The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Caracas FC v Racing Club

Kickoff: 2026-04-29 22:00 UTC

Final: Caracas FC 1–1 Racing Club

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Caracas FC (Local)

Prediction 21.35%4.68fair odd
EV +3.55%
Edge +0.731%
Kelly +0.921%
Growth +0.033%

assuming max odds 4.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.61%21.15%21.56%22.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.194.204.8525.64%23.86%23.81%20.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Racing Club (Visit)

Prediction 51.55%1.94fair odd
EV +3.11%
Edge +1.55%
Kelly +3.11%
Growth +0.097%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.31%51.57%51.48%52.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.831.832.0058.82%54.73%54.79%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.10%3.69fair odd
EV -3.81%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -1.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.37%27.28%26.95%28.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.313.253.5531.75%30.23%30.77%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Caracas FC (Local): 21.35%; Racing Club (Visit): 51.55%; Draw: 27.10%. For Caracas FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.68. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.55%.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.76%EV -9.26%E -2.18%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.37%EV +3.11%E +1.55%K +3.11%G +0.097%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.87%EV -9.23%E -2.75%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-23 01:04
Unibet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -12.47%E -3.04%K -4.02%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.31%EV +0.015%E +0.008%K +0.016%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -11.94%E -3.67%K -5.31%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 01:04
Unibet (NL)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -12.47%E -3.04%K -4.02%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.44%EV -0.500%E -0.259%K -0.538%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -11.94%E -3.67%K -5.31%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 01:04
Casumo🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -12.47%E -3.04%K -4.02%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.44%EV -0.500%E -0.259%K -0.538%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -11.94%E -3.67%K -5.31%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 01:04
Svenska Spel🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -12.47%E -3.04%K -4.02%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.44%EV -0.500%E -0.259%K -0.538%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -11.94%E -3.67%K -5.31%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 01:04
Virgin Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.68%EV -14.60%E -3.65%K -4.87%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.52%EV -3.59%E -1.92%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.80%EV -14.65%E -4.65%K -6.81%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-23 01:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.68%EV -14.60%E -3.65%K -4.87%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.52%EV -3.59%E -1.92%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.80%EV -14.65%E -4.65%K -6.81%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-23 01:04
LeoVegas🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.68%EV -14.60%E -3.65%K -4.87%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.52%EV -3.59%E -1.92%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.80%EV -14.65%E -4.65%K -6.81%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-23 01:04
LiveScore Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.68%EV -14.60%E -3.65%K -4.87%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.52%EV -3.59%E -1.92%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.80%EV -14.65%E -4.65%K -6.81%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-23 01:04
888sport🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -10.33%E -2.46%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.03%EV -5.66%E -3.09%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -11.94%E -3.67%K -5.31%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-21 16:45
William Hill🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -10.33%E -2.46%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.03%EV -5.66%E -3.09%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -11.94%E -3.67%K -5.31%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-21 16:44
888sport (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -10.33%E -2.46%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.03%EV -5.66%E -3.09%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -11.94%E -3.67%K -5.31%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-21 16:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -10.33%E -2.46%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.03%EV -5.66%E -3.09%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -11.94%E -3.67%K -5.31%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-21 16:45
Bovada🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -8.20%E -1.91%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.65%EV -6.17%E -3.39%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV -3.81%E -1.07%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-22 23:07
NordicBet🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.72%EV -9.26%E -2.18%K -2.85%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.72%EV -6.17%E -3.39%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.56%EV -9.23%E -2.75%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-21 16:25
Coolbet🎯4.85I 20.62%NM 19.61%EV +3.55%E +0.731%K +0.921%G +0.033%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.83%EV -7.20%E -4.00%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.56%EV -6.52%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-21 16:04
1xBet🎯4.39I 22.78%NM 21.21%EV -6.27%E -1.43%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.73%EV -7.20%E -4.00%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.07%EV -6.79%E -1.97%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-23 06:30
DraftKings🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.97%EV -10.33%E -2.46%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.27%EV -7.20%E -4.00%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -6.52%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-22 10:39
Pinnacle🎯4.49I 22.27%NM 20.82%EV -4.14%E -0.922%K -1.19%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.23%EV -7.72%E -4.31%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 26.94%EV -5.98%E -1.72%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-22 22:05
Unibet (UK)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.56%EV -9.26%E -2.18%K -2.85%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.48%EV -8.23%E -4.63%K -10.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.95%EV -7.87%E -2.32%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-21 18:34
SportsBet🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -7.56%E -1.75%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -9.78%E -5.59%K -13.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -7.87%E -2.32%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-22 23:00
Coral🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -14.60%E -3.65%K -4.87%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.22%EV -9.78%E -5.59%K -13.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -7.87%E -2.32%K -3.28%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-22 06:05
Paddy Power🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.94%EV -7.56%E -1.75%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.40%EV -10.81%E -6.25%K -14.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -7.87%E -2.32%K -3.28%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-22 22:59
betfred_uk🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.27%EV -10.33%E -2.46%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.65%EV -10.81%E -6.25%K -14.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -10.58%E -3.21%K -4.60%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-22 22:59
Unibet (FR)🎯4.05I 24.69%NM 21.67%EV -13.53%E -3.34%K -4.44%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 51.32%EV -11.84%E -6.93%K -16.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.00%EV -11.94%E -3.67%K -5.31%G +0.000%13.9%2026-04-23 22:04
Sky Bet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.16%EV -16.74%E -4.29%K -5.77%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 50.84%EV -12.36%E -7.27%K -17.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.01%EV -13.29%E -4.15%K -6.04%G +0.000%15.7%2026-04-22 23:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.50I 22.22%NM 20.94%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.93%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%6.1%2026-04-23 22:49
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.50I 22.22%NM 20.94%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.93%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%6.1%2026-04-24 03:10
Smarkets◎2.42I 41.32%NM 30.18%1.82I 54.95%NM 40.13%2.46I 40.65%NM 29.69%36.9%2026-04-24 03:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 53.40%1.85I 54.05%NM 30.02%3.35I 29.85%NM 16.58%80.1%2026-04-24 03:40