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CA Tigre BA v Montevideo City Torque

Kickoff: 2026-08-12 22:00 UTC

Final: CA Tigre BA 0–1 Montevideo City Torque

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

CA Tigre BA (Local)

Prediction 50.96%1.96fair odd
EV -3.17%
Edge -1.67%
Kelly -3.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.65%50.81%50.93%51.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.821.831.9057.80%54.93%54.64%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Montevideo City Torque (Visit)

Prediction 18.12%5.52fair odd
EV -0.315%
Edge -0.057%
Kelly -0.070%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.45%18.10%18.09%20.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.015.005.5022.22%19.95%20.00%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.91%3.23fair odd
EV -1.07%
Edge -0.336%
Kelly -0.488%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.00%31.09%30.98%32.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.983.003.2035.71%33.55%33.33%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: CA Tigre BA (Local): 50.96%; Montevideo City Torque (Visit): 18.12%; Draw: 30.91%. For Montevideo City Torque (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.52. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.50, with an expected value of -0.315%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
betfred_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -3.17%E -1.67%K -3.53%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.54%EV -18.44%E -4.10%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.26%E -2.42%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-12 21:54
Bovada🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.93%EV -4.19%E -2.23%K -4.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -9.38%E -1.88%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.29%EV -7.26%E -2.42%K -3.63%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-12 21:50
Coolbet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.59%EV -5.21%E -2.80%K -6.06%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.45%EV -0.315%E -0.057%K -0.070%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV -4.17%E -1.34%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-12 21:19
Codere (IT)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.20%EV -5.21%E -2.80%K -6.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -9.38%E -1.88%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.26%E -2.42%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-12 21:49
ATG (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.89%EV -5.72%E -3.09%K -6.73%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.11%EV -3.94%E -0.743%K -0.916%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.00%EV -1.07%E -0.336%K -0.488%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-12 21:19
LeoVegas🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.84%EV -5.72%E -3.09%K -6.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -9.38%E -1.88%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -4.17%E -1.34%K -1.98%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-12 21:49
Unibet (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.34%EV -5.72%E -3.09%K -6.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -9.38%E -1.88%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.04%EV -7.26%E -2.42%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-12 21:50
NordicBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.82%EV -5.72%E -3.09%K -6.73%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.62%EV -10.28%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.56%EV -9.73%E -3.33%K -5.07%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-12 21:54
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -5.72%E -3.09%K -6.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -9.38%E -1.88%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -13.44%E -4.80%K -7.47%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-12 21:54
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -5.72%E -3.09%K -6.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -9.38%E -1.88%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -13.44%E -4.80%K -7.47%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-12 21:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -5.72%E -3.09%K -6.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -9.38%E -1.88%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -13.44%E -4.80%K -7.47%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-12 21:54
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -5.72%E -3.09%K -6.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -9.38%E -1.88%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -13.44%E -4.80%K -7.47%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-12 21:55
Pinnacle🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.92%EV -6.74%E -3.68%K -8.12%G +0.000%5.39I 18.55%NM 17.63%EV -2.31%E -0.428%K -0.526%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.45%EV -3.55%E -1.14%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-12 21:50
DraftKings🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.58%EV -6.74%E -3.68%K -8.12%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.98%EV -4.85%E -0.923%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.45%EV -4.17%E -1.34%K -1.98%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-12 21:49
SportsBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.39%EV -7.25%E -3.98%K -8.84%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.98%EV -7.56%E -1.48%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.63%EV -10.35%E -3.57%K -5.45%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-12 21:45
Unibet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.72%EV -8.27%E -4.59%K -10.34%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.25%EV -7.56%E -1.48%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -4.17%E -1.34%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-12 21:20
Casumo🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.72%EV -8.27%E -4.59%K -10.34%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.25%EV -7.56%E -1.48%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -4.17%E -1.34%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-12 21:19
Unibet (NL)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.72%EV -8.27%E -4.59%K -10.34%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.25%EV -7.56%E -1.48%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -4.17%E -1.34%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-12 21:19
Svenska Spel🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.72%EV -8.27%E -4.59%K -10.34%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.25%EV -7.56%E -1.48%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -4.17%E -1.34%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-12 21:19
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.38%EV -8.27%E -4.59%K -10.34%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -9.38%E -1.88%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.49%EV -10.97%E -3.81%K -5.83%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-12 21:49
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.56%EV -8.27%E -4.59%K -10.34%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.58%EV -13.00%E -2.71%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.86%EV -13.44%E -4.80%K -7.47%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-12 21:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.42%EV -11.33%E -6.51%K -15.31%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.26%EV -11.19%E -2.28%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.33%EV -8.80%E -2.98%K -4.51%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-12 21:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.26%EV -11.84%E -6.84%K -16.22%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.67%EV -13.91%E -2.93%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.06%EV -8.80%E -2.98%K -4.51%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-12 21:19
Virgin Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.26%EV -11.84%E -6.84%K -16.22%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.67%EV -13.91%E -2.93%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.06%EV -8.80%E -2.98%K -4.51%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-12 21:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.26%EV -11.84%E -6.84%K -16.22%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.67%EV -13.91%E -2.93%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.06%EV -8.80%E -2.98%K -4.51%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-12 21:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.93I 51.81%NM 51.50%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.44%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.06%0.6%2026-08-12 21:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.94I 51.55%NM 51.12%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.40%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.48%0.8%2026-08-12 21:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.94I 51.55%NM 51.12%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.40%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.48%0.8%2026-08-12 21:50
Smarkets◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.22%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.56%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.22%1.7%2026-08-12 21:55

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