The School of Odds
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Clube Atlético Mineiro v Club Cienciano

Kickoff: 2026-05-21 22:00 UTC

Final: Clube Atlético Mineiro 2–0 Club Cienciano

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Clube Atlético Mineiro (Local)

Prediction 75.49%1.32fair odd
EV -4.88%
Edge -3.87%
Kelly -18.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.33%75.30%75.46%79.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.211.221.2686.96%82.64%81.97%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Club Cienciano (Visit)

Prediction 8.05%12.41fair odd
EV +28.88%
Edge +1.80%
Kelly +1.93%
Growth +0.556%

assuming max odds 16.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.10%7.99%7.98%9.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0012.4212.0016.0010.00%8.05%8.33%6.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 16.45%6.08fair odd
EV +15.15%
Edge +2.16%
Kelly +2.53%
Growth +0.383%

assuming max odds 7.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.88%16.71%16.56%18.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.955.915.757.0020.20%16.91%17.39%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Clube Atlético Mineiro (Local): 75.49%; Club Cienciano (Visit): 8.05%; Draw: 16.45%. For Club Cienciano (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 12.41. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 16.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +28.88%.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 79.97%EV -7.90%E -6.47%K -35.89%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 6.10%EV +28.88%E +1.80%K +1.93%G +0.556%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.94%EV +15.15%E +2.16%K +2.53%G +0.383%2.5%2026-05-21 21:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.42%EV -10.92%E -9.25%K -60.65%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.69%EV +12.77%E +0.912%K +0.982%G +0.125%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.88%EV +11.04%E +1.64%K +1.92%G +0.212%6.7%2026-05-21 21:50
Casumo🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.42%EV -10.92%E -9.25%K -60.65%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.69%EV +12.77%E +0.912%K +0.982%G +0.125%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.88%EV +11.04%E +1.64%K +1.92%G +0.212%6.7%2026-05-21 21:50
Unibet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.42%EV -10.92%E -9.25%K -60.65%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.69%EV +12.77%E +0.912%K +0.982%G +0.125%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.88%EV +11.04%E +1.64%K +1.92%G +0.212%6.7%2026-05-21 21:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.42%EV -10.92%E -9.25%K -60.65%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.69%EV +12.77%E +0.912%K +0.982%G +0.125%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.88%EV +11.04%E +1.64%K +1.92%G +0.212%6.7%2026-05-21 21:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.42%EV -13.18%E -11.46%K -87.87%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.52%EV +12.77%E +0.912%K +0.982%G +0.125%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.05%EV +6.93%E +1.07%K +1.26%G +0.087%9.5%2026-05-21 21:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.42%EV -13.18%E -11.46%K -87.87%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.52%EV +12.77%E +0.912%K +0.982%G +0.125%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.05%EV +6.93%E +1.07%K +1.26%G +0.087%9.5%2026-05-21 21:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.42%EV -13.18%E -11.46%K -87.87%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.52%EV +12.77%E +0.912%K +0.982%G +0.125%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.05%EV +6.93%E +1.07%K +1.26%G +0.087%9.5%2026-05-21 21:50
LeoVegas🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.42%EV -13.18%E -11.46%K -87.87%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.52%EV +12.77%E +0.912%K +0.982%G +0.125%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.05%EV +6.93%E +1.07%K +1.26%G +0.087%9.5%2026-05-21 21:50
Coolbet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.13%EV -5.63%E -4.51%K -22.53%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.32%EV +4.71%E +0.363%K +0.393%G +0.019%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -5.41%E -0.941%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-21 21:49
NordicBet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.09%EV -6.39%E -5.15%K -26.61%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.35%EV +0.686%E +0.055%K +0.060%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.56%EV -18.57%E -3.75%K -4.70%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-21 21:29
DraftKings🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -6.39%E -5.15%K -26.61%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV -3.34%E -0.278%K -0.304%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.78%EV -1.30%E -0.216%K -0.259%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-21 21:40
betfred_uk🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.56%EV -7.90%E -6.47%K -35.89%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.68%EV -3.34%E -0.278%K -0.304%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -9.52%E -1.73%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-21 21:28
SportsBet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.86%EV -9.41%E -7.84%K -47.03%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%EV -3.34%E -0.278%K -0.304%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -9.52%E -1.73%K -2.12%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-21 21:50
Paddy Power🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.17%EV -10.92%E -9.25%K -60.65%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.49%EV -3.34%E -0.278%K -0.304%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -9.52%E -1.73%K -2.12%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-21 21:50
Pinnacle🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.28%EV -5.63%E -4.51%K -22.53%G +0.000%11.79I 8.48%NM 7.98%EV -5.03%E -0.427%K -0.466%G +0.000%5.62I 17.79%NM 16.74%EV -7.55%E -1.34%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-21 21:50
1xBet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.62%EV -4.88%E -3.87%K -18.76%G +0.000%11.10I 9.01%NM 8.58%EV -10.59%E -0.954%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.03I 16.58%NM 15.80%EV -0.803%E -0.133%K -0.160%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-21 21:50
Bovada🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.79%EV -6.39%E -5.15%K -26.61%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -11.40%E -1.04%K -1.14%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -1.30%E -0.216%K -0.259%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-21 21:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.43%EV -7.14%E -5.81%K -31.05%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -11.40%E -1.04%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.14%EV -5.41%E -0.941%K -1.14%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-21 21:40
888sport🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.33%EV -5.63%E -4.51%K -22.53%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -11.40%E -1.04%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -17.75%E -3.55%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-21 21:40
William Hill🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.33%EV -5.63%E -4.51%K -22.53%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -11.40%E -1.04%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -17.75%E -3.55%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-21 21:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.33%EV -5.63%E -4.51%K -22.53%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -11.40%E -1.04%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -17.75%E -3.55%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-21 21:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.33%EV -5.63%E -4.51%K -22.53%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -11.40%E -1.04%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -17.75%E -3.55%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-21 21:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.16%EV -9.41%E -7.84%K -47.03%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.02%EV -19.45%E -1.95%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.82%EV -6.23%E -1.09%K -1.33%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-21 21:39
Sky Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.73%EV -9.41%E -7.84%K -47.03%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.97%EV -19.45%E -1.95%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -9.52%E -1.73%K -2.12%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-21 21:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.27I 78.74%NM 78.26%16.00I 6.25%NM 6.21%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.53%0.6%2026-05-21 21:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 78.10%15.50I 6.45%NM 6.40%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.50%0.8%2026-05-21 21:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 78.10%15.50I 6.45%NM 6.40%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.50%0.8%2026-05-21 21:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 78.10%15.50I 6.45%NM 6.40%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.50%0.8%2026-05-21 21:50
Smarkets◎1.26I 79.37%NM 77.68%14.99I 6.67%NM 6.53%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.79%2.2%2026-05-21 21:50