L’École des cotes

Grêmio v Montevideo City Torque

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-26 22:00 UTC

Score final : Grêmio 2–2 Montevideo City Torque

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

26 opérateurs (5 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Grêmio (Local)

Prévision 60.42%1.65cote équitable
EV -1.51%
Avantage -0.925%
Kelly -2.39%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.63

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
58.59%60.31%60.62%61.32%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.481.541.541.6367.57%64.94%64.94%61.35%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Montevideo City Torque (Visiteur)

Prévision 14.81%6.75cote équitable
EV -0.060%
Avantage -0.009%
Kelly -0.010%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 6.75

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
14.15%14.87%14.65%17.09%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
5.256.176.256.7519.05%16.20%16.00%14.81%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 24.77%4.04cote équitable
EV -4.64%
Avantage -1.20%
Kelly -1.63%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.85

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
24.25%24.82%24.73%26.01%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.503.693.703.8528.57%27.13%27.03%25.97%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (26 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
ATG (SE)1.63I 61.35%NM 60.07%EV -1.51%E -0.925%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.50%EV -0.060%E -0.009%K -0.010%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.43%EV -4.64%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.1%2026-05-26 21:40
1xBet1.58I 63.29%NM 60.05%EV -4.53%E -2.87%K -7.81%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.18%EV -7.46%E -1.19%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 24.77%EV -5.13%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-26 21:49
Coolbet1.57I 63.69%NM 60.63%EV -5.13%E -3.27%K -9.01%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.64%EV -3.76%E -0.579%K -0.684%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.72%EV -4.64%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-26 21:30
Unibet1.57I 63.69%NM 59.89%EV -5.13%E -3.27%K -9.01%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.69%EV -5.24%E -0.819%K -0.971%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -8.35%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-26 21:39
William Hill1.57I 63.69%NM 58.59%EV -5.13%E -3.27%K -9.01%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.86%EV -14.13%E -2.44%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -10.83%E -3.01%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-26 21:39
DraftKings1.56I 64.10%NM 60.78%EV -5.74%E -3.68%K -10.25%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -3.76%E -0.579%K -0.684%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.63%EV -4.64%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-26 21:49
Pinnacle1.56I 64.10%NM 60.60%EV -5.74%E -3.68%K -10.25%G +0.000%6.54I 15.29%NM 14.46%EV -3.17%E -0.485%K -0.572%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 24.94%EV -6.12%E -1.62%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-26 21:40
Bovada1.56I 64.10%NM 60.05%EV -5.74%E -3.68%K -10.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -11.16%E -1.86%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -4.64%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-26 21:50
Casumo1.56I 64.10%NM 60.05%EV -5.74%E -3.68%K -10.25%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.64%EV -5.24%E -0.819%K -0.971%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -8.35%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-26 21:40
Unibet (NL)1.56I 64.10%NM 60.05%EV -5.74%E -3.68%K -10.25%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.64%EV -5.24%E -0.819%K -0.971%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -8.35%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-26 21:39
Svenska Spel1.56I 64.10%NM 60.05%EV -5.74%E -3.68%K -10.25%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.64%EV -5.24%E -0.819%K -0.971%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -8.35%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-26 21:39
Unibet (UK)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.02%EV -6.34%E -4.09%K -11.53%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.50%EV -11.16%E -1.86%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -5.88%E -1.55%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-26 21:50
NordicBet1.55I 64.52%NM 59.57%EV -6.34%E -4.09%K -11.53%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.43%EV -5.24%E -0.819%K -0.971%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.01%EV -12.07%E -3.40%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-26 21:40
888sport1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -7.55%E -4.93%K -14.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -11.16%E -1.86%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -10.83%E -3.01%K -4.17%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-26 21:50
888sport (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -7.55%E -4.93%K -14.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -11.16%E -1.86%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -10.83%E -3.01%K -4.17%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-26 21:50
Mr Green (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -7.55%E -4.93%K -14.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -11.16%E -1.86%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -10.83%E -3.01%K -4.17%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-26 21:50
Coral1.53I 65.36%NM 58.65%EV -7.55%E -4.93%K -14.25%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.09%EV -22.27%E -4.24%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.25%EV -8.35%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-26 21:30
LiveScore Bet1.52I 65.79%NM 60.04%EV -8.15%E -5.36%K -15.68%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.60%EV -7.46%E -1.19%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -10.83%E -3.01%K -4.17%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-26 21:39
Virgin Bet1.52I 65.79%NM 60.04%EV -8.15%E -5.36%K -15.68%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.60%EV -7.46%E -1.19%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -10.83%E -3.01%K -4.17%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-26 21:40
LeoVegas1.51I 66.23%NM 60.20%EV -8.76%E -5.80%K -17.17%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.55%EV -7.46%E -1.19%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -10.83%E -3.01%K -4.17%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-26 21:40
LeoVegas (SE)1.51I 66.23%NM 60.20%EV -8.76%E -5.80%K -17.17%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.55%EV -7.46%E -1.19%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -10.83%E -3.01%K -4.17%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-26 21:40
betfred_uk1.50I 66.67%NM 61.32%EV -9.36%E -6.24%K -18.73%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV -3.76%E -0.579%K -0.684%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -7.11%E -1.90%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-26 21:38
SportsBet1.50I 66.67%NM 60.41%EV -9.36%E -6.24%K -18.73%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.10%EV -11.16%E -1.86%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -8.35%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-26 21:30
Paddy Power1.50I 66.67%NM 60.00%EV -9.36%E -6.24%K -18.73%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -11.16%E -1.86%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -10.83%E -3.01%K -4.17%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-26 21:39
Sky Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 59.19%EV -9.36%E -6.24%K -18.73%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.44%EV -14.87%E -2.59%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.37%EV -13.31%E -3.80%K -5.32%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-26 21:29
Unibet (FR)1.48I 67.57%NM 59.85%EV -10.57%E -7.14%K -22.02%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.54%EV -15.61%E -2.74%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.61%EV -10.83%E -3.01%K -4.17%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-26 21:50
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.62I 61.73%NM 61.35%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.80%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.85%0.6%2026-05-26 21:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 61.16%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.76%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.08%0.9%2026-05-26 21:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.62I 61.73%NM 61.16%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.76%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.08%0.9%2026-05-26 21:50
Matchbook1.62I 61.73%NM 61.16%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.76%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.08%0.9%2026-05-26 21:50
Smarkets1.62I 61.73%NM 60.96%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.72%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.32%1.3%2026-05-26 21:50