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Club Independiente Petrolero v Racing Club

Kickoff: 2026-04-07 22:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Club Independiente Petrolero (Local)

Prediction 17.09%5.85fair odd
EV -0.031%
Edge -0.005%
Kelly -0.006%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.39%17.13%17.12%19.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.355.455.8521.74%18.68%18.35%17.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Racing Club (Visit)

Prediction 58.80%1.70fair odd
EV -1.22%
Edge -0.726%
Kelly -1.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.70%58.69%58.80%60.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.491.581.571.6867.11%63.22%63.69%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.11%4.15fair odd
EV -1.13%
Edge -0.277%
Kelly -0.366%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.03%24.18%24.09%25.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.843.834.1027.78%26.03%26.14%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Club Independiente Petrolero (Local): 17.09%; Racing Club (Visit): 58.80%; Draw: 24.11%. For Club Independiente Petrolero (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.852. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.850, with an expected value of -0.031%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯5.85I 17.09%NM 16.59%EV -0.031%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.55%EV -4.16%E -2.55%K -6.60%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 23.85%EV -1.86%E -0.457%K -0.605%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-07 21:50
ATG (SE)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.99%EV -1.74%E -0.303%K -0.366%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.19%EV -2.98%E -1.81%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.82%EV -1.13%E -0.277%K -0.366%G +0.000%2.4%2026-04-07 21:55
DraftKings🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -1.74%E -0.303%K -0.366%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.04%EV -7.69%E -4.90%K -13.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -3.55%E -0.887%K -1.18%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-07 21:54
Unibet🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.90%EV -4.30%E -0.768%K -0.935%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.14%EV -5.92%E -3.70%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.96%EV -4.75%E -1.20%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-07 21:54
Casumo🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.90%EV -4.30%E -0.768%K -0.935%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.14%EV -5.92%E -3.70%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.96%EV -4.75%E -1.20%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-07 21:54
Unibet (NL)🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.90%EV -4.30%E -0.768%K -0.935%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.14%EV -5.92%E -3.70%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.96%EV -4.75%E -1.20%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-07 21:55
Svenska Spel🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.90%EV -4.30%E -0.768%K -0.935%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.14%EV -5.92%E -3.70%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.96%EV -4.75%E -1.20%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-07 21:55
Pinnacle🎯5.53I 18.08%NM 17.12%EV -5.50%E -0.994%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.80%EV -5.34%E -3.31%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.09%EV -5.23%E -1.33%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-07 21:45
888sport🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -6.01%E -1.09%K -1.34%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.49%EV -7.69%E -4.90%K -13.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -10.78%E -2.91%K -3.99%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-07 21:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -6.01%E -1.09%K -1.34%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.49%EV -7.69%E -4.90%K -13.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -10.78%E -2.91%K -3.99%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-07 21:55
888sport (SE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -6.01%E -1.09%K -1.34%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.49%EV -7.69%E -4.90%K -13.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -10.78%E -2.91%K -3.99%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-07 21:55
William Hill🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -6.01%E -1.09%K -1.34%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.49%EV -7.69%E -4.90%K -13.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -10.78%E -2.91%K -3.99%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-07 21:55
Virgin Bet🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -7.72%E -1.43%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.18%EV -8.86%E -5.72%K -16.12%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.83%EV -7.16%E -1.86%K -2.51%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-07 21:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.87%EV -7.72%E -1.43%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.16%EV -9.45%E -6.14%K -17.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -8.37%E -2.20%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-07 21:55
LeoVegas🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.87%EV -7.72%E -1.43%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.16%EV -9.45%E -6.14%K -17.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -8.37%E -2.20%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-07 21:54
LiveScore Bet🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.87%EV -7.72%E -1.43%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.16%EV -9.45%E -6.14%K -17.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -8.37%E -2.20%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-07 21:55
Coolbet🎯5.32I 18.80%NM 17.90%EV -9.09%E -1.71%K -2.10%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -1.22%E -0.726%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.40%EV -9.57%E -2.55%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-07 21:25
Unibet (UK)🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.55%EV -10.28%E -1.96%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.43%EV -8.86%E -5.72%K -16.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -3.55%E -0.887%K -1.18%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-07 21:55
Bovada🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -11.14%E -2.14%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.73%EV -4.75%E -2.93%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.29%EV -7.16%E -1.86%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-07 21:53
Unibet (FR)🎯4.95I 20.20%NM 17.55%EV -15.41%E -3.11%K -3.90%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 58.31%EV -12.39%E -8.32%K -25.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.13%EV -13.19%E -3.66%K -5.07%G +0.000%15.1%2026-04-07 21:49
Coral🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.55%EV -17.97%E -3.74%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.72%EV -7.69%E -4.90%K -13.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.73%EV -13.19%E -3.66%K -5.07%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-07 21:40
SportsBet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.28%EV -18.83%E -3.96%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.24%EV -5.92%E -3.70%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -5.96%E -1.53%K -2.05%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-07 21:05
Paddy Power🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 18.96%EV -18.83%E -3.96%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.35%EV -7.69%E -4.90%K -13.49%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.69%EV -8.37%E -2.20%K -2.99%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-07 21:00
Sky Bet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.39%EV -21.39%E -4.65%K -5.94%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.82%EV -7.69%E -4.90%K -13.49%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.79%EV -9.57%E -2.55%K -3.48%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-07 21:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎6.40I 15.63%NM 15.30%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.82%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.88%2.1%2026-04-07 21:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎6.40I 15.63%NM 15.30%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.82%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.88%2.1%2026-04-07 21:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎6.20I 16.13%NM 15.72%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.52%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.76%2.6%2026-04-07 21:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎6.20I 16.13%NM 15.72%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.52%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.76%2.6%2026-04-07 21:50
Smarkets◎6.20I 16.13%NM 15.45%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.61%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.94%4.4%2026-04-07 21:55