The School of Odds
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Carabobo FC v Blooming

Kickoff: 2026-04-30 22:00 UTC

Final: Carabobo FC 2–0 Blooming

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Carabobo FC (Local)

Prediction 56.02%1.79fair odd
EV -0.840%
Edge -0.475%
Kelly -1.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.69%56.27%55.68%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.661.651.7763.69%60.36%60.61%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Blooming (Visit)

Prediction 18.99%5.27fair odd
EV -1.25%
Edge -0.241%
Kelly -0.299%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.90%18.80%19.08%20.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.334.784.805.2023.09%20.90%20.83%19.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.99%4.00fair odd
EV -4.30%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -1.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.04%24.93%25.24%25.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.653.703.8329.85%27.37%27.03%26.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carabobo FC (Local): 56.02%; Blooming (Visit): 18.99%; Draw: 24.99%. For Carabobo FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.79. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.77, with an expected value of -0.840%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.73%EV -0.840%E -0.475%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.77%EV -6.95%E -1.42%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.49%EV -5.05%E -1.33%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-23 23:30
Unibet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.71%EV -3.08%E -1.78%K -4.22%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -8.85%E -1.84%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.58%EV -7.54%E -2.04%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-23 23:29
Casumo🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.71%EV -3.08%E -1.78%K -4.22%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -8.85%E -1.84%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.58%EV -7.54%E -2.04%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-23 23:29
Unibet (NL)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.71%EV -3.08%E -1.78%K -4.22%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -8.85%E -1.84%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.58%EV -7.54%E -2.04%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-23 23:29
Svenska Spel🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.71%EV -3.08%E -1.78%K -4.22%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -8.85%E -1.84%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.58%EV -7.54%E -2.04%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-23 23:29
Coolbet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.66%EV -4.76%E -2.80%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.11%EV -6.00%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.23%EV -6.29%E -1.68%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-21 15:49
Bovada🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.35%EV -7.00%E -4.22%K -10.61%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -5.05%E -1.01%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.94%EV -6.29%E -1.68%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-23 22:13
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.69%EV -7.00%E -4.22%K -10.61%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.74%EV -12.65%E -2.75%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.57%EV -11.29%E -3.18%K -4.43%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-23 23:29
LeoVegas🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.69%EV -7.00%E -4.22%K -10.61%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.74%EV -12.65%E -2.75%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.57%EV -11.29%E -3.18%K -4.43%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-23 23:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.69%EV -7.00%E -4.22%K -10.61%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.74%EV -12.65%E -2.75%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.57%EV -11.29%E -3.18%K -4.43%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-23 23:29
LiveScore Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.69%EV -7.00%E -4.22%K -10.61%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.74%EV -12.65%E -2.75%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.57%EV -11.29%E -3.18%K -4.43%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-23 23:29
888sport🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.49%EV -7.56%E -4.58%K -11.64%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.08%EV -8.85%E -1.84%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.43%EV -10.04%E -2.79%K -3.86%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-22 06:30
William Hill🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.49%EV -7.56%E -4.58%K -11.64%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.08%EV -8.85%E -1.84%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.43%EV -10.04%E -2.79%K -3.86%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-22 06:29
888sport (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.49%EV -7.56%E -4.58%K -11.64%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.08%EV -8.85%E -1.84%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.43%EV -10.04%E -2.79%K -3.86%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-22 06:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.49%EV -7.56%E -4.58%K -11.64%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.08%EV -8.85%E -1.84%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.43%EV -10.04%E -2.79%K -3.86%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-22 06:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.49%EV -7.56%E -4.58%K -11.64%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.08%EV -8.85%E -1.84%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.43%EV -10.04%E -2.79%K -3.86%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-21 17:40
1xBet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.92%EV -8.12%E -4.95%K -12.69%G +0.000%5.19I 19.27%NM 17.99%EV -1.44%E -0.278%K -0.345%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.09%EV -7.04%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 22:14
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.92%EV -9.24%E -5.71%K -14.91%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.82%EV -6.95%E -1.42%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -5.05%E -1.33%K -1.80%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-22 10:39
NordicBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.65%EV -9.24%E -5.71%K -14.91%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.54%EV -6.00%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.81%EV -7.54%E -2.04%K -2.79%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-23 22:09
betfred_uk🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.49%EV -9.24%E -5.71%K -14.91%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.54%EV -12.65%E -2.75%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -10.04%E -2.79%K -3.86%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-23 22:20
Pinnacle🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.80%EV -9.80%E -6.09%K -16.07%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.90%EV -1.25%E -0.241%K -0.299%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 24.30%EV -4.30%E -1.12%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-23 22:20
SportsBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.73%EV -9.80%E -6.09%K -16.07%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.23%EV -9.80%E -2.06%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.04%EV -5.05%E -1.33%K -1.80%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-23 22:19
Paddy Power🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.71%EV -10.36%E -6.48%K -17.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.10%EV -9.80%E -2.06%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.19%EV -6.29%E -1.68%K -2.29%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-23 22:19
Unibet (FR)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 54.71%EV -10.92%E -6.87%K -18.52%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.33%EV -14.55%E -3.23%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.96%EV -16.29%E -4.86%K -6.93%G +0.000%15.0%2026-04-21 17:44
Sky Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 55.21%EV -12.04%E -7.67%K -21.13%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.02%EV -17.77%E -4.11%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.77%EV -12.54%E -3.58%K -5.02%G +0.000%15.4%2026-04-23 22:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.58I 63.29%NM 54.19%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.46%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.35%16.8%2026-04-23 21:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-04-23 21:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-04-23 21:19
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-04-23 21:20