The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Montevideo City Torque v Clube Atlético Mineiro

Kickoff: 2026-10-21 22:00 UTC

Final: Montevideo City Torque 2–0 Clube Atlético Mineiro

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Montevideo City Torque (Local)

Prediction 30.25%3.31fair odd
EV +4.36%
Edge +1.26%
Kelly +1.78%
Growth +0.078%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.78%30.06%30.30%31.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.043.023.4534.72%32.87%33.06%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Clube Atlético Mineiro (Visit)

Prediction 39.27%2.55fair odd
EV -1.83%
Edge -0.730%
Kelly -1.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.57%39.41%39.37%41.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.362.382.5047.62%42.33%42.02%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.48%3.28fair odd
EV -2.46%
Edge -0.769%
Kelly -1.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.52%30.53%30.33%31.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.993.003.2035.71%33.41%33.33%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Montevideo City Torque (Local): 30.25%; Clube Atlético Mineiro (Visit): 39.27%; Draw: 30.48%. For Montevideo City Torque (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.31. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.36%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.78%EV +4.36%E +1.26%K +1.78%G +0.078%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.31%EV -8.89%E -3.83%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.91%EV -5.51%E -1.78%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-21 19:10
1xBet🎯3.41I 29.33%NM 27.82%EV +3.15%E +0.924%K +1.31%G +0.041%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.55%EV -8.11%E -3.47%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -8.56%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-21 21:55
ATG (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 30.19%EV -3.20%E -1.00%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.64%EV -1.83%E -0.730%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.16%EV -5.51%E -1.78%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-21 21:05
picklebet_au🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.71%EV -3.20%E -1.00%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.62%EV -5.75%E -2.40%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.67%EV -5.51%E -1.78%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-21 21:45
Pinnacle🎯3.16I 31.65%NM 30.46%EV -4.41%E -1.40%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.45%EV -4.18%E -1.71%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.08%EV -2.46%E -0.769%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-21 21:45
Codere (IT)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.75%EV -4.72%E -1.50%K -2.19%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.53%EV -6.93%E -2.92%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.72%EV -7.03%E -2.31%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-21 21:50
DraftKings🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -6.23%E -2.01%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -5.75%E -2.40%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -5.51%E -1.78%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-21 21:44
Unibet (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -6.23%E -2.01%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV -6.54%E -2.75%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -5.51%E -1.78%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-21 21:45
SportsBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -6.23%E -2.01%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -9.68%E -4.21%K -7.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -8.56%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-21 21:45
Bovada🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.72%EV -7.74%E -2.54%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -5.75%E -2.40%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -5.51%E -1.78%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-21 21:45
Unibet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -7.74%E -2.54%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.36%EV -4.57%E -1.88%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.07%EV -8.56%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-21 21:05
Casumo🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -7.74%E -2.54%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.36%EV -4.57%E -1.88%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.07%EV -8.56%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-21 21:05
Unibet (NL)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -7.74%E -2.54%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.36%EV -4.57%E -1.88%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.07%EV -8.56%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-21 21:05
Svenska Spel🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -7.74%E -2.54%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.36%EV -4.57%E -1.88%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.07%EV -8.56%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-21 21:05
LeoVegas🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -7.74%E -2.54%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -6.54%E -2.75%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -7.03%E -2.31%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-21 21:45
888sport🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -9.25%E -3.08%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -6.54%E -2.75%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -11.60%E -4.00%K -6.11%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-21 21:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -9.25%E -3.08%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -6.54%E -2.75%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -11.60%E -4.00%K -6.11%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-21 21:55
888sport (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -9.25%E -3.08%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -6.54%E -2.75%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -11.60%E -4.00%K -6.11%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-21 21:55
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -9.25%E -3.08%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -9.68%E -4.21%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -11.60%E -4.00%K -6.11%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-21 21:45
Coral🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -9.25%E -3.08%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -13.61%E -6.18%K -11.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -8.56%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-21 16:12
Unibet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.02%EV -9.25%E -3.08%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.46%EV -17.53%E -8.35%K -15.94%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.52%EV -10.08%E -3.42%K -5.17%G +0.000%14.9%2026-10-21 21:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.44%EV -10.76%E -3.65%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -5.75%E -2.40%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -5.51%E -1.78%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-21 21:40
NordicBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -12.28%E -4.23%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -3.79%E -1.55%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -8.56%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-21 21:55
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -12.28%E -4.23%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -5.75%E -2.40%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -8.56%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-21 21:54
Sky Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -12.28%E -4.23%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.67%EV -9.68%E -4.21%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -11.60%E -4.00%K -6.11%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-21 21:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -12.28%E -4.23%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.26%EV -8.89%E -3.83%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.14%EV -13.13%E -4.61%K -7.10%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-21 21:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -12.28%E -4.23%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.26%EV -8.89%E -3.83%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.14%EV -13.13%E -4.61%K -7.10%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-21 21:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -12.28%E -4.23%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.26%EV -8.89%E -3.83%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.14%EV -13.13%E -4.61%K -7.10%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-21 21:05
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.54%EV -12.88%E -4.47%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.17%EV -6.54%E -2.75%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.28%EV -8.56%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-21 21:45
PMU (FR)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.48%EV -12.88%E -4.47%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.17%EV -9.68%E -4.21%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.35%EV -14.65%E -5.23%K -8.14%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-21 21:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.35I 29.85%NM 29.67%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.75%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.58%0.6%2026-10-21 21:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.35I 29.85%NM 29.67%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.75%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.58%0.6%2026-10-21 21:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.30I 30.30%NM 29.98%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.58%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.44%1.1%2026-10-21 21:55
Smarkets◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.30%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.39%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.30%1.5%2026-10-21 21:55