:55
Smarkets2.50I 40.00%NM 39.30%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.86%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.84%1.8%2026-07-21 21:55