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Boca Juniors v Vasco da Gama
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Boca Juniors (Local)
Prediction 43.93%2.28fair odd
EV -4.67%
Edge -2.15%
Kelly -3.99%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.17
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.98%43.92%43.89%46.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.942.082.102.1751.55%48.06%47.62%46.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Vasco da Gama (Visit)
Prediction 24.03%4.16fair odd
EV +2.14%
Edge +0.503%
Kelly +0.658%
Growth +0.014%
assuming max odds 4.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.75%24.05%24.07%25.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.863.804.2528.57%25.88%26.32%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 32.04%3.12fair odd
EV -0.685%
Edge -0.221%
Kelly -0.326%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.56%32.04%32.04%33.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.892.883.1037.04%34.56%34.78%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Boca Juniors (Local): 43.93%; Vasco da Gama (Visit): 24.03%; Draw: 32.04%. For Vasco da Gama (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.16. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.14%.
Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.05%EV -7.75%E -3.69%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.75%EV +2.14%E +0.503%K +0.658%G +0.014% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.20%EV -0.685%E -0.221%K -0.326%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-10-14 00:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -5.99%E -2.80%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.92%EV +0.938%E +0.223%K +0.293%G +0.003% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.09%EV -3.89%E -1.30%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-14 00:14 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -5.55%E -2.58%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 4.18I 23.92%NM 23.01%EV +0.457%E +0.109%K +0.144%G +0.001% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.27%EV -4.53%E -1.52%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-14 00:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.25%EV -7.75%E -3.69%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 4.08I 24.51%NM 23.29%EV -1.95%E -0.477%K -0.632%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 31.46%EV -3.25%E -1.08%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-14 00:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.66%EV -10.38%E -5.09%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -3.87%E -0.967%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -3.89%E -1.30%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-14 00:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.66%EV -10.38%E -5.09%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -3.87%E -0.967%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -3.89%E -1.30%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-14 00:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.66%EV -10.38%E -5.09%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -3.87%E -0.967%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -3.89%E -1.30%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-14 00:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.66%EV -10.38%E -5.09%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -3.87%E -0.967%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -3.89%E -1.30%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-14 00:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.69%EV -7.75%E -3.69%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%EV -3.87%E -0.967%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.37%EV -11.90%E -4.33%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-14 00:24 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.99%EV -5.55%E -2.58%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.95%EV -5.07%E -1.28%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.06%EV -5.49%E -1.86%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-14 00:14 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.70%EV -6.87%E -3.24%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV -5.07%E -1.28%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 32.85%EV -9.66%E -3.42%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-14 00:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.62%EV -5.55%E -2.58%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -6.27%E -1.61%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.34%EV -7.09%E -2.45%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-14 00:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.85%EV -5.55%E -2.58%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -8.68%E -2.28%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -10.30%E -3.68%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-14 00:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.85%EV -5.55%E -2.58%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -8.68%E -2.28%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -10.30%E -3.68%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-14 00:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.85%EV -5.55%E -2.58%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -8.68%E -2.28%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -10.30%E -3.68%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-14 00:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.85%EV -5.55%E -2.58%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -8.68%E -2.28%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -10.30%E -3.68%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-14 00:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.50%EV -9.94%E -4.85%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.47%EV -8.68%E -2.28%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -13.50%E -5.00%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-10-13 23:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.50%EV -9.94%E -4.85%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.47%EV -8.68%E -2.28%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -13.50%E -5.00%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-10-14 00:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.51%EV -14.34%E -7.35%K -15.09%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.35%EV -8.68%E -2.28%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.14%EV -8.69%E -3.05%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-10-14 00:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.51%EV -14.34%E -7.35%K -15.09%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.35%EV -8.68%E -2.28%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.14%EV -8.69%E -3.05%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-10-14 00:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 45.64%EV -14.78%E -7.62%K -15.72%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.30%EV -8.68%E -2.28%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.06%EV -8.69%E -3.05%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-10-14 00:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 45.64%EV -14.78%E -7.62%K -15.72%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.30%EV -8.68%E -2.28%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.06%EV -8.69%E -3.05%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-10-14 00:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.06%EV -4.67%E -2.15%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.26%EV -11.08%E -2.99%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -5.49%E -1.86%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-14 00:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.87%EV -7.75%E -3.69%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -11.08%E -2.99%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -5.49%E -1.86%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-13 23:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.14%EV -5.55%E -2.58%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.41%EV -12.28%E -3.36%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.44%EV -5.49%E -1.86%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-14 00:14 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -7.75%E -3.69%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -13.48%E -3.75%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -3.89%E -1.30%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-13 23:49 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 44.90%EV -14.78%E -7.62%K -15.72%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.54%EV -14.68%E -4.14%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.56%EV -8.69%E -3.05%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-10-14 00:14 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.98%EV -5.55%E -2.58%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -15.89%E -4.54%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -10.30%E -3.68%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-10-13 23:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.33% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.57% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.10% | 0.7% | 2026-10-14 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.13% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.47% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.40% | 1.2% | 2026-10-14 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.13% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.47% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.40% | 1.2% | 2026-10-14 00:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.90% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.87% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.22% | 1.7% | 2026-10-14 00:20 |