The School of Odds
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Deportivo Pereira v Montevideo City Torque

Kickoff: 2026-04-29 22:00 UTC

Final: Deportivo Pereira 2–1 Montevideo City Torque

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Deportivo Pereira (Local)

Prediction 40.84%2.45fair odd
EV -2.79%
Edge -1.17%
Kelly -2.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.71%40.76%40.84%41.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.262.282.3846.51%44.32%43.86%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Montevideo City Torque (Visit)

Prediction 27.77%3.60fair odd
EV -2.80%
Edge -0.800%
Kelly -1.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.81%27.81%27.83%28.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.333.303.5032.26%30.04%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.39%3.19fair odd
EV -2.70%
Edge -0.872%
Kelly -1.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.56%31.43%31.33%32.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.912.903.1037.04%34.39%34.48%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Deportivo Pereira (Local): 40.84%; Montevideo City Torque (Visit): 27.77%; Draw: 31.39%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.19. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.10, with an expected value of -2.70%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.98%EV -2.79%E -1.17%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.83%EV -8.36%E -2.53%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.19%EV -4.27%E -1.40%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-21 16:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.37%EV -4.84%E -2.08%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV -2.80%E -0.800%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.09%EV -2.70%E -0.872%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-23 16:15
NordicBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.87%EV -5.24%E -2.26%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -9.74%E -3.00%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.67%EV -8.35%E -2.86%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 20:59
Pinnacle🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 40.66%EV -5.65%E -2.45%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 27.71%EV -5.86%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.63%EV -6.78%E -2.28%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 21:05
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.71%EV -6.06%E -2.64%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -5.58%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -7.41%E -2.51%K -3.80%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 16:11
1xBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.47%EV -6.06%E -2.64%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.54%EV -6.13%E -1.81%K -2.58%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 31.99%EV -8.67%E -2.98%K -4.54%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-23 16:04
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -6.06%E -2.64%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -8.36%E -2.53%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -12.12%E -4.33%K -6.73%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-22 08:54
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -6.06%E -2.64%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -8.36%E -2.53%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -12.12%E -4.33%K -6.73%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-22 08:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -6.06%E -2.64%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -8.36%E -2.53%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -12.12%E -4.33%K -6.73%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-22 09:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -6.06%E -2.64%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -8.36%E -2.53%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -12.12%E -4.33%K -6.73%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-22 09:00
Unibet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.14%EV -6.88%E -3.02%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -5.58%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -5.84%E -1.95%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 16:19
Casumo🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.14%EV -6.88%E -3.02%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -5.58%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -5.84%E -1.95%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 16:19
Unibet (NL)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.14%EV -6.88%E -3.02%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -5.58%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -5.84%E -1.95%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 16:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.14%EV -6.88%E -3.02%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -5.58%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -5.84%E -1.95%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 16:15
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.79%EV -10.15%E -4.61%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -5.58%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.17%EV -7.41%E -2.51%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-23 10:44
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -10.15%E -4.61%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -8.36%E -2.53%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -5.84%E -1.95%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-21 17:40
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.43%EV -10.15%E -4.61%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -5.58%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.76%EV -9.92%E -3.46%K -5.31%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-23 16:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -10.15%E -4.61%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -8.36%E -2.53%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -8.98%E -3.10%K -4.73%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-23 16:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -10.15%E -4.61%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -8.36%E -2.53%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -8.98%E -3.10%K -4.73%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-23 16:19
LeoVegas🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -10.15%E -4.61%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -8.36%E -2.53%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -8.98%E -3.10%K -4.73%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-23 16:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -10.15%E -4.61%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -8.36%E -2.53%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -8.98%E -3.10%K -4.73%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-23 16:19
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -10.15%E -4.61%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -8.36%E -2.53%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -12.12%E -4.33%K -6.73%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-23 16:03
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -10.15%E -4.61%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -8.36%E -2.53%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -12.12%E -4.33%K -6.73%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-23 16:04
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.75%EV -10.15%E -4.61%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -11.13%E -3.48%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -9.92%E -3.46%K -5.31%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-21 16:09
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.16%EV -12.19%E -5.67%K -10.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.86%EV -13.91%E -4.49%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.98%EV -15.26%E -5.65%K -8.97%G +0.000%15.8%2026-04-23 16:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.08I 48.08%NM 41.33%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.19%2.82I 35.46%NM 30.48%16.3%2026-04-23 14:44
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.18I 84.75%NM 31.68%1.18I 84.75%NM 31.68%1.02I 98.04%NM 36.65%167.5%2026-04-23 14:44
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.18I 84.75%NM 31.68%1.18I 84.75%NM 31.68%1.02I 98.04%NM 36.65%167.5%2026-04-23 21:34
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.18I 84.75%NM 31.68%1.18I 84.75%NM 31.68%1.02I 98.04%NM 36.65%167.5%2026-04-23 14:44