The School of Odds

Nacional de Montevideo v CA Tigre BA

2026-07-21 22:00 — Copa Sudamericana

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (2 in analysis)

Option 1: Nacional de Montevideo (Local)

1.6859.52%Min
1.7955.73%Mean
1.8155.10%Median
1.8454.35%Max
49.77%2.009Min
52.16%1.917Max
51.38%1.946Mean
51.38%1.946Median
51.38%1.946IQM
51.36%1.947Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.84 under the IQM model: 51.38%

EV -5.46%Edge -2.97%Kelly -6.50%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: CA Tigre BA (Visit)

3.9525.32%Min
4.2123.76%Mean
4.1024.39%Median
4.6021.74%Max
20.37%4.908Min
23.15%4.320Max
21.19%4.719Mean
21.19%4.719Median
21.19%4.719IQM
21.23%4.711Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 4.60 under the IQM model: 21.19%

EV -2.51%Edge -0.546%Kelly -0.698%Growth +0.000%

Option 3: Draw

3.0033.33%Min
3.3629.73%Mean
3.4029.41%Median
3.5028.57%Max
26.55%3.766Min
28.70%3.484Max
27.43%3.646Mean
27.43%3.646Median
27.43%3.646IQM
27.41%3.648Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.50 under the IQM model: 27.43%

EV -4.00%Edge -1.14%Kelly -1.60%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

BookmakerNacional de Montevideo (Local) ▼CA Tigre BA (Visit)DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet1.84I 54.35% NM 51.24%EV -5.46% E -2.97% K -6.50% G +0.000%4.40I 22.73% NM 21.43%EV -6.75% E -1.53% K -1.99% G +0.000%3.45I 28.99% NM 27.33%EV -5.37% E -1.56% K -2.19% G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-16 22:40
Unibet1.84I 54.35% NM 50.65%EV -5.46% E -2.97% K -6.50% G +0.000%4.10I 24.39% NM 22.73%EV -13.11% E -3.20% K -4.23% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 26.63%EV -4.00% E -1.14% K -1.60% G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-29 11:28
Unibet (NL)1.83I 54.64% NM 50.78%EV -5.98% E -3.27% K -7.20% G +0.000%4.10I 24.39% NM 22.67%EV -13.11% E -3.20% K -4.23% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 26.55%EV -4.00% E -1.14% K -1.60% G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-29 11:29
Casumo1.83I 54.64% NM 50.78%EV -5.98% E -3.27% K -7.20% G +0.000%4.10I 24.39% NM 22.67%EV -13.11% E -3.20% K -4.23% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 26.55%EV -4.00% E -1.14% K -1.60% G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-29 11:29
ATG (SE)1.83I 54.64% NM 50.78%EV -5.98% E -3.27% K -7.20% G +0.000%4.10I 24.39% NM 22.67%EV -13.11% E -3.20% K -4.23% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 26.55%EV -4.00% E -1.14% K -1.60% G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-29 11:29
Svenska Spel1.83I 54.64% NM 50.78%EV -5.98% E -3.27% K -7.20% G +0.000%4.10I 24.39% NM 22.67%EV -13.11% E -3.20% K -4.23% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 26.55%EV -4.00% E -1.14% K -1.60% G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-29 11:29
LeoVegas (SE)1.83I 54.64% NM 49.96%EV -5.98% E -3.27% K -7.20% G +0.000%3.95I 25.32% NM 23.15%EV -16.29% E -4.12% K -5.52% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 26.89%EV -6.75% E -1.98% K -2.81% G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-29 11:29
LiveScore Bet1.83I 54.64% NM 49.96%EV -5.98% E -3.27% K -7.20% G +0.000%3.95I 25.32% NM 23.15%EV -16.29% E -4.12% K -5.52% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 26.89%EV -6.75% E -1.98% K -2.81% G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-29 11:29
Virgin Bet1.83I 54.64% NM 49.96%EV -5.98% E -3.27% K -7.20% G +0.000%3.95I 25.32% NM 23.15%EV -16.29% E -4.12% K -5.52% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 26.89%EV -6.75% E -1.98% K -2.81% G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-29 11:29
Bovada1.80I 55.56% NM 52.06%EV -7.52% E -4.18% K -9.40% G +0.000%4.60I 21.74% NM 20.37%EV -2.51% E -0.546% K -0.698% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 27.56%EV -6.75% E -1.98% K -2.81% G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-05 03:03
Codere (IT)1.79I 55.87% NM 51.52%EV -8.03% E -4.49% K -10.17% G +0.000%4.40I 22.73% NM 20.96%EV -6.75% E -1.53% K -1.99% G +0.000%3.35I 29.85% NM 27.53%EV -8.12% E -2.42% K -3.45% G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-02 23:10
NordicBet1.78I 56.18% NM 51.78%EV -8.55% E -4.80% K -10.96% G +0.000%4.45I 22.47% NM 20.71%EV -5.69% E -1.28% K -1.65% G +0.000%3.35I 29.85% NM 27.51%EV -8.12% E -2.42% K -3.45% G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-04 10:55
SportsBet1.78I 56.18% NM 51.68%EV -8.55% E -4.80% K -10.96% G +0.000%4.50I 22.22% NM 20.44%EV -4.63% E -1.03% K -1.32% G +0.000%3.30I 30.30% NM 27.88%EV -9.49% E -2.88% K -4.13% G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-03 22:24
LeoVegas1.75I 57.14% NM 52.16%EV -10.09% E -5.76% K -13.45% G +0.000%4.35I 22.99% NM 20.99%EV -7.81% E -1.80% K -2.33% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 26.85%EV -6.75% E -1.98% K -2.81% G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-02 10:20
Paddy Power1.75I 57.14% NM 51.65%EV -10.09% E -5.76% K -13.45% G +0.000%4.40I 22.73% NM 20.54%EV -6.75% E -1.53% K -1.99% G +0.000%3.25I 30.77% NM 27.81%EV -10.86% E -3.34% K -4.83% G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-04 02:30
Coral1.75I 57.14% NM 50.93%EV -10.09% E -5.76% K -13.45% G +0.000%4.20I 23.81% NM 21.22%EV -10.99% E -2.62% K -3.43% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 27.85%EV -12.23% E -3.82% K -5.56% G +0.000%12.2%2026-06-27 16:59
Sky Bet1.73I 57.80% NM 49.77%EV -11.11% E -6.42% K -15.22% G +0.000%4.00I 25.00% NM 21.53%EV -15.23% E -3.81% K -5.08% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 28.70%EV -17.72% E -5.91% K -8.86% G +0.000%16.1%2026-07-04 02:30
Unibet (FR)1.68I 59.52% NM 51.46%EV -13.68% E -8.14% K -20.12% G +0.000%4.10I 24.39% NM 21.09%EV -13.11% E -3.20% K -4.23% G +0.000%3.15I 31.75% NM 27.45%EV -13.60% E -4.32% K -6.33% G +0.000%15.7%2026-05-29 21:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerNacional de Montevideo (Local)CA Tigre BA (Visit)DrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.70I 58.82%4.00I 25.00%3.05I 32.79%16.6%2026-06-04 07:20