The School of Odds
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CA Boston River v Racing Club

Kickoff: 2026-03-05 22:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

CA Boston River (Local)

Prediction 30.84%3.24fair odd
EV +3.00%
Edge +0.898%
Kelly +1.28%
Growth +0.038%

assuming max odds 3.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.02%30.95%30.84%34.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.862.803.3437.04%34.99%35.71%29.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Racing Club (Visit)

Prediction 36.32%2.75fair odd
EV -1.94%
Edge -0.718%
Kelly -1.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.70%36.05%36.32%38.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.552.552.7041.67%39.27%39.22%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.84%3.04fair odd
EV -1.47%
Edge -0.490%
Kelly -0.734%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.63%33.01%32.84%34.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.902.923.0036.36%34.47%34.19%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: CA Boston River (Local): 30.84%; Racing Club (Visit): 36.32%; Draw: 32.84%. For CA Boston River (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.24. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.34, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.34I 29.94%NM 29.02%EV +3.00%E +0.898%K +1.28%G +0.038%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.01%EV -7.39%E -2.90%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.97%EV -3.44%E -1.17%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-05 21:55
Pinnacle🎯3.11I 32.15%NM 30.63%EV -4.09%E -1.32%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.64%EV -5.57%E -2.14%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.73%EV -4.42%E -1.52%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-05 21:55
DraftKings🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.54%EV -7.49%E -2.50%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.39%EV -5.57%E -2.14%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.07%EV -3.11%E -1.05%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-05 21:50
Coolbet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -7.49%E -2.50%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -1.94%E -0.718%K -1.14%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.07%EV -9.68%E -3.52%K -5.53%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-05 21:34
William Hill🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -7.49%E -2.50%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -9.20%E -3.68%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -9.68%E -3.52%K -5.53%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-05 21:49
888sport🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -7.49%E -2.50%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -9.20%E -3.68%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -9.68%E -3.52%K -5.53%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-05 21:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -7.49%E -2.50%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -9.20%E -3.68%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -9.68%E -3.52%K -5.53%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-05 21:45
888sport (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -7.49%E -2.50%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -9.20%E -3.68%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -9.68%E -3.52%K -5.53%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-05 21:45
NordicBet🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 31.08%EV -8.10%E -2.72%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.76%EV -8.48%E -3.36%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.16%EV -5.41%E -1.88%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-05 21:45
SportsBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -13.65%E -4.88%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -9.20%E -3.68%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -4.75%E -1.64%K -2.50%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-05 21:35
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.17%EV -13.65%E -4.88%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.77%EV -11.02%E -4.50%K -7.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.06%EV -4.75%E -1.64%K -2.50%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-05 21:35
Coral🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.82%EV -13.65%E -4.88%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.13%EV -12.84%E -5.35%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.05%EV -5.74%E -2.00%K -3.07%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-05 21:50
Sky Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.50%EV -15.20%E -5.53%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -11.02%E -4.50%K -7.60%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.03%EV -5.41%E -1.88%K -2.88%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-05 21:35
Casumo🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.03%EV -16.74%E -6.20%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.34%EV -5.57%E -2.14%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -1.47%E -0.490%K -0.734%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-05 21:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.03%EV -16.74%E -6.20%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.34%EV -5.57%E -2.14%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -1.47%E -0.490%K -0.734%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-05 21:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.03%EV -16.74%E -6.20%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.34%EV -5.57%E -2.14%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -1.47%E -0.490%K -0.734%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-05 21:45
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.03%EV -16.74%E -6.20%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.34%EV -5.57%E -2.14%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -1.47%E -0.490%K -0.734%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-05 21:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.03%EV -16.74%E -6.20%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.34%EV -5.57%E -2.14%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -1.47%E -0.490%K -0.734%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-05 21:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.03%EV -16.74%E -6.20%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.34%EV -5.57%E -2.14%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -1.47%E -0.490%K -0.734%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-05 21:45
LeoVegas🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.62%EV -16.74%E -6.20%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.60%EV -7.39%E -2.90%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.77%EV -3.11%E -1.05%K -1.60%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-05 21:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.62%EV -16.74%E -6.20%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.60%EV -7.39%E -2.90%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.77%EV -3.11%E -1.05%K -1.60%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-05 21:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.62%EV -16.74%E -6.20%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.60%EV -7.39%E -2.90%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.77%EV -3.11%E -1.05%K -1.60%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-05 21:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.50%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.45%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.05%0.9%2026-03-05 21:55
Matchbook◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.50%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.45%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.05%0.9%2026-03-05 21:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.42%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.96%1.1%2026-03-05 21:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.20I 31.25%NM 30.75%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.45%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.80%1.6%2026-03-05 21:55
Smarkets◎3.20I 31.25%NM 30.38%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.55%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.07%2.9%2026-03-05 21:55