The School of Odds
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Cobresal v Audax Italiano

Kickoff: 2026-03-04 00:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cobresal (Local)

Prediction 40.01%2.50fair odd
EV -3.18%
Edge -1.31%
Kelly -2.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.31%39.95%40.03%41.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.232.302.302.4244.84%43.49%43.48%41.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Audax Italiano (Visit)

Prediction 30.86%3.24fair odd
EV -2.49%
Edge -0.788%
Kelly -1.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.50%30.83%30.82%32.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.033.103.1636.36%33.02%32.26%31.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.13%3.43fair odd
EV -3.57%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -1.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.68%29.22%29.15%30.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.173.133.3133.33%31.56%32.00%30.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cobresal (Local): 40.01%; Audax Italiano (Visit): 30.86%; Draw: 29.13%. For Audax Italiano (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.24. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.16, with an expected value of -2.49%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 40.05%EV -3.18%E -1.31%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.67%EV -2.49%E -0.788%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 29.28%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-04 00:20
Coolbet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.80%EV -3.98%E -1.66%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.81%EV -4.34%E -1.40%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.39%EV -5.31%E -1.63%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-03 22:39
Pinnacle🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.39%EV -5.58%E -2.36%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.46%EV -3.42%E -1.09%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.15%EV -4.73%E -1.45%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-04 00:20
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.07%EV -5.98%E -2.54%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -7.43%E -2.48%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -3.86%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-04 00:05
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.86%EV -5.98%E -2.54%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.75%EV -8.97%E -3.04%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -3.86%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-04 00:19
NordicBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.76%EV -7.18%E -3.10%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 30.95%EV -8.04%E -2.70%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.28%EV -8.23%E -2.61%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-04 00:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -7.98%E -3.47%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -8.97%E -3.04%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -6.77%E -2.12%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-04 00:05
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -7.98%E -3.47%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -13.60%E -4.86%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -3.86%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-03 20:00
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -7.98%E -3.47%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -7.43%E -2.48%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -12.60%E -4.20%K -6.30%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-04 00:05
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -7.98%E -3.47%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -7.43%E -2.48%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -12.60%E -4.20%K -6.30%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-04 00:05
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -7.98%E -3.47%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.88%EV -15.14%E -5.51%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -5.31%E -1.63%K -2.36%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-03 21:30
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -9.98%E -4.44%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -4.34%E -1.40%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -9.68%E -3.12%K -4.61%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-03 23:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -9.98%E -4.44%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -4.34%E -1.40%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -9.68%E -3.12%K -4.61%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-03 23:40
Casumo🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -9.98%E -4.44%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -4.34%E -1.40%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -9.68%E -3.12%K -4.61%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-03 23:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -9.98%E -4.44%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -4.34%E -1.40%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -9.68%E -3.12%K -4.61%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-03 23:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.01%EV -10.78%E -4.83%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.50%EV -4.34%E -1.40%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.50%EV -9.68%E -3.12%K -4.61%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-03 17:50
LeoVegas🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.01%EV -10.78%E -4.83%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.50%EV -4.34%E -1.40%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.50%EV -9.68%E -3.12%K -4.61%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-03 17:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.01%EV -10.78%E -4.83%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.50%EV -4.34%E -1.40%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.50%EV -9.68%E -3.12%K -4.61%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-03 17:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.46I 40.65%NM 40.12%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.85%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.03%1.3%2026-03-04 00:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.46I 40.65%NM 39.93%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.18%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.89%1.8%2026-03-04 00:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.46I 40.65%NM 39.93%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.18%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.89%1.8%2026-03-04 00:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.46I 40.65%NM 39.93%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.18%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.89%1.8%2026-03-04 00:10
Smarkets◎2.44I 40.98%NM 39.95%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.95%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.10%2.6%2026-03-04 00:20