Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Montevideo City Torque v CA Tigre BA

2026-08-20 00:30 UTC — Copa Sudamericana

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Montevideo City Torque (Local)

Prediction 34.90%2.87fair odd
EV -2.98%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -1.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.01%34.98%34.58%37.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.642.652.7842.55%37.87%37.74%35.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

CA Tigre BA (Visit)

Prediction 35.46%2.82fair odd
EV -2.48%
Edge -0.903%
Kelly -1.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.07%35.43%35.68%36.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.582.552.7540.00%38.78%39.22%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.64%3.37fair odd
EV -2.19%
Edge -0.663%
Kelly -0.951%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.41%29.59%29.75%30.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.093.053.3033.33%32.39%32.79%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Montevideo City Torque (Local): 34.90%; CA Tigre BA (Visit): 35.46%; Draw: 29.64%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.37. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.30, with an expected value of -2.19%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.79%EV -2.98%E -1.07%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 36.00%EV -7.45%E -2.85%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 30.21%EV -7.82%E -2.51%K -3.71%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-13 05:20
NordicBet🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.01%EV -2.98%E -1.07%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.41%EV -10.64%E -4.22%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.58%EV -11.08%E -3.69%K -5.54%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-13 07:15
DraftKings🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.56%EV -4.03%E -1.46%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.19%EV -9.57%E -3.75%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.26%EV -9.60%E -3.15%K -4.68%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-13 05:24
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -4.03%E -1.46%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -11.35%E -4.54%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -11.08%E -3.69%K -5.54%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-13 07:15
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -4.03%E -1.46%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -11.35%E -4.54%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -11.08%E -3.69%K -5.54%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-13 07:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -4.03%E -1.46%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -11.35%E -4.54%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -11.08%E -3.69%K -5.54%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-13 07:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -4.03%E -1.46%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -11.35%E -4.54%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -11.08%E -3.69%K -5.54%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-13 07:15
Coolbet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -7.52%E -2.84%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -6.03%E -2.27%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -5.15%E -1.61%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-13 07:24
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -9.26%E -3.56%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -7.80%E -3.00%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -8.12%E -2.62%K -3.86%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-13 05:29
SportsBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.99%EV -9.26%E -3.56%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.67%EV -9.57%E -3.75%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.34%EV -8.12%E -2.62%K -3.86%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-13 07:25
Paddy Power🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -9.26%E -3.56%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.78%EV -11.35%E -4.54%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -11.08%E -3.69%K -5.54%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-13 07:25
LeoVegas🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -12.75%E -5.10%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -2.48%E -0.903%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -2.19%E -0.663%K -0.951%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-13 02:04
Codere (IT)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -12.75%E -5.10%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -4.26%E -1.58%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -3.67%E -1.13%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-13 02:04
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -12.75%E -5.10%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -4.26%E -1.58%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -5.15%E -1.61%K -2.34%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-13 02:04
Unibet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 36.97%EV -17.99%E -7.65%K -13.32%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.07%EV -9.57%E -3.75%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.96%EV -11.08%E -3.69%K -5.54%G +0.000%15.1%2026-08-13 02:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.74I 36.50%NM 32.87%2.56I 39.06%NM 35.19%2.82I 35.46%NM 31.94%11.0%2026-08-13 05:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.74I 36.50%NM 32.87%2.56I 39.06%NM 35.19%2.82I 35.46%NM 31.94%11.0%2026-08-13 05:25
Smarkets2.40I 41.67%NM 36.80%2.58I 38.76%NM 34.24%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.96%13.2%2026-08-13 02:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.74I 36.50%NM 31.13%2.56I 39.06%NM 33.32%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.54%17.2%2026-08-13 05:25

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