The School of Odds
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América de Cali v Atlético Bucaramanga

Kickoff: 2026-03-06 00:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

América de Cali (Local)

Prediction 44.34%2.26fair odd
EV -3.33%
Edge -1.53%
Kelly -2.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.62%44.29%44.34%46.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.942.052.052.1851.55%48.73%48.78%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atlético Bucaramanga (Visit)

Prediction 24.69%4.05fair odd
EV +1.21%
Edge +0.296%
Kelly +0.391%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.32%24.72%24.69%25.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.793.774.1029.41%26.40%26.53%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.97%3.23fair odd
EV -0.899%
Edge -0.281%
Kelly -0.408%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.69%30.98%30.97%32.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.623.013.053.2038.17%33.22%32.79%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: América de Cali (Local): 44.34%; Atlético Bucaramanga (Visit): 24.69%; Draw: 30.97%. For Atlético Bucaramanga (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.05. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.21%.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.72%EV -9.09%E -4.44%K -8.66%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV +1.21%E +0.296%K +0.391%G +0.005%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.93%EV -0.899%E -0.281%K -0.408%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-06 00:00
Casumo🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.59%EV -10.42%E -5.16%K -10.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -1.26%E -0.314%K -0.418%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.88%EV -2.45%E -0.777%K -1.14%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-06 00:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.59%EV -10.42%E -5.16%K -10.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -1.26%E -0.314%K -0.418%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.88%EV -2.45%E -0.777%K -1.14%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-06 00:01
Unibet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.59%EV -10.42%E -5.16%K -10.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -1.26%E -0.314%K -0.418%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.88%EV -2.45%E -0.777%K -1.14%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-06 00:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.59%EV -10.42%E -5.16%K -10.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -1.26%E -0.314%K -0.418%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.88%EV -2.45%E -0.777%K -1.14%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-06 00:00
Pinnacle🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.47%EV -5.10%E -2.38%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 24.34%EV -3.48%E -0.889%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.20%EV -5.54%E -1.82%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-06 00:01
Virgin Bet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.72%EV -12.64%E -6.42%K -13.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.60%EV -3.72%E -0.955%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -4.00%E -1.29%K -1.90%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-06 00:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.74%EV -13.53%E -6.94%K -14.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -3.72%E -0.955%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.89%EV -5.54%E -1.82%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-06 00:00
LeoVegas🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 46.87%EV -13.97%E -7.20%K -14.86%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.32%EV -3.72%E -0.955%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.81%EV -5.54%E -1.82%K -2.70%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-06 00:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 46.87%EV -13.97%E -7.20%K -14.86%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.32%EV -3.72%E -0.955%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.81%EV -5.54%E -1.82%K -2.70%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-06 00:00
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%EV -6.88%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -6.19%E -1.63%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -4.00%E -1.29%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-06 00:00
1xBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.36%EV -6.88%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 24.58%EV -6.44%E -1.70%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -7.09%E -2.36%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-06 00:00
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -6.88%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -7.43%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -10.19%E -3.51%K -5.36%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-06 00:00
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -6.88%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -7.43%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -10.19%E -3.51%K -5.36%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-06 00:01
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -6.88%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -7.43%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -10.19%E -3.51%K -5.36%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-06 00:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -6.88%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -7.43%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -10.19%E -3.51%K -5.36%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-06 00:01
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -6.88%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -8.66%E -2.34%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -4.00%E -1.29%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-05 21:07
Coolbet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.09%EV -5.99%E -2.83%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.26%EV -8.66%E -2.34%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -5.54%E -1.82%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-05 11:30
NordicBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.62%EV -3.33%E -1.53%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -8.66%E -2.34%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.26%EV -10.81%E -3.75%K -5.75%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-06 00:00
SportsBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -9.09%E -4.44%K -8.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -11.13%E -3.09%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -7.09%E -2.36%K -3.55%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-05 21:25
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -9.09%E -4.44%K -8.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -11.13%E -3.09%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -7.09%E -2.36%K -3.55%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-05 21:25
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.62%EV -9.09%E -4.44%K -8.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.55%EV -13.60%E -3.89%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -10.19%E -3.51%K -5.36%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-05 21:25
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.62%EV -9.09%E -4.44%K -8.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.55%EV -13.60%E -3.89%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -10.19%E -3.51%K -5.36%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-05 21:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 42.77%EV -12.20%E -6.16%K -12.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.91%EV -16.07%E -4.73%K -6.69%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 32.32%EV -18.86%E -7.20%K -11.64%G +0.000%18.1%2026-02-28 10:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 45.23%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.47%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.30%1.4%2026-03-06 00:01
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 45.23%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.47%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.30%1.4%2026-03-06 00:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 45.23%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.47%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.30%1.4%2026-03-06 00:00
Matchbook◎2.18I 45.87%NM 45.23%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.47%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.30%1.4%2026-03-06 00:00
Smarkets◎2.16I 46.30%NM 44.71%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.14%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.15%3.6%2026-03-06 00:00