The School of Odds
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C.D. Cuenca v Santos

Kickoff: 2026-04-08 22:02 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

C.D. Cuenca (Local)

Prediction 42.56%2.35fair odd
EV -0.409%
Edge -0.175%
Kelly -0.306%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.33%42.56%42.60%42.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.232.232.3448.78%44.91%44.94%42.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Santos (Visit)

Prediction 25.24%3.96fair odd
EV -2.33%
Edge -0.601%
Kelly -0.811%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.58%25.24%25.33%28.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.423.303.8731.25%29.26%30.30%25.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.20%3.11fair odd
EV -0.176%
Edge -0.057%
Kelly -0.084%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.43%32.20%32.07%33.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.912.903.1036.36%34.42%34.48%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: C.D. Cuenca (Local): 42.56%; Santos (Visit): 25.24%; Draw: 32.20%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.11. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.10, with an expected value of -0.176%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 41.39%EV -0.409%E -0.175%K -0.306%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 27.36%EV -10.66%E -3.01%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.25%EV -0.176%E -0.057%K -0.084%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-08 21:59
Unibet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.76%EV -1.26%E -0.543%K -0.955%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.23%EV -15.45%E -4.61%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.01%EV -1.79%E -0.586%K -0.871%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-08 22:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.38%EV -2.11%E -0.918%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -16.71%E -5.06%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.48%EV -5.01%E -1.70%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-08 22:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.38%EV -2.11%E -0.918%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -16.71%E -5.06%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.48%EV -5.01%E -1.70%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-08 22:00
Casumo🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.83%EV -2.96%E -1.30%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -17.97%E -5.53%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV -1.79%E -0.586%K -0.871%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-08 22:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.59%EV -2.96%E -1.30%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -16.71%E -5.06%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.37%EV -5.01%E -1.70%K -2.57%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-08 22:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -4.24%E -1.88%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -17.97%E -5.53%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -6.62%E -2.28%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-08 22:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -4.24%E -1.88%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -17.97%E -5.53%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -6.62%E -2.28%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-08 22:00
LeoVegas🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.47%EV -5.09%E -2.28%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.20%EV -19.24%E -6.01%K -8.74%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.33%EV -7.26%E -2.52%K -3.86%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-08 22:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.33%EV -5.09%E -2.28%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -19.24%E -6.01%K -8.74%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.56%EV -8.23%E -2.89%K -4.45%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-08 22:00
Pinnacle🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.85%EV -5.52%E -2.48%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 24.58%EV -2.33%E -0.601%K -0.811%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.58%EV -5.97%E -2.05%K -3.11%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-08 21:59
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.73%EV -6.37%E -2.89%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -6.62%E -1.79%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -5.01%E -1.70%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-08 22:00
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.35%EV -6.37%E -2.89%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.53%EV -7.88%E -2.16%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -6.62%E -2.28%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-08 22:00
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.37%E -2.89%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.73%EV -9.14%E -2.54%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.16%EV -7.26%E -2.52%K -3.86%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-08 22:00
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -6.37%E -2.89%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -17.97%E -5.53%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -3.40%E -1.13%K -1.70%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-08 22:00
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.47%EV -6.37%E -2.89%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -9.14%E -2.54%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.18%EV -11.45%E -4.16%K -6.54%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-08 22:00
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.37%EV -6.37%E -2.89%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.33%EV -17.97%E -5.53%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.30%EV -11.45%E -4.16%K -6.54%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-08 22:00
NordicBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.33%EV -7.22%E -3.31%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.94%EV -6.62%E -1.79%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.73%EV -9.19%E -3.26%K -5.05%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-08 21:59
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -10.62%E -5.06%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.67%E -3.33%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -9.84%E -3.51%K -5.46%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-08 22:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.25%EV -12.75%E -6.22%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.25%EV -16.71%E -5.06%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.50%EV -11.45%E -4.16%K -6.54%G +0.000%15.4%2026-04-08 21:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.74%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.15%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.11%0.7%2026-04-08 22:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.15%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.97%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.88%1.4%2026-04-08 22:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 42.69%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.64%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.66%2.7%2026-04-08 22:00
Matchbook◎2.26I 44.25%NM 42.22%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.11%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.67%4.8%2026-04-08 22:00
Smarkets◎2.06I 48.54%NM 43.12%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.38%2.82I 35.46%NM 31.50%12.6%2026-04-08 22:00