The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Blooming v River Plate

Kickoff: 2026-04-10 00:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Blooming (Local)

Prediction 10.81%9.25fair odd
EV +0.530%
Edge +0.057%
Kelly +0.064%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 9.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.16%10.81%10.81%13.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.507.818.009.3015.38%12.81%12.50%10.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

River Plate (Visit)

Prediction 68.96%1.45fair odd
EV -4.83%
Edge -3.50%
Kelly -12.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.16%68.96%68.96%70.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.341.361.3876.92%74.42%73.53%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.23%4.94fair odd
EV -0.884%
Edge -0.181%
Kelly -0.227%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.06%20.23%20.23%21.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.334.554.504.9023.09%22.00%22.22%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Blooming (Local): 10.81%; River Plate (Visit): 68.96%; Draw: 20.23%. For Blooming (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.25. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.530%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯9.30I 10.75%NM 10.16%EV +0.530%E +0.057%K +0.064%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.54%EV -7.59%E -5.66%K -22.32%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.29%EV -0.884%E -0.181%K -0.227%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-23 22:34
1xBet🎯8.10I 12.35%NM 11.50%EV -12.44%E -1.54%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.48%EV -6.21%E -4.57%K -17.25%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.03%EV -5.94%E -1.28%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-25 05:50
William Hill🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.45%EV -13.52%E -1.69%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.38%EV -6.21%E -4.57%K -17.25%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.16%EV -12.41%E -2.87%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-25 05:50
888sport🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.45%EV -13.52%E -1.69%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.38%EV -6.21%E -4.57%K -17.25%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.16%EV -12.41%E -2.87%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-25 05:54
888sport (SE)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.45%EV -13.52%E -1.69%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.38%EV -6.21%E -4.57%K -17.25%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.16%EV -12.41%E -2.87%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-25 05:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.45%EV -13.52%E -1.69%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.38%EV -6.21%E -4.57%K -17.25%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.16%EV -12.41%E -2.87%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-25 05:54
SportsBet🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.31%EV -13.52%E -1.69%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 69.63%EV -10.35%E -7.96%K -34.49%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.06%EV -3.92%E -0.825%K -1.04%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-23 12:29
Paddy Power🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.31%EV -13.52%E -1.69%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 69.63%EV -10.35%E -7.96%K -34.49%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.06%EV -3.92%E -0.825%K -1.04%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-23 12:28
Bovada🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -18.93%E -2.52%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.96%EV -4.83%E -3.50%K -12.71%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -2.91%E -0.606%K -0.765%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-23 12:24
Coral🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -29.74%E -4.57%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.16%EV -6.21%E -4.57%K -17.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -8.98%E -1.99%K -2.56%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-23 17:59
Sky Bet🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.33%EV -29.74%E -4.57%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 66.66%EV -10.35%E -7.96%K -34.49%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.01%EV -12.41%E -2.87%K -3.73%G +0.000%15.4%2026-03-23 12:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-03-23 12:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-03-23 12:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-03-23 12:29