The School of Odds
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C.D. Cuenca v San Lorenzo

Kickoff: 2026-05-06 02:00 UTC

Final: C.D. Cuenca 0–0 San Lorenzo

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

C.D. Cuenca (Local)

Prediction 32.23%3.10fair odd
EV -2.66%
Edge -0.879%
Kelly -1.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.55%32.23%32.50%35.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.762.703.0238.46%36.24%37.04%33.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

San Lorenzo (Visit)

Prediction 33.33%3.00fair odd
EV -2.66%
Edge -0.912%
Kelly -1.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.63%33.33%33.39%36.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.702.752.9240.82%37.00%36.36%34.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 34.43%2.90fair odd
EV +10.18%
Edge +3.18%
Kelly +4.63%
Growth +0.471%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.24%34.43%34.11%35.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.902.853.2038.17%34.48%35.09%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: C.D. Cuenca (Local): 32.23%; San Lorenzo (Visit): 33.33%; Draw: 34.43%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.90. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.18%.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.19%EV -11.36%E -4.13%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.56%EV -6.66%E -2.38%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.24%EV +10.18%E +3.18%K +4.63%G +0.471%3.3%2026-05-06 01:54
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.05%EV -12.97%E -4.80%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.42%EV -8.33%E -3.03%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV +6.74%E +2.17%K +3.21%G +0.216%5.7%2026-05-06 01:55
Casumo🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.05%EV -12.97%E -4.80%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.42%EV -8.33%E -3.03%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV +6.74%E +2.17%K +3.21%G +0.216%5.7%2026-05-06 01:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.05%EV -12.97%E -4.80%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.42%EV -8.33%E -3.03%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV +6.74%E +2.17%K +3.21%G +0.216%5.7%2026-05-06 01:54
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.05%EV -12.97%E -4.80%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.42%EV -8.33%E -3.03%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV +6.74%E +2.17%K +3.21%G +0.216%5.7%2026-05-06 01:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.02%EV -16.19%E -6.23%K -10.12%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.62%EV -12.33%E -4.69%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV +3.30%E +1.10%K +1.65%G +0.054%9.8%2026-05-06 01:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.02%EV -16.19%E -6.23%K -10.12%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.62%EV -12.33%E -4.69%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV +3.30%E +1.10%K +1.65%G +0.054%9.8%2026-05-06 01:50
LeoVegas🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.02%EV -16.19%E -6.23%K -10.12%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.62%EV -12.33%E -4.69%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV +3.30%E +1.10%K +1.65%G +0.054%9.8%2026-05-06 01:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.02%EV -16.19%E -6.23%K -10.12%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.62%EV -12.33%E -4.69%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV +3.30%E +1.10%K +1.65%G +0.054%9.8%2026-05-06 01:50
1xBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.64%EV -3.30%E -1.10%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.51%EV -13.33%E -5.13%K -8.33%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.85%EV +2.61%E +0.875%K +1.32%G +0.034%5.4%2026-05-06 01:50
Bovada🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -8.14%E -2.85%K -4.40%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -8.33%E -3.03%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -1.87%E -0.656%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-06 01:51
Coolbet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.79%EV -6.52%E -2.25%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.25%EV -4.66%E -1.63%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.59%E -1.28%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-06 01:44
DraftKings🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -6.52%E -2.25%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -8.33%E -3.03%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -3.59%E -1.28%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-06 01:35
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.53%EV -11.36%E -4.13%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.53%EV -8.33%E -3.03%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.93%EV -3.59%E -1.28%K -1.99%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-06 01:45
Coral🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.85%EV -12.97%E -4.80%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.48%EV -16.66%E -6.67%K -11.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -3.59%E -1.28%K -1.99%G +0.000%12.8%2026-05-06 01:15
Unibet (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.61%EV -12.97%E -4.80%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.94%EV -18.33%E -7.48%K -12.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.45%EV -3.59%E -1.28%K -1.99%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-06 01:19
SportsBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -9.75%E -3.48%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.94%EV -10.00%E -3.70%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -5.31%E -1.93%K -3.04%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-06 01:45
Paddy Power🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.13%EV -11.36%E -4.13%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.74%EV -10.00%E -3.70%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.13%EV -5.31%E -1.93%K -3.04%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-06 01:45
Sky Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.04%EV -12.97%E -4.80%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.92%EV -12.33%E -4.69%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.04%EV -7.03%E -2.60%K -4.14%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-06 01:45
Pinnacle🎯3.02I 33.11%NM 31.55%EV -2.66%E -0.879%K -1.31%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.63%EV -2.66%E -0.912%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.82%EV -8.41%E -3.16%K -5.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-06 01:50
NordicBet🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 31.75%EV -5.88%E -2.01%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.87%EV -6.00%E -2.13%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.38%EV -9.79%E -3.74%K -6.04%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-06 01:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎3.10I 32.26%NM 32.09%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.61%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.30%0.5%2026-05-06 01:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.51%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.97%0.8%2026-05-06 01:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 32.96%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.41%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63%1.1%2026-05-06 01:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 32.96%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.41%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63%1.1%2026-05-06 01:55
Smarkets◎3.00I 33.33%NM 32.73%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.40%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.86%1.8%2026-05-06 01:55