The School of Odds
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C.D. Cuenca v Recoleta FC

Kickoff: 2026-05-20 02:00 UTC

Final: C.D. Cuenca 2–2 Recoleta FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

C.D. Cuenca (Local)

Prediction 60.02%1.67fair odd
EV -0.359%
Edge -0.216%
Kelly -0.544%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.86%60.02%60.09%60.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.561.561.6668.03%64.00%64.10%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Recoleta FC (Visit)

Prediction 15.46%6.47fair odd
EV -4.16%
Edge -0.672%
Kelly -0.801%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.18%15.46%15.41%16.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.505.835.806.2018.18%17.17%17.24%16.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.52%4.08fair odd
EV -4.38%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -1.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.33%24.52%24.50%26.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.713.703.9029.41%26.96%27.03%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: C.D. Cuenca (Local): 60.02%; Recoleta FC (Visit): 15.46%; Draw: 24.52%. For C.D. Cuenca (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.67. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.66, with an expected value of -0.359%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.90%EV -0.359%E -0.216%K -0.544%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 16.03%EV -5.71%E -0.936%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.07%EV -4.38%E -1.12%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.3%2026-05-19 21:10
Casumo🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.74%EV -3.96%E -2.48%K -6.60%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.20%EV -10.35%E -1.78%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.06%EV -8.06%E -2.15%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-19 21:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.74%EV -3.96%E -2.48%K -6.60%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.20%EV -10.35%E -1.78%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.06%EV -8.06%E -2.15%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-19 21:10
Unibet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.74%EV -3.96%E -2.48%K -6.60%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.20%EV -10.35%E -1.78%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.06%EV -8.06%E -2.15%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-19 21:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.74%EV -3.96%E -2.48%K -6.60%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.20%EV -10.35%E -1.78%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.06%EV -8.06%E -2.15%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-19 21:10
Coolbet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.90%EV -4.56%E -2.87%K -7.73%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.36%EV -4.16%E -0.672%K -0.801%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.74%EV -5.61%E -1.46%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-19 21:00
Pinnacle🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.27%EV -5.76%E -3.67%K -10.11%G +0.000%6.17I 16.21%NM 15.34%EV -4.63%E -0.750%K -0.895%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.39%EV -4.87%E -1.26%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-19 22:59
1xBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.16%EV -5.76%E -3.67%K -10.11%G +0.000%6.17I 16.21%NM 15.31%EV -4.63%E -0.750%K -0.895%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.53%EV -5.61%E -1.46%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-19 21:30
DraftKings🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.90%EV -5.76%E -3.67%K -10.11%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.67%EV -7.26%E -1.21%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.43%EV -5.61%E -1.46%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-19 20:10
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.09%EV -5.76%E -3.67%K -10.11%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.58%EV -14.98%E -2.72%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -11.74%E -3.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-19 21:19
Bovada🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.05%EV -6.36%E -4.08%K -11.36%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -7.26%E -1.21%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -5.61%E -1.46%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-19 21:18
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.47%EV -6.96%E -4.49%K -12.66%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.62%EV -8.80%E -1.49%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.91%EV -9.28%E -2.51%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-19 21:10
SportsBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -6.96%E -4.49%K -12.66%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -7.26%E -1.21%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -11.74%E -3.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-19 18:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.93%EV -7.56%E -4.91%K -14.00%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.21%EV -13.44%E -2.40%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.86%EV -10.51%E -2.88%K -3.97%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-19 21:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.93%EV -7.56%E -4.91%K -14.00%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.21%EV -13.44%E -2.40%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.86%EV -10.51%E -2.88%K -3.97%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-19 21:09
Virgin Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.93%EV -7.56%E -4.91%K -14.00%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.21%EV -13.44%E -2.40%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.86%EV -10.51%E -2.88%K -3.97%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-19 21:10
LeoVegas🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.93%EV -7.56%E -4.91%K -14.00%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.21%EV -13.44%E -2.40%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.86%EV -10.51%E -2.88%K -3.97%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-19 21:10
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -8.16%E -5.33%K -15.40%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -7.26%E -1.21%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -11.74%E -3.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-19 18:40
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.71%EV -8.16%E -5.33%K -15.40%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.33%EV -14.98%E -2.72%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -11.74%E -3.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-19 21:20
Sky Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.86%EV -8.16%E -5.33%K -15.40%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.10%EV -14.98%E -2.72%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -16.64%E -4.89%K -6.93%G +0.000%13.0%2026-05-19 19:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 60.02%EV -11.76%E -8.00%K -25.03%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.48%EV -11.89%E -2.09%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.51%EV -11.74%E -3.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-19 21:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.62I 61.73%NM 60.67%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.45%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.88%1.8%2026-05-19 22:59
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.62I 61.73%NM 60.40%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.83%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.77%2.2%2026-05-19 22:59
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.62I 61.73%NM 60.40%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.83%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.77%2.2%2026-05-19 22:59
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.62I 61.73%NM 60.40%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.83%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.77%2.2%2026-05-19 22:59
Smarkets◎1.60I 62.50%NM 60.51%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.67%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.82%3.3%2026-05-19 22:59