The School of Odds

Boca Juniors v O'Higgins

Kickoff: 2026-07-22 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

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Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Boca Juniors (Local)

Prediction 64.49%1.55fair odd
EV -7.79%
Edge -5.44%
Kelly -18.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.00%64.49%64.49%70.60%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.321.361.361.4376%73%74%70%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

O'Higgins (Visit)

Prediction 12.46%8.02fair odd
EV +13.40%
Edge +1.47%
Kelly +1.65%
Growth +0.222%

assuming max odds 9.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.78%12.46%12.46%13.89%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
6.257.607.509.1016%13%13%11%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 23.05%4.34fair odd
EV +21.03%
Edge +4.01%
Kelly +4.95%
Growth +1.04%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.75%23.05%23.05%24.18%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.604.524.905.2528%22%20%19%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet1.32I 75.76%NM 70.60%EV -14.88%E -11.27%K -46.50%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV -0.309%E -0.039%K -0.044%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.75%EV +21.03%E +4.01%K +4.95%G +1.04%7.3%2026-07-01 17:40
Unibet (NL)1.32I 75.76%NM 70.60%EV -14.88%E -11.27%K -46.50%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV -0.309%E -0.039%K -0.044%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.75%EV +21.03%E +4.01%K +4.95%G +1.04%7.3%2026-07-01 17:40
Casumo1.32I 75.76%NM 70.60%EV -14.88%E -11.27%K -46.50%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV -0.309%E -0.039%K -0.044%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.75%EV +21.03%E +4.01%K +4.95%G +1.04%7.3%2026-07-01 17:39
ATG (SE)1.32I 75.76%NM 70.60%EV -14.88%E -11.27%K -46.50%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV -0.309%E -0.039%K -0.044%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.75%EV +21.03%E +4.01%K +4.95%G +1.04%7.3%2026-07-01 17:40
Svenska Spel1.32I 75.76%NM 70.60%EV -14.88%E -11.27%K -46.50%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV -0.309%E -0.039%K -0.044%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.75%EV +21.03%E +4.01%K +4.95%G +1.04%7.3%2026-07-01 17:40
1xBet1.40I 71.43%NM 70.09%EV -9.72%E -6.94%K -24.30%G +0.000%9.10I 10.99%NM 10.78%EV +13.40%E +1.47%K +1.65%G +0.222%5.13I 19.49%NM 19.13%EV +18.26%E +3.56%K +4.42%G +0.808%1.9%2026-06-12 00:00
LiveScore Bet1.32I 75.76%NM 69.19%EV -14.88%E -11.27%K -46.50%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.18%EV -6.54%E -0.872%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.64%EV +12.96%E +2.65%K +3.32%G +0.431%9.5%2026-07-01 17:30
LeoVegas (SE)1.32I 75.76%NM 69.19%EV -14.88%E -11.27%K -46.50%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.18%EV -6.54%E -0.872%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.64%EV +12.96%E +2.65%K +3.32%G +0.431%9.5%2026-07-01 17:30
Virgin Bet1.32I 75.76%NM 69.19%EV -14.88%E -11.27%K -46.50%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.18%EV -6.54%E -0.872%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.64%EV +12.96%E +2.65%K +3.32%G +0.431%9.5%2026-07-01 17:30
Codere (IT)1.43I 69.93%NM 64.49%EV -7.79%E -5.44%K -18.11%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.46%EV -7.79%E -1.05%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -7.79%E -1.95%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-04 01:19
SportsBet1.40I 71.43%NM 64.52%EV -9.72%E -6.94%K -24.30%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.90%EV -12.77%E -1.82%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -7.79%E -1.95%K -2.60%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-29 17:19
Paddy Power1.36I 73.53%NM 65.18%EV -12.30%E -9.04%K -34.17%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.66%EV -12.77%E -1.82%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.16%EV -7.79%E -1.95%K -2.60%G +0.000%12.8%2026-05-29 17:28
NordicBet1.41I 70.92%NM 65.49%EV -9.08%E -6.44%K -22.14%G +0.000%8.30I 12.05%NM 11.13%EV +3.43%E +0.413%K +0.470%G +0.016%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.38%EV -8.94%E -2.26%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-04 16:59
LeoVegas1.43I 69.93%NM 63.82%EV -7.79%E -5.44%K -18.11%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -6.54%E -0.872%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -12.40%E -3.26%K -4.43%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-29 11:19
Coral1.40I 71.43%NM 63.90%EV -9.72%E -6.94%K -24.30%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.93%EV -6.54%E -0.872%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.18%EV -14.70%E -3.97%K -5.45%G +0.000%11.8%2026-06-03 12:59
Unibet (FR)1.36I 73.53%NM 63.55%EV -12.30%E -9.04%K -34.17%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.09%EV -17.76%E -2.69%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.36%EV -14.70%E -3.97%K -5.45%G +0.000%15.7%2026-06-04 01:19
Sky Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 62.00%EV -9.72%E -6.94%K -24.30%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 13.89%EV -22.12%E -3.54%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.11%EV -17.01%E -4.72%K -6.54%G +0.000%15.2%2026-05-29 17:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.