The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Deportivo Pereira v Grêmio

Kickoff: 2026-05-05 22:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Deportivo Pereira (Local)

Prediction 33.71%2.97fair odd
EV +1.14%
Edge +0.379%
Kelly +0.569%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.99%33.87%33.73%34.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.762.743.0038.46%36.18%36.50%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Grêmio (Visit)

Prediction 32.58%3.07fair odd
EV -4.87%
Edge -1.67%
Kelly -2.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.44%32.43%32.57%34.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.782.752.9237.74%35.91%36.36%34.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 33.71%2.97fair odd
EV -2.24%
Edge -0.773%
Kelly -1.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.78%33.71%33.70%34.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.762.802.9038.17%36.20%35.71%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Deportivo Pereira (Local): 33.71%; Grêmio (Visit): 32.58%; Draw: 33.71%. For Deportivo Pereira (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.97. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.14%.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 32.39%EV +1.14%E +0.379%K +0.569%G +0.006%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.10%EV -7.15%E -2.51%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.51%EV -2.24%E -0.773%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-04 08:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.99%EV -0.548%E -0.186%K -0.281%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.31%EV -10.41%E -3.79%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.70%EV -5.61%E -2.00%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-04 08:10
Casumo🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.99%EV -0.548%E -0.186%K -0.281%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.31%EV -10.41%E -3.79%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.70%EV -5.61%E -2.00%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-04 08:10
Unibet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.99%EV -0.548%E -0.186%K -0.281%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.31%EV -10.41%E -3.79%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.70%EV -5.61%E -2.00%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-04 08:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.99%EV -0.548%E -0.186%K -0.281%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.31%EV -10.41%E -3.79%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.70%EV -5.61%E -2.00%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-04 08:15
Coolbet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.40%EV -3.92%E -1.38%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.60%EV -4.87%E -1.67%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.00%EV -5.61%E -2.00%K -3.12%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-01 14:43
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.32%EV -5.60%E -2.00%K -3.11%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.15%EV -13.67%E -5.16%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.52%EV -8.98%E -3.33%K -5.29%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-04 08:10
LeoVegas🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.32%EV -5.60%E -2.00%K -3.11%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.15%EV -13.67%E -5.16%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.52%EV -8.98%E -3.33%K -5.29%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-04 08:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.32%EV -5.60%E -2.00%K -3.11%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.15%EV -13.67%E -5.16%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.52%EV -8.98%E -3.33%K -5.29%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-04 08:10
Virgin Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.32%EV -5.60%E -2.00%K -3.11%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.15%EV -13.67%E -5.16%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.52%EV -8.98%E -3.33%K -5.29%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-04 08:09
Pinnacle🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.77%EV -6.28%E -2.26%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.71%EV -6.50%E -2.27%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.53%EV -5.61%E -2.00%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-30 23:59
DraftKings🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.29%E -2.65%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.54%EV -7.15%E -2.51%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.30%E -2.65%K -4.17%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-30 23:59
1xBet🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 33.82%EV -7.63%E -2.78%K -4.38%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -8.78%E -3.14%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -5.61%E -2.00%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-04 09:29
NordicBet🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 33.98%EV -8.30%E -3.05%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.77%EV -8.13%E -2.88%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.25%EV -6.29%E -2.26%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-30 23:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.66%EV -8.98%E -3.32%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -7.15%E -2.51%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.50%EV -2.92%E -1.01%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 22:05
Bovada🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV -8.98%E -3.32%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.30%EV -8.78%E -3.14%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.16%EV -2.24%E -0.773%K -1.18%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 19:05
888sport🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -8.98%E -3.32%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -5.52%E -1.90%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -11.68%E -4.46%K -7.21%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-30 23:59
William Hill🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -8.98%E -3.32%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -5.52%E -1.90%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -11.68%E -4.46%K -7.21%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-30 23:59
888sport (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -8.98%E -3.32%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -5.52%E -1.90%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -11.68%E -4.46%K -7.21%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-30 23:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -8.98%E -3.32%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -5.52%E -1.90%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -11.68%E -4.46%K -7.21%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-30 23:59
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -11.67%E -4.46%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -10.41%E -3.79%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.78%EV -2.92%E -1.01%K -1.55%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-01 00:00
SportsBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.62%EV -11.67%E -4.46%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.98%EV -10.41%E -3.79%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.40%EV -5.61%E -2.00%K -3.12%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-01 00:00
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.62%EV -11.67%E -4.46%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.98%EV -10.41%E -3.79%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.40%EV -5.61%E -2.00%K -3.12%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-30 23:59
Sky Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.38%EV -12.35%E -4.75%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.11%EV -12.04%E -4.46%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.51%EV -7.30%E -2.65%K -4.17%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-02 22:05
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.38%EV -12.35%E -4.75%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.11%EV -12.04%E -4.46%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.51%EV -7.30%E -2.65%K -4.17%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-30 23:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.84I 35.21%NM 34.26%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.87%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.87%2.8%2026-05-04 11:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.84I 35.21%NM 33.55%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.19%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.27%5.0%2026-05-04 07:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.84I 35.21%NM 33.55%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.19%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.27%5.0%2026-05-04 07:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.84I 35.21%NM 33.55%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.19%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.27%5.0%2026-05-04 07:10
Smarkets◎2.82I 35.46%NM 33.22%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.08%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%6.7%2026-05-04 09:29