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Boca Juniors v O'Higgins

Kickoff: 2026-07-22 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Boca Juniors (Local)

Prediction 64.49%1.55fair odd
EV -7.79%
Edge -5.44%
Kelly -18.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.00%64.49%64.49%70.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.361.361.4375.76%73.43%73.53%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

O'Higgins (Visit)

Prediction 12.46%8.02fair odd
EV +13.40%
Edge +1.47%
Kelly +1.65%
Growth +0.222%

assuming max odds 9.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.78%12.46%12.46%13.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.257.607.509.1016.00%13.16%13.33%10.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.05%4.34fair odd
EV +21.03%
Edge +4.01%
Kelly +4.95%
Growth +1.04%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.75%23.05%23.05%24.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.524.905.2527.78%22.13%20.41%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Boca Juniors (Local): 64.49%; O'Higgins (Visit): 12.46%; Draw: 23.05%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.34. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +21.03%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.60%EV -14.88%E -11.27%K -46.50%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV -0.309%E -0.039%K -0.044%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.75%EV +21.03%E +4.01%K +4.95%G +1.04%7.3%2026-07-01 17:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.60%EV -14.88%E -11.27%K -46.50%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV -0.309%E -0.039%K -0.044%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.75%EV +21.03%E +4.01%K +4.95%G +1.04%7.3%2026-07-01 17:40
Casumo🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.60%EV -14.88%E -11.27%K -46.50%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV -0.309%E -0.039%K -0.044%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.75%EV +21.03%E +4.01%K +4.95%G +1.04%7.3%2026-07-01 17:39
ATG (SE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.60%EV -14.88%E -11.27%K -46.50%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV -0.309%E -0.039%K -0.044%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.75%EV +21.03%E +4.01%K +4.95%G +1.04%7.3%2026-07-01 17:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.60%EV -14.88%E -11.27%K -46.50%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV -0.309%E -0.039%K -0.044%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.75%EV +21.03%E +4.01%K +4.95%G +1.04%7.3%2026-07-01 17:40
1xBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 70.09%EV -9.72%E -6.94%K -24.30%G +0.000%9.10I 10.99%NM 10.78%EV +13.40%E +1.47%K +1.65%G +0.222%5.13I 19.49%NM 19.13%EV +18.26%E +3.56%K +4.42%G +0.808%1.9%2026-06-12 00:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.19%EV -14.88%E -11.27%K -46.50%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.18%EV -6.54%E -0.872%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.64%EV +12.96%E +2.65%K +3.32%G +0.431%9.5%2026-07-01 17:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.19%EV -14.88%E -11.27%K -46.50%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.18%EV -6.54%E -0.872%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.64%EV +12.96%E +2.65%K +3.32%G +0.431%9.5%2026-07-01 17:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.19%EV -14.88%E -11.27%K -46.50%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.18%EV -6.54%E -0.872%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.64%EV +12.96%E +2.65%K +3.32%G +0.431%9.5%2026-07-01 17:30
Codere (IT)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.49%EV -7.79%E -5.44%K -18.11%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.46%EV -7.79%E -1.05%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -7.79%E -1.95%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-04 01:19
SportsBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.52%EV -9.72%E -6.94%K -24.30%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.90%EV -12.77%E -1.82%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -7.79%E -1.95%K -2.60%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-29 17:19
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.18%EV -12.30%E -9.04%K -34.17%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.66%EV -12.77%E -1.82%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.16%EV -7.79%E -1.95%K -2.60%G +0.000%12.8%2026-05-29 17:28
NordicBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.49%EV -9.08%E -6.44%K -22.14%G +0.000%8.30I 12.05%NM 11.13%EV +3.43%E +0.413%K +0.470%G +0.016%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.38%EV -8.94%E -2.26%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-04 16:59
LeoVegas🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.82%EV -7.79%E -5.44%K -18.11%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -6.54%E -0.872%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -12.40%E -3.26%K -4.43%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-29 11:19
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.90%EV -9.72%E -6.94%K -24.30%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.93%EV -6.54%E -0.872%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.18%EV -14.70%E -3.97%K -5.45%G +0.000%11.8%2026-06-03 12:59
Unibet (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 63.55%EV -12.30%E -9.04%K -34.17%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.09%EV -17.76%E -2.69%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.36%EV -14.70%E -3.97%K -5.45%G +0.000%15.7%2026-06-04 01:19
Sky Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 62.00%EV -9.72%E -6.94%K -24.30%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 13.89%EV -22.12%E -3.54%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.11%EV -17.01%E -4.72%K -6.54%G +0.000%15.2%2026-05-29 17:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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