L’École des cotes

Deportivo Riestra v Grêmio

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-05 22:00 UTC

Score final : Deportivo Riestra 0–3 Grêmio

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

25 opérateurs (5 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Deportivo Riestra (Local)

Prévision 31.08%3.22cote équitable
EV +0.070%
Avantage +0.022%
Kelly +0.032%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.22

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
29.27%30.95%31.23%32.03%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.852.962.903.2235.09%33.81%34.48%31.06%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Grêmio (Visiteur)

Prévision 34.31%2.91cote équitable
EV -2.22%
Avantage -0.778%
Kelly -1.20%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.85

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
33.21%34.39%34.07%36.03%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.602.702.702.8538.46%37.01%37.04%35.09%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 34.61%2.89cote équitable
EV +0.375%
Avantage +0.129%
Kelly +0.198%
Croissance +0.001%

avec la cote maximale 2.90

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
33.28%34.67%34.70%35.87%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.502.692.702.9040.00%37.16%37.04%34.48%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (25 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nul ▼MargeMise à jour
ATG (SE)3.05I 32.79%NM 32.03%EV -5.21%E -1.71%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.28%EV -2.22%E -0.778%K -1.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.69%EV +0.375%E +0.129%K +0.198%G +0.001%2.4%2026-05-05 21:15
Coolbet3.10I 32.26%NM 30.72%EV -3.66%E -1.18%K -1.74%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.27%EV -7.36%E -2.73%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.01%EV -3.09%E -1.10%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-05 19:59
Unibet (NL)2.95I 33.90%NM 31.99%EV -8.32%E -2.82%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.31%EV -5.65%E -2.05%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.70%EV -3.09%E -1.10%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-05 21:15
Casumo2.95I 33.90%NM 31.99%EV -8.32%E -2.82%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.31%EV -5.65%E -2.05%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.70%EV -3.09%E -1.10%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-05 21:15
Unibet2.95I 33.90%NM 31.99%EV -8.32%E -2.82%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.31%EV -5.65%E -2.05%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.70%EV -3.09%E -1.10%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-05 21:15
Svenska Spel2.95I 33.90%NM 31.99%EV -8.32%E -2.82%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.31%EV -5.65%E -2.05%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.70%EV -3.09%E -1.10%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-05 21:15
DraftKings3.00I 33.33%NM 31.62%EV -6.77%E -2.26%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.88%EV -3.93%E -1.40%K -2.18%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.50%EV -4.82%E -1.75%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-05 21:30
betfred_uk2.88I 34.72%NM 31.78%EV -10.50%E -3.64%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -10.11%E -3.86%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -4.82%E -1.75%K -2.75%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-05 21:30
Pinnacle3.22I 31.06%NM 29.62%EV +0.070%E +0.022%K +0.032%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.45%EV -7.71%E -2.86%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 34.93%EV -5.51%E -2.02%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-05 21:30
Unibet (UK)3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -6.77%E -2.26%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.07%EV -5.65%E -2.05%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -6.55%E -2.42%K -3.85%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-05 21:30
Bovada3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -0.551%E -0.172%K -0.251%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -10.79%E -4.15%K -6.75%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -6.55%E -2.42%K -3.85%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-05 21:19
Virgin Bet2.85I 35.09%NM 31.94%EV -11.43%E -4.01%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.35%EV -9.08%E -3.43%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.71%EV -6.55%E -2.42%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-05 21:15
LeoVegas (SE)2.85I 35.09%NM 31.94%EV -11.43%E -4.01%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.35%EV -9.08%E -3.43%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.71%EV -6.55%E -2.42%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-05 21:15
LiveScore Bet2.85I 35.09%NM 31.94%EV -11.43%E -4.01%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.35%EV -9.08%E -3.43%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.71%EV -6.55%E -2.42%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-05 21:15
LeoVegas2.85I 35.09%NM 31.94%EV -11.43%E -4.01%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.35%EV -9.08%E -3.43%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.71%EV -6.55%E -2.42%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-05 21:15
NordicBet3.05I 32.79%NM 30.28%EV -5.21%E -1.71%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.25%EV -10.11%E -3.86%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.46%EV -7.24%E -2.70%K -4.31%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-05 20:00
1xBet3.10I 32.26%NM 30.06%EV -3.66%E -1.18%K -1.74%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 34.90%EV -8.39%E -3.14%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.03%EV -7.93%E -2.98%K -4.78%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-05 21:30
William Hill2.90I 34.48%NM 31.55%EV -9.87%E -3.41%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.27%EV -5.65%E -2.05%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.19%EV -10.01%E -3.85%K -6.26%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-05 21:30
888sport2.90I 34.48%NM 31.55%EV -9.87%E -3.41%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.27%EV -5.65%E -2.05%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.19%EV -10.01%E -3.85%K -6.26%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-05 21:30
Mr Green (SE)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.55%EV -9.87%E -3.41%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.27%EV -5.65%E -2.05%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.19%EV -10.01%E -3.85%K -6.26%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-05 21:30
888sport (SE)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.55%EV -9.87%E -3.41%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.27%EV -5.65%E -2.05%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.19%EV -10.01%E -3.85%K -6.26%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-05 21:30
SportsBet2.90I 34.48%NM 31.35%EV -9.87%E -3.41%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.68%EV -7.36%E -2.73%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.97%EV -10.01%E -3.85%K -6.26%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-05 21:30
Coral2.87I 34.84%NM 31.26%EV -10.81%E -3.77%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.24%EV -10.11%E -3.86%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.50%EV -10.01%E -3.85%K -6.26%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-05 21:30
Paddy Power2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -9.87%E -3.41%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.21%EV -7.36%E -2.73%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -13.47%E -5.39%K -8.98%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-05 21:30
Sky Bet2.88I 34.72%NM 30.80%EV -10.50%E -3.64%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.72%EV -9.76%E -3.71%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.48%EV -13.47%E -5.39%K -8.98%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-05 21:30
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook3.25I 30.77%NM 30.47%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.15%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.37%1.0%2026-05-05 21:29
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.20I 31.25%NM 30.88%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.84%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.29%1.2%2026-05-05 21:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.20I 31.25%NM 30.88%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.84%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.29%1.2%2026-05-05 21:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.20I 31.25%NM 30.88%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.84%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.29%1.2%2026-05-05 21:30
Smarkets3.20I 31.25%NM 30.58%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.22%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.20%2.2%2026-05-05 21:30