The School of Odds
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Independiente Santa Fe v Caracas FC

Kickoff: 2026-07-22 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Independiente Santa Fe (Local)

Prediction 60.63%1.65fair odd
EV -5.42%
Edge -3.47%
Kelly -9.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.29%60.63%60.63%66.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.441.401.5671.43%69.63%71.43%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Caracas FC (Visit)

Prediction 14.96%6.68fair odd
EV +34.65%
Edge +3.85%
Kelly +4.33%
Growth +1.50%

assuming max odds 9.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.33%14.96%14.96%16.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.607.497.509.0017.86%13.36%13.33%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.41%4.10fair odd
EV +6.92%
Edge +1.58%
Kelly +2.05%
Growth +0.142%

assuming max odds 4.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.34%24.41%24.41%24.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.903.924.3828.57%25.63%25.48%22.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Independiente Santa Fe (Local): 60.63%; Caracas FC (Visit): 14.96%; Draw: 24.41%. For Caracas FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.68. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +34.65%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.42%EV -15.12%E -10.80%K -37.80%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.33%EV +34.65%E +3.85%K +4.33%G +1.50%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -2.36%E -0.589%K -0.786%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-12 22:54
Unibet (NL)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.42%EV -15.12%E -10.80%K -37.80%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.33%EV +34.65%E +3.85%K +4.33%G +1.50%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -2.36%E -0.589%K -0.786%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-12 22:54
Casumo🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.42%EV -15.12%E -10.80%K -37.80%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.33%EV +34.65%E +3.85%K +4.33%G +1.50%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -2.36%E -0.589%K -0.786%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-12 22:54
ATG (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.42%EV -15.12%E -10.80%K -37.80%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.33%EV +34.65%E +3.85%K +4.33%G +1.50%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -2.36%E -0.589%K -0.786%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-12 22:54
Svenska Spel🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.42%EV -15.12%E -10.80%K -37.80%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.33%EV +34.65%E +3.85%K +4.33%G +1.50%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -2.36%E -0.589%K -0.786%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-12 22:54
LiveScore Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.99%EV -15.12%E -10.80%K -37.80%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.37%EV +19.69%E +2.46%K +2.81%G +0.554%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.63%EV -6.02%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-12 22:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.99%EV -15.12%E -10.80%K -37.80%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.37%EV +19.69%E +2.46%K +2.81%G +0.554%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.63%EV -6.02%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-12 22:54
Virgin Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.99%EV -15.12%E -10.80%K -37.80%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.37%EV +19.69%E +2.46%K +2.81%G +0.554%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.63%EV -6.02%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-12 22:54
SportsBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.52%EV -15.12%E -10.80%K -37.80%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.90%EV +4.73%E +0.676%K +0.788%G +0.037%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -2.36%E -0.589%K -0.786%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-30 01:50
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.76%EV -15.12%E -10.80%K -37.80%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.75%EV +4.73%E +0.676%K +0.788%G +0.037%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -7.24%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-30 01:50
1xBet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.74%EV -5.42%E -3.47%K -9.68%G +0.000%6.56I 15.24%NM 14.92%EV -1.85%E -0.283%K -0.333%G +0.000%4.38I 22.83%NM 22.34%EV +6.92%E +1.58%K +2.05%G +0.142%2.2%2026-05-30 19:00
NordicBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.67%EV -7.85%E -5.16%K -15.09%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.41%EV -4.25%E -0.664%K -0.786%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.92%EV -9.68%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-06 08:00
Sky Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 61.58%EV -15.12%E -10.80%K -37.80%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 13.79%EV -6.49%E -1.04%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.63%EV -14.56%E -4.16%K -5.83%G +0.000%16.0%2026-06-04 06:20
Codere (IT)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.63%EV -7.24%E -4.73%K -13.66%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.96%EV -7.24%E -1.17%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -7.24%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-04 01:19
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.10%EV -12.70%E -8.82%K -28.85%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.55%EV -13.97%E -2.43%K -2.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.35%EV -2.36%E -0.589%K -0.786%G +0.000%11.8%2026-06-04 10:59
LeoVegas🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.29%EV -7.24%E -4.73%K -13.66%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.20%EV -16.22%E -2.90%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.52%EV -9.68%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-30 00:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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