L’École des cotesFrançais
Botafogo v Club Independiente Petrolero
Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →
Résultat du match
Botafogo (Local)
Prévision 87.93%1.14cote équitable
EV -4.16%
Avantage -3.82%
Kelly -46.21%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 1.09
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
84.41%87.93%87.97%89.42%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.031.061.061.0997.09%94.46%94.34%91.74%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Club Independiente Petrolero (Visiteur)
Prévision 2.79%35.90cote équitable
EV +0.283%
Avantage +0.008%
Kelly +0.008%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 36.00
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
2.64%2.79%2.72%4.82%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
19.0029.3531.0036.005.26%3.41%3.23%2.78%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Match nul
Prévision 9.29%10.77cote équitable
EV +16.08%
Avantage +1.29%
Kelly +1.40%
Croissance +0.225%
avec la cote maximale 12.50
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
7.80%9.29%9.31%11.12%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
7.9010.4210.2012.5012.66%9.60%9.80%8.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Cotes des opérateurs (23 opérateurs)
Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur | Match nul ▼ | Marge | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE) | 1.09I 91.74%NM 89.42%EV -4.16%E -3.82%K -46.21%G +0.000% | 35.00I 2.86%NM 2.78%EV -2.50%E -0.072%K -0.074%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.80%EV +16.08%E +1.29%K +1.40%G +0.225% | 2.6% | 2026-04-23 10:50 |
| Casumo | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.08%EV -6.80%E -6.41%K -113.27%G +0.000% | 31.00I 3.23%NM 3.05%EV -13.65%E -0.440%K -0.455%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.87%EV +11.44%E +0.953%K +1.04%G +0.119% | 5.9% | 2026-04-23 10:50 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.08%EV -6.80%E -6.41%K -113.27%G +0.000% | 31.00I 3.23%NM 3.05%EV -13.65%E -0.440%K -0.455%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.87%EV +11.44%E +0.953%K +1.04%G +0.119% | 5.9% | 2026-04-23 10:49 |
| Unibet | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.08%EV -6.80%E -6.41%K -113.27%G +0.000% | 31.00I 3.23%NM 3.05%EV -13.65%E -0.440%K -0.455%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.87%EV +11.44%E +0.953%K +1.04%G +0.119% | 5.9% | 2026-04-23 10:50 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.08%EV -6.80%E -6.41%K -113.27%G +0.000% | 31.00I 3.23%NM 3.05%EV -13.65%E -0.440%K -0.455%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.87%EV +11.44%E +0.953%K +1.04%G +0.119% | 5.9% | 2026-04-23 10:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.03I 97.09%NM 88.65%EV -9.43%E -9.16%K -314.48%G +0.000% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.04%EV -16.43%E -0.548%K -0.567%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.30%EV +2.15%E +0.196%K +0.215%G +0.005% | 9.5% | 2026-04-18 22:35 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.03I 97.09%NM 88.65%EV -9.43%E -9.16%K -314.48%G +0.000% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.04%EV -16.43%E -0.548%K -0.567%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.30%EV +2.15%E +0.196%K +0.215%G +0.005% | 9.5% | 2026-04-18 22:35 |
| LeoVegas | 1.03I 97.09%NM 88.65%EV -9.43%E -9.16%K -314.48%G +0.000% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.04%EV -16.43%E -0.548%K -0.567%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.30%EV +2.15%E +0.196%K +0.215%G +0.005% | 9.5% | 2026-04-18 22:35 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.03I 97.09%NM 88.65%EV -9.43%E -9.16%K -314.48%G +0.000% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.04%EV -16.43%E -0.548%K -0.567%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.30%EV +2.15%E +0.196%K +0.215%G +0.005% | 9.5% | 2026-04-18 22:34 |
| Coolbet | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.21%EV -5.04%E -4.66%K -62.97%G +0.000% | 35.00I 2.86%NM 2.72%EV -2.50%E -0.072%K -0.074%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.07%EV -2.49%E -0.237%K -0.262%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-20 23:19 |
| SportsBet | 1.05I 95.24%NM 87.69%EV -7.68%E -7.31%K -153.52%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.54%EV -27.57%E -1.06%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.77%EV -2.49%E -0.237%K -0.262%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-17 14:44 |
| 1xBet | 1.05I 95.24%NM 87.97%EV -7.68%E -7.31%K -153.52%G +0.000% | 31.00I 3.23%NM 2.98%EV -13.65%E -0.440%K -0.455%G +0.000% | 10.20I 9.80%NM 9.06%EV -5.28%E -0.517%K -0.574%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-24 00:09 |
| 888sport | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.87%EV -5.04%E -4.66%K -62.97%G +0.000% | 36.00I 2.78%NM 2.64%EV +0.283%E +0.008%K +0.008%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -7.13%E -0.713%K -0.793%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-21 19:19 |
| William Hill | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.87%EV -5.04%E -4.66%K -62.97%G +0.000% | 36.00I 2.78%NM 2.64%EV +0.283%E +0.008%K +0.008%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -7.13%E -0.713%K -0.793%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-21 19:19 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.87%EV -5.04%E -4.66%K -62.97%G +0.000% | 36.00I 2.78%NM 2.64%EV +0.283%E +0.008%K +0.008%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -7.13%E -0.713%K -0.793%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-21 19:19 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.87%EV -5.04%E -4.66%K -62.97%G +0.000% | 36.00I 2.78%NM 2.64%EV +0.283%E +0.008%K +0.008%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -7.13%E -0.713%K -0.793%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-21 19:19 |
| Bovada | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.10%EV -5.92%E -5.53%K -84.53%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.58%EV -27.57%E -1.06%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -7.13%E -0.713%K -0.793%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-21 10:15 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.06I 94.34%NM 87.70%EV -6.80%E -6.41%K -113.27%G +0.000% | 31.00I 3.23%NM 3.00%EV -13.65%E -0.440%K -0.455%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.30%EV -7.13%E -0.713%K -0.793%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-23 22:04 |
| Paddy Power | 1.06I 94.34%NM 87.20%EV -6.80%E -6.41%K -113.27%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.56%EV -27.57%E -1.06%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -7.13%E -0.713%K -0.793%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-23 22:02 |
| Coral | 1.07I 93.46%NM 85.55%EV -5.92%E -5.53%K -84.53%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.82%EV -47.07%E -2.48%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV -11.78%E -1.24%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-22 01:04 |
| betfred_uk | 1.06I 94.34%NM 84.71%EV -6.80%E -6.41%K -113.27%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.73%EV -47.07%E -2.48%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.56%EV -21.06%E -2.48%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-04-22 08:15 |
| Sky Bet | 1.04I 96.15%NM 84.41%EV -8.56%E -8.23%K -213.88%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.62%EV -47.07%E -2.48%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 10.97%EV -25.71%E -3.21%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-04-17 14:43 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.04I 96.15%NM 84.48%EV -8.56%E -8.23%K -213.88%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.39%EV -44.29%E -2.21%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 7.90I 12.66%NM 11.12%EV -26.64%E -3.37%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-04-22 22:05 |
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu
Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.
Plateformes d’échange (1)
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur | Match nul | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets | 1.03I 97.09%NM 83.20% | 17.51I 5.71%NM 4.89% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 11.90% | 16.7% | 2026-04-22 02:10 |