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Clube Atlético Mineiro v Boca Juniors

2026-11-21 22:30 UTC — Copa Sudamericana

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Clube Atlético Mineiro (Local)

Prediction 27.32%3.66fair odd
EV -3.84%
Edge -1.09%
Kelly -1.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.00%27.32%27.32%30.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.133.053.5235.71%31.95%32.79%28.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Boca Juniors (Visit)

Prediction 41.21%2.43fair odd
EV +2.20%
Edge +0.888%
Kelly +1.49%
Growth +0.033%

assuming max odds 2.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.36%41.21%41.21%42.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.962.292.292.4851.02%43.73%43.67%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.47%3.18fair odd
EV +2.60%
Edge +0.796%
Kelly +1.15%
Growth +0.030%

assuming max odds 3.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.08%31.47%31.47%31.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.983.003.2637.04%33.58%33.33%30.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Clube Atlético Mineiro (Local): 27.32%; Boca Juniors (Visit): 41.21%; Draw: 31.47%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.18. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.26, producing a positive expected value of +2.60%.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 30.39%EV -12.58%E -3.93%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.22%EV +2.20%E +0.888%K +1.49%G +0.033%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.39%EV +0.707%E +0.221%K +0.321%G +0.002%2.8%2026-11-10 11:40
Unibet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -16.68%E -5.47%K -8.14%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -1.92%E -0.807%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -4.01%E -1.32%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-10 11:40
Unibet (NL)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -16.68%E -5.47%K -8.14%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -1.92%E -0.807%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -4.01%E -1.32%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-10 11:40
Svenska Spel🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -16.68%E -5.47%K -8.14%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -1.92%E -0.807%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -4.01%E -1.32%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-10 11:40
SportsBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.52%EV -18.04%E -6.01%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -3.16%E -1.34%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.52%EV -5.59%E -1.86%K -2.79%G +0.000%9.2%2026-11-04 14:25
1xBet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 28.02%EV -4.38%E -1.25%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.90%EV -3.57%E -1.52%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 30.08%EV +2.60%E +0.796%K +1.15%G +0.030%2.0%2026-11-08 22:25
Coolbet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.64%EV -5.75%E -1.67%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.10%EV -4.39%E -1.89%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.26%EV -4.01%E -1.32%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.9%2026-11-10 11:55
Pinnacle🎯3.52I 28.41%NM 27.00%EV -3.84%E -1.09%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.32%EV -5.22%E -2.27%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.68%EV -5.59%E -1.86%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.2%2026-11-08 22:40
Bovada🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -7.12%E -2.09%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -5.22%E -2.27%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -5.59%E -1.86%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-11 13:24
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -18.04%E -6.01%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -5.22%E -2.27%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -5.59%E -1.86%K -2.79%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-04 14:23
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.56%EV -20.78%E -7.16%K -10.93%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 38.87%EV -6.04%E -2.65%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.56%EV -8.73%E -3.01%K -4.60%G +0.000%12.8%2026-11-10 11:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.56%EV -20.78%E -7.16%K -10.93%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 38.87%EV -6.04%E -2.65%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.56%EV -8.73%E -3.01%K -4.60%G +0.000%12.8%2026-11-10 11:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.56%EV -20.78%E -7.16%K -10.93%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 38.87%EV -6.04%E -2.65%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.56%EV -8.73%E -3.01%K -4.60%G +0.000%12.8%2026-11-10 11:40
NordicBet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.50%EV -8.48%E -2.53%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.95%EV -7.28%E -3.23%K -5.82%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.55%EV -8.10%E -2.78%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-11 13:20
LeoVegas🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -11.21%E -3.45%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -7.28%E -3.23%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -5.59%E -1.86%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-10 03:40
PMU (FR)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.49%EV -21.32%E -7.40%K -11.34%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.02%EV -7.28%E -3.23%K -5.82%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.49%EV -9.36%E -3.25%K -4.98%G +0.000%13.9%2026-11-10 11:40
Sky Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 30.82%EV -23.51%E -8.40%K -13.06%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.36%EV -7.28%E -3.23%K -5.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.82%EV -11.88%E -4.24%K -6.60%G +0.000%15.9%2026-11-04 14:34
picklebet_au🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.85%E -2.98%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -9.34%E -4.24%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -5.59%E -1.86%K -2.79%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-09 06:40
Coral🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -15.31%E -4.94%K -7.29%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -9.34%E -4.24%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -8.73%E -3.01%K -4.60%G +0.000%12.2%2026-11-09 06:40
Unibet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 27.46%EV -18.04%E -6.01%K -9.02%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 42.03%EV -19.23%E -9.81%K -20.03%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 30.51%EV -15.03%E -5.57%K -8.84%G +0.000%21.4%2026-11-09 06:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 28.26%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.28%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.45%8.9%2026-11-11 15:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 28.26%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.28%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.45%8.9%2026-11-11 15:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.20I 31.25%NM 28.58%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.11%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.32%9.4%2026-11-11 15:00
Smarkets◎3.15I 31.75%NM 28.74%2.26I 44.25%NM 40.05%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.21%10.5%2026-11-11 15:05
Arbitrage (4 combinations) +0.60%Pinnacle 3.52 (28.6%) / ATG (SE) 2.48 (40.6%) / 1xBet 3.26 (30.9%)Show all 4 combinations
Clube Atlético Mineiro (Local)Boca Juniors (Visit)DrawMargin
Pinnacle🎯 3.52 (28.6%)ATG (SE)🎯 2.48 (40.6%)1xBet🎯 3.26 (30.9%)+0.597%
1xBet🎯 3.50 (28.7%)ATG (SE)🎯 2.48 (40.5%)1xBet🎯 3.26 (30.8%)+0.433%
Pinnacle🎯 3.52 (28.4%)ATG (SE)🎯 2.48 (40.3%)ATG (SE)🎯 3.20 (31.3%)+0.018%
Coolbet🎯 3.45 (29.0%)ATG (SE)🎯 2.48 (40.3%)1xBet🎯 3.26 (30.7%)+0.017%