The School of Odds
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Montevideo City Torque v CA Tigre BA

Kickoff: 2026-08-20 00:30 UTC

Final: Montevideo City Torque 2–1 CA Tigre BA

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Montevideo City Torque (Local)

Prediction 25.01%4.00fair odd
EV -1.19%
Edge -0.301%
Kelly -0.404%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.19%24.99%25.03%25.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.713.733.9528.17%26.95%26.81%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

CA Tigre BA (Visit)

Prediction 43.70%2.29fair odd
EV -3.87%
Edge -1.76%
Kelly -3.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.61%43.74%43.65%45.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.962.092.102.2051.02%47.94%47.62%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.29%3.20fair odd
EV +0.127%
Edge +0.040%
Kelly +0.058%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.12%31.27%31.32%32.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.952.923.2036.36%33.92%34.19%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Montevideo City Torque (Local): 25.01%; CA Tigre BA (Visit): 43.70%; Draw: 31.29%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.196. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.200, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.127%.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 24.40%EV -1.19%E -0.301%K -0.404%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.47%EV -7.37%E -3.47%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.12%EV +0.127%E +0.040%K +0.058%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-19 23:45
Pinnacle🎯3.71I 26.95%NM 25.68%EV -7.19%E -1.94%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.50%EV -4.31%E -1.97%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 30.83%EV -3.32%E -1.07%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-20 00:20
Coolbet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.42%EV -6.19%E -1.65%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.33%EV -3.87%E -1.76%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.25%EV -4.57%E -1.50%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-19 17:15
LeoVegas🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.17%EV -6.19%E -1.65%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.89%EV -6.05%E -2.82%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.94%EV -4.57%E -1.50%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-20 00:15
Unibet (NL)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -4.94%E -1.30%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.10%EV -9.99%E -4.85%K -9.42%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -4.57%E -1.50%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-19 23:45
Casumo🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -4.94%E -1.30%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.10%EV -9.99%E -4.85%K -9.42%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -4.57%E -1.50%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-19 23:45
Unibet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -4.94%E -1.30%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.10%EV -9.99%E -4.85%K -9.42%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -4.57%E -1.50%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-19 23:45
Svenska Spel🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -4.94%E -1.30%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.10%EV -9.99%E -4.85%K -9.42%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -4.57%E -1.50%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-19 23:45
DraftKings🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -4.94%E -1.30%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.81%EV -6.05%E -2.82%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -6.13%E -2.04%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-20 00:00
Unibet (UK)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -4.94%E -1.30%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.39%EV -8.24%E -3.92%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.07%EV -6.13%E -2.04%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-19 19:35
betfred_uk🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -9.95%E -2.76%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -8.24%E -3.92%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -6.13%E -2.04%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-20 00:20
Bovada🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -4.94%E -1.30%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.58%EV -6.05%E -2.82%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -7.70%E -2.61%K -3.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-20 00:15
Codere (IT)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.27%EV -3.69%E -0.959%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.07%EV -7.37%E -3.47%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.67%EV -7.70%E -2.61%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-19 19:35
888sport🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -9.95%E -2.76%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -8.24%E -3.92%K -7.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -9.26%E -3.19%K -4.87%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-20 00:20
William Hill🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -9.95%E -2.76%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -8.24%E -3.92%K -7.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -9.26%E -3.19%K -4.87%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-20 00:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -9.95%E -2.76%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -8.24%E -3.92%K -7.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -9.26%E -3.19%K -4.87%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-20 00:20
888sport (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -9.95%E -2.76%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -8.24%E -3.92%K -7.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -9.26%E -3.19%K -4.87%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-20 00:20
LiveScore Bet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 24.84%EV -11.20%E -3.15%K -4.39%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 44.76%EV -13.92%E -7.07%K -14.35%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.40%EV -9.26%E -3.19%K -4.87%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-19 23:45
Virgin Bet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 24.84%EV -11.20%E -3.15%K -4.39%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 44.76%EV -13.92%E -7.07%K -14.35%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.40%EV -9.26%E -3.19%K -4.87%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-19 23:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 24.78%EV -11.20%E -3.15%K -4.39%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 44.88%EV -14.36%E -7.32%K -14.96%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.34%EV -9.26%E -3.19%K -4.87%G +0.000%13.7%2026-08-19 23:45
SportsBet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -6.19%E -1.65%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.31%EV -7.37%E -3.47%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -10.82%E -3.80%K -5.85%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-20 00:10
NordicBet🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.19%EV -1.19%E -0.301%K -0.404%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.68%EV -10.42%E -5.09%K -9.93%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.14%EV -10.82%E -3.80%K -5.85%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-20 00:25
Paddy Power🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -7.44%E -2.01%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -8.24%E -3.92%K -7.49%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.36%EV -12.39%E -4.42%K -6.88%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-20 00:10
Coral🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -9.95%E -2.76%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.45%EV -10.42%E -5.09%K -9.93%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.81%EV -12.39%E -4.42%K -6.88%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-20 00:10
Unibet (FR)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.48%EV -9.95%E -2.76%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.06%EV -12.61%E -6.30%K -12.61%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.47%EV -12.39%E -4.42%K -6.88%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-20 00:05
Sky Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.85%EV -9.95%E -2.76%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -8.24%E -3.92%K -7.49%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.54%EV -13.95%E -5.07%K -7.97%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-20 00:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.10I 24.39%NM 24.27%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.64%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.10%0.5%2026-08-20 00:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.10I 24.39%NM 24.27%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.64%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.10%0.5%2026-08-20 00:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.10I 24.39%NM 24.27%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.64%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.10%0.5%2026-08-20 00:05
Smarkets◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.72%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.37%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.90%1.1%2026-08-20 00:00