The School of Odds
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Montevideo City Torque v Deportivo Riestra

Kickoff: 2026-05-19 22:00 UTC

Final: Montevideo City Torque 4–1 Deportivo Riestra

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Montevideo City Torque (Local)

Prediction 35.73%2.80fair odd
EV -2.80%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -1.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.62%35.79%35.79%38.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.522.502.7242.55%39.70%40.00%36.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Deportivo Riestra (Visit)

Prediction 32.14%3.11fair odd
EV +9.28%
Edge +2.73%
Kelly +3.87%
Growth +0.359%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.47%31.97%32.09%33.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.703.012.923.4037.04%33.20%34.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.12%3.11fair odd
EV -5.23%
Edge -1.77%
Kelly -2.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.14%32.25%32.12%33.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.832.852.9537.04%35.29%35.09%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Montevideo City Torque (Local): 35.73%; Deportivo Riestra (Visit): 32.14%; Draw: 32.12%. For Deportivo Riestra (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.11. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.28%.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.72%EV -10.67%E -4.27%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.47%EV +9.28%E +2.73%K +3.87%G +0.359%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.81%EV -5.23%E -1.77%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-19 21:50
Unibet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.46%EV -13.17%E -5.42%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV +4.46%E +1.37%K +1.98%G +0.088%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.79%EV -8.45%E -2.96%K -4.57%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-19 21:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.46%EV -13.17%E -5.42%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV +4.46%E +1.37%K +1.98%G +0.088%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.79%EV -8.45%E -2.96%K -4.57%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-19 21:50
Casumo🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.46%EV -13.17%E -5.42%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV +4.46%E +1.37%K +1.98%G +0.088%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.79%EV -8.45%E -2.96%K -4.57%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-19 21:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.46%EV -13.17%E -5.42%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV +4.46%E +1.37%K +1.98%G +0.088%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.79%EV -8.45%E -2.96%K -4.57%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-19 21:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.45%EV -16.03%E -6.82%K -11.87%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.69%EV +1.25%E +0.396%K +0.580%G +0.007%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -11.66%E -4.24%K -6.66%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-19 21:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.45%EV -16.03%E -6.82%K -11.87%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.69%EV +1.25%E +0.396%K +0.580%G +0.007%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -11.66%E -4.24%K -6.66%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-19 21:50
LeoVegas🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.45%EV -16.03%E -6.82%K -11.87%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.69%EV +1.25%E +0.396%K +0.580%G +0.007%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -11.66%E -4.24%K -6.66%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-19 21:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.45%EV -16.03%E -6.82%K -11.87%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.69%EV +1.25%E +0.396%K +0.580%G +0.007%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -11.66%E -4.24%K -6.66%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-19 21:50
Coolbet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.94%EV -7.81%E -3.03%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.75%EV -0.359%E -0.116%K -0.171%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.31%EV -5.23%E -1.77%K -2.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-19 21:50
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -7.09%E -2.73%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.90%EV -5.18%E -1.76%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.90%EV -5.23%E -1.77%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-19 21:40
Pinnacle🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 35.17%EV -3.16%E -1.17%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.53%EV -5.82%E -1.99%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.31%EV -5.23%E -1.77%K -2.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-19 21:50
1xBet🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 34.93%EV -2.80%E -1.03%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.54%EV -6.15%E -2.10%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.54%EV -6.20%E -2.12%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-19 21:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.00%EV -7.09%E -2.73%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.27%EV -6.79%E -2.34%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.73%EV -5.23%E -1.77%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-19 21:50
William Hill🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.19%EV -7.09%E -2.73%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.55%EV -6.79%E -2.34%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.27%EV -11.66%E -4.24%K -6.66%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-19 21:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.19%EV -7.09%E -2.73%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.55%EV -6.79%E -2.34%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.27%EV -11.66%E -4.24%K -6.66%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-19 21:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.19%EV -7.09%E -2.73%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.55%EV -6.79%E -2.34%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.27%EV -11.66%E -4.24%K -6.66%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-19 21:50
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -10.67%E -4.27%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -6.79%E -2.34%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -11.66%E -4.24%K -6.66%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-19 21:50
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -10.67%E -4.27%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -6.79%E -2.34%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -11.66%E -4.24%K -6.66%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-19 21:50
NordicBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -6.38%E -2.43%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.27%EV -7.43%E -2.58%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.27%EV -7.48%E -2.60%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-19 21:50
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -10.67%E -4.27%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.73%EV -7.43%E -2.58%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.73%EV -7.48%E -2.60%K -3.98%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-19 21:50
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.26%EV -12.45%E -5.08%K -8.59%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.84%EV -7.43%E -2.58%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.90%EV -13.26%E -4.91%K -7.80%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-19 21:50
Bovada🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -5.31%E -2.00%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.88%EV -8.39%E -2.95%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -5.23%E -1.77%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-19 21:50
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.62%EV -6.38%E -2.43%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.40%EV -10.00%E -3.57%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.98%EV -11.66%E -4.24%K -6.66%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-19 21:50
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.75%EV -10.67%E -4.27%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -13.22%E -4.89%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.14%EV -7.80%E -2.72%K -4.17%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-19 21:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.76I 36.23%NM 35.94%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.00%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.06%0.8%2026-05-19 21:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.76I 36.23%NM 35.94%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.00%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.06%0.8%2026-05-19 21:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.76I 36.23%NM 35.94%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.00%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.06%0.8%2026-05-19 21:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 36.11%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.92%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.98%1.1%2026-05-19 21:50
Smarkets◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.02%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.10%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.88%2.1%2026-05-19 21:50