The School of Odds
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Clube Atlético Mineiro v Montevideo City Torque

Kickoff: 2026-10-14 22:00 UTC

Final: Clube Atlético Mineiro 3–0 Montevideo City Torque

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Clube Atlético Mineiro (Local)

Prediction 65.02%1.54fair odd
EV -5.07%
Edge -3.47%
Kelly -11.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.49%65.14%64.92%69.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.401.421.4675.76%71.51%70.67%68.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Montevideo City Torque (Visit)

Prediction 12.17%8.22fair odd
EV +21.72%
Edge +2.17%
Kelly +2.41%
Growth +0.524%

assuming max odds 10.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.69%11.99%12.29%13.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.507.987.8810.0015.38%12.53%12.70%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.81%4.38fair odd
EV +4.92%
Edge +1.07%
Kelly +1.37%
Growth +0.067%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.07%22.86%22.79%23.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.124.104.6026.32%24.30%24.39%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Clube Atlético Mineiro (Local): 65.02%; Montevideo City Torque (Visit): 12.17%; Draw: 22.81%. For Montevideo City Torque (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.22. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +21.72%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 69.24%EV -8.97%E -6.41%K -22.43%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.69%EV +21.72%E +2.17%K +2.41%G +0.524%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.07%EV +4.92%E +1.07%K +1.37%G +0.067%3.2%2026-10-14 21:40
Coolbet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.68%EV -6.37%E -4.43%K -14.48%G +0.000%9.70I 10.31%NM 9.90%EV +18.07%E +1.86%K +2.08%G +0.375%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.42%EV -6.49%E -1.58%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-14 21:44
1xBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.51%EV -7.02%E -4.91%K -16.33%G +0.000%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.12%EV +14.42%E +1.53%K +1.72%G +0.247%4.07I 24.57%NM 23.37%EV -7.17%E -1.76%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-14 21:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.48%EV -11.57%E -8.51%K -32.15%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.35%EV +9.55%E +1.06%K +1.19%G +0.114%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.17%EV +0.357%E +0.081%K +0.105%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-14 21:40
Unibet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.48%EV -11.57%E -8.51%K -32.15%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.35%EV +9.55%E +1.06%K +1.19%G +0.114%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.17%EV +0.357%E +0.081%K +0.105%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-14 21:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.48%EV -11.57%E -8.51%K -32.15%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.35%EV +9.55%E +1.06%K +1.19%G +0.114%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.17%EV +0.357%E +0.081%K +0.105%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-14 21:44
Casumo🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.48%EV -11.57%E -8.51%K -32.15%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.35%EV +9.55%E +1.06%K +1.19%G +0.114%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.17%EV +0.357%E +0.081%K +0.105%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-14 21:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 67.69%EV -14.17%E -10.74%K -44.30%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV +3.46%E +0.407%K +0.462%G +0.016%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.79%EV -6.49%E -1.58%K -2.09%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-14 21:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 67.69%EV -14.17%E -10.74%K -44.30%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV +3.46%E +0.407%K +0.462%G +0.016%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.79%EV -6.49%E -1.58%K -2.09%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-14 21:44
LiveScore Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 67.69%EV -14.17%E -10.74%K -44.30%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV +3.46%E +0.407%K +0.462%G +0.016%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.79%EV -6.49%E -1.58%K -2.09%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-14 21:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 67.69%EV -14.17%E -10.74%K -44.30%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV +3.46%E +0.407%K +0.462%G +0.016%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.79%EV -6.49%E -1.58%K -2.09%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-14 21:45
SportsBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 65.96%EV -9.62%E -6.92%K -24.67%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.11%EV +0.420%E +0.051%K +0.058%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -8.77%E -2.19%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-14 21:40
Pinnacle🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.53%EV -5.07%E -3.47%K -11.03%G +0.000%8.22I 12.17%NM 11.64%EV +0.055%E +0.007%K +0.008%G +0.000%4.19I 23.87%NM 22.83%EV -4.43%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-14 21:45
DraftKings🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.67%EV -6.37%E -4.43%K -14.48%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.82%EV -2.62%E -0.328%K -0.375%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -4.20%E -1.00%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-14 21:45
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.23%EV -11.57%E -8.51%K -32.15%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.26%EV -2.62%E -0.328%K -0.375%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.52%EV -8.77%E -2.19%K -2.92%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-14 21:04
Bovada🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.57%EV -7.02%E -4.91%K -16.33%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.10%EV -5.67%E -0.731%K -0.839%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -4.20%E -1.00%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-14 21:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.00%EV -5.72%E -3.95%K -12.72%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.57%EV -8.71%E -1.16%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%EV -4.20%E -1.00%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-14 21:50
picklebet_au🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.15%EV -6.37%E -4.43%K -14.48%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.51%EV -8.71%E -1.16%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -4.20%E -1.00%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-14 21:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.59%EV -7.02%E -4.91%K -16.33%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.32%EV -8.71%E -1.16%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.09%EV -8.77%E -2.19%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-14 21:45
betfred_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.08%EV -8.97%E -6.41%K -22.43%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.15%EV -8.71%E -1.16%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -8.77%E -2.19%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-14 21:45
Codere (IT)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.04%EV -6.37%E -4.43%K -14.48%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.66%EV -9.93%E -1.34%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.30%EV -4.20%E -1.00%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-14 21:45
NordicBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.56%EV -7.02%E -4.91%K -16.33%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.65%EV -11.14%E -1.53%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.79%EV -7.63%E -1.88%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-14 21:40
LeoVegas🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.23%EV -6.37%E -4.43%K -14.48%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.21%EV -14.79%E -2.11%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.56%EV -6.49%E -1.58%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-14 21:45
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.49%EV -6.37%E -4.43%K -14.48%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -14.79%E -2.11%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.44%EV -11.05%E -2.83%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-14 21:45
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.49%EV -6.37%E -4.43%K -14.48%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -14.79%E -2.11%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.44%EV -11.05%E -2.83%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-14 21:44
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.49%EV -6.37%E -4.43%K -14.48%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -14.79%E -2.11%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.44%EV -11.05%E -2.83%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-14 21:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.49%EV -6.37%E -4.43%K -14.48%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -14.79%E -2.11%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.44%EV -11.05%E -2.83%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-14 21:45
Sky Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.43%EV -11.57%E -8.51%K -32.15%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.52%EV -14.79%E -2.11%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.06%EV -13.33%E -3.51%K -4.76%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-14 21:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 65.38%EV -13.52%E -10.17%K -40.98%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 12.60%EV -16.01%E -2.32%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.01%EV -9.91%E -2.51%K -3.36%G +0.000%15.0%2026-10-14 21:49
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.88%EV -8.97%E -6.41%K -22.43%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.76%EV -20.88%E -3.21%K -3.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -8.77%E -2.19%K -2.92%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-14 21:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.48I 67.57%NM 66.79%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.74%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.47%1.2%2026-10-14 21:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.48I 67.57%NM 66.79%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.74%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.47%1.2%2026-10-14 21:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.48I 67.57%NM 66.79%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.74%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.47%1.2%2026-10-14 21:45
Smarkets◎1.47I 68.03%NM 66.94%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.70%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.36%1.6%2026-10-14 21:45