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Montevideo City Torque v Defensor Sporting

Kickoff: 2026-03-03 22:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Montevideo City Torque (Local)

Prediction 43.81%2.28fair odd
EV -3.62%
Edge -1.64%
Kelly -3.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.18%43.74%43.80%45.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.112.102.2048.78%47.33%47.62%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Defensor Sporting (Visit)

Prediction 25.49%3.92fair odd
EV +0.686%
Edge +0.174%
Kelly +0.232%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 3.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.07%25.47%25.53%26.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.663.653.9528.99%27.33%27.40%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.70%3.26fair odd
EV -4.83%
Edge -1.56%
Kelly -2.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.17%30.79%30.66%31.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.902.972.953.1034.48%33.64%33.90%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Montevideo City Torque (Local): 43.81%; Defensor Sporting (Visit): 25.49%; Draw: 30.70%. For Defensor Sporting (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.92. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.686%.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.27%EV -8.00%E -3.81%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.07%EV +0.686%E +0.174%K +0.232%G +0.002%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.67%EV -4.83%E -1.56%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-03 21:46
Coolbet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.69%EV -8.00%E -3.81%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -4.41%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -4.83%E -1.56%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-03 14:38
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.78%EV -7.12%E -3.36%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.08%EV -5.69%E -1.54%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.14%EV -8.52%E -2.86%K -4.30%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-03 21:40
Unibet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.87%EV -8.00%E -3.81%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -5.69%E -1.54%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -9.44%E -3.20%K -4.84%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-03 21:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.87%EV -8.00%E -3.81%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -5.69%E -1.54%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -9.44%E -3.20%K -4.84%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-03 21:45
Casumo🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.87%EV -8.00%E -3.81%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -5.69%E -1.54%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -9.44%E -3.20%K -4.84%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-03 21:46
Unibet (NL)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.87%EV -8.00%E -3.81%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -5.69%E -1.54%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -9.44%E -3.20%K -4.84%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-03 21:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.87%EV -8.00%E -3.81%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -5.69%E -1.54%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -9.44%E -3.20%K -4.84%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-03 21:46
Svenska Spel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.87%EV -8.00%E -3.81%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -5.69%E -1.54%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -9.44%E -3.20%K -4.84%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-03 21:40
1xBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.93%EV -7.12%E -3.36%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 25.24%EV -5.94%E -1.61%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.84%EV -7.29%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-03 21:55
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.81%EV -5.81%E -2.70%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -6.96%E -1.91%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -4.83%E -1.56%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-03 21:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.72%EV -8.87%E -4.27%K -8.22%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.92%EV -6.96%E -1.91%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.36%EV -10.97%E -3.78%K -5.78%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-03 21:40
LeoVegas🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.72%EV -8.87%E -4.27%K -8.22%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.92%EV -6.96%E -1.91%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.36%EV -10.97%E -3.78%K -5.78%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-03 21:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.72%EV -8.87%E -4.27%K -8.22%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.92%EV -6.96%E -1.91%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.36%EV -10.97%E -3.78%K -5.78%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-03 21:40
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -5.81%E -2.70%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -8.24%E -2.29%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -10.97%E -3.78%K -5.78%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-03 21:36
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -5.81%E -2.70%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -8.24%E -2.29%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -10.97%E -3.78%K -5.78%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-03 21:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -5.81%E -2.70%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -8.24%E -2.29%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -10.97%E -3.78%K -5.78%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-03 21:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -5.81%E -2.70%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -8.24%E -2.29%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -10.97%E -3.78%K -5.78%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-03 21:35
SportsBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -10.19%E -4.97%K -9.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -8.24%E -2.29%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -7.90%E -2.63%K -3.95%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-03 21:45
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -10.19%E -4.97%K -9.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -8.24%E -2.29%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -7.90%E -2.63%K -3.95%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-03 21:45
Bovada🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.49%EV -5.81%E -2.70%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -9.51%E -2.68%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -4.83%E -1.56%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-03 21:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.18%EV -3.62%E -1.64%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.89%EV -12.06%E -3.50%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -7.90%E -2.63%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-03 21:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.25%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.78%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.97%0.9%2026-03-03 21:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.25%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.78%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.97%0.9%2026-03-03 21:55
Matchbook◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.25%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.78%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.97%0.9%2026-03-03 21:46
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.47%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.68%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.85%1.3%2026-03-03 21:55
Smarkets◎2.20I 45.45%NM 44.12%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.57%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.31%3.0%2026-03-03 21:56