The School of Odds
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Audax Italiano v Vasco da Gama

Kickoff: 2026-05-06 22:00 UTC

Final: Audax Italiano 1–2 Vasco da Gama

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Audax Italiano (Local)

Prediction 28.78%3.47fair odd
EV -0.412%
Edge -0.119%
Kelly -0.167%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.45%28.48%28.78%30.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.173.153.4633.90%31.50%31.75%28.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Vasco da Gama (Visit)

Prediction 41.24%2.42fair odd
EV +2.28%
Edge +0.918%
Kelly +1.54%
Growth +0.035%

assuming max odds 2.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.21%41.27%41.24%42.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.282.302.4847.62%43.88%43.48%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.98%3.34fair odd
EV -2.58%
Edge -0.793%
Kelly -1.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.58%30.25%29.98%31.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.053.053.2534.48%32.75%32.79%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Audax Italiano (Local): 28.78%; Vasco da Gama (Visit): 41.24%; Draw: 29.98%. For Vasco da Gama (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.42. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.48, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.28%.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.87%EV -9.33%E -2.96%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.21%EV +2.28%E +0.918%K +1.54%G +0.035%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.92%EV -2.58%E -0.793%K -1.14%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-06 21:55
Unibet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -10.77%E -3.48%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.43%EV -1.02%E -0.426%K -0.730%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.04%EV -5.57%E -1.77%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-06 21:55
Casumo🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -10.77%E -3.48%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.43%EV -1.02%E -0.426%K -0.730%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.04%EV -5.57%E -1.77%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-06 21:55
Unibet (NL)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -10.77%E -3.48%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.43%EV -1.02%E -0.426%K -0.730%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.04%EV -5.57%E -1.77%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-06 21:55
Svenska Spel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -10.77%E -3.48%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.43%EV -1.02%E -0.426%K -0.730%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.04%EV -5.57%E -1.77%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-06 21:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.88%EV -15.09%E -5.12%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.26%EV -4.32%E -1.86%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.86%EV -8.57%E -2.81%K -4.18%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-06 21:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.88%EV -15.09%E -5.12%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.26%EV -4.32%E -1.86%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.86%EV -8.57%E -2.81%K -4.18%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-06 21:55
LeoVegas🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.88%EV -15.09%E -5.12%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.26%EV -4.32%E -1.86%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.86%EV -8.57%E -2.81%K -4.18%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-06 21:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.88%EV -15.09%E -5.12%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.26%EV -4.32%E -1.86%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.86%EV -8.57%E -2.81%K -4.18%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-06 21:55
Pinnacle🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -5.02%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.25%EV -4.73%E -2.05%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.87%EV -4.37%E -1.37%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-06 21:45
Coolbet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -5.02%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.40%EV -5.15%E -2.24%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -4.07%E -1.27%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-06 21:55
DraftKings🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.72%EV -5.02%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.20%EV -5.15%E -2.24%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.08%EV -5.57%E -1.77%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-06 21:15
Bovada🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -5.02%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.80%EV -5.15%E -2.24%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -8.57%E -2.81%K -4.18%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-06 21:44
betfred_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -13.65%E -4.55%K -6.83%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -5.15%E -2.24%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -7.07%E -2.28%K -3.37%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-06 21:09
NordicBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.29%EV -9.33%E -2.96%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.46%EV -5.97%E -2.62%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.25%EV -8.57%E -2.81%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-06 21:55
1xBet🎯3.46I 28.90%NM 27.45%EV -0.412%E -0.119%K -0.167%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.78%EV -8.45%E -3.80%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.77%EV -4.37%E -1.37%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 21:55
SportsBet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -5.02%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -9.27%E -4.21%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.07%E -3.36%K -5.04%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-06 21:55
Paddy Power🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -5.02%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -9.27%E -4.21%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -13.07%E -4.51%K -6.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-06 21:55
888sport🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -5.02%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -9.27%E -4.21%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -13.07%E -4.51%K -6.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-06 21:55
William Hill🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -5.02%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -9.27%E -4.21%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -13.07%E -4.51%K -6.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-06 21:54
888sport (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -5.02%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -9.27%E -4.21%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -13.07%E -4.51%K -6.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-06 21:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -5.02%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -9.27%E -4.21%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -13.07%E -4.51%K -6.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-06 21:55
Coral🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -10.77%E -3.48%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -11.33%E -5.27%K -9.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.07%E -3.36%K -5.04%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-06 21:30
Sky Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.84%EV -7.90%E -2.47%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.44%EV -11.33%E -5.27%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -13.07%E -4.51%K -6.88%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-06 21:55
Unibet (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.35%EV -10.77%E -3.48%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.85%EV -13.39%E -6.38%K -12.18%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.79%EV -11.57%E -3.92%K -5.93%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-06 21:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎3.60I 27.78%NM 27.62%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.78%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.60%0.6%2026-05-06 21:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.60I 27.78%NM 27.52%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.99%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49%0.9%2026-05-06 21:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.60I 27.78%NM 27.52%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.99%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49%0.9%2026-05-06 21:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.65I 27.40%NM 27.12%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.94%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.93%1.0%2026-05-06 21:55
Smarkets◎3.55I 28.17%NM 27.58%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.83%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.59%2.2%2026-05-06 21:55