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UCV FC v Libertad Asuncion

Kickoff: 2026-04-07 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

UCV FC (Local)

Prediction 30.88%3.24fair odd
EV -4.26%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -2.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.96%30.85%30.88%31.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.932.983.1036.36%34.14%33.56%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Libertad Asuncion (Visit)

Prediction 38.99%2.56fair odd
EV -4.47%
Edge -1.83%
Kelly -3.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.14%39.10%38.99%39.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.302.302.4546.51%43.45%43.48%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.13%3.32fair odd
EV -5.10%
Edge -1.62%
Kelly -2.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.61%30.05%30.13%31.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.633.003.003.1538.02%33.29%33.33%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: UCV FC (Local): 30.88%; Libertad Asuncion (Visit): 38.99%; Draw: 30.13%. For UCV FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.24. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.10, with an expected value of -4.26%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.77%EV -4.26%E -1.38%K -2.03%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.94%EV -4.47%E -1.83%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.29%EV -5.10%E -1.62%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-23 01:04
Bovada🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -4.26%E -1.38%K -2.03%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.43%EV -6.42%E -2.68%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.04%EV -5.10%E -1.62%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-23 11:59
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -7.35%E -2.45%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -6.42%E -2.68%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -6.61%E -2.13%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-20 14:24
SportsBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -7.35%E -2.45%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -6.42%E -2.68%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -9.62%E -3.21%K -4.81%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-23 01:04
888sport🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -7.35%E -2.45%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -10.32%E -4.49%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -9.62%E -3.21%K -4.81%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-22 05:04
William Hill🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -7.35%E -2.45%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -10.32%E -4.49%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -9.62%E -3.21%K -4.81%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-22 05:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -7.35%E -2.45%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -10.32%E -4.49%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -9.62%E -3.21%K -4.81%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-22 05:05
888sport (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -7.35%E -2.45%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -10.32%E -4.49%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -9.62%E -3.21%K -4.81%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-22 05:05
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -7.35%E -2.45%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -10.32%E -4.49%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -9.62%E -3.21%K -4.81%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-23 07:18
Betsson🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 31.27%EV -7.97%E -2.67%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.15%EV -7.20%E -3.03%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -5.10%E -1.62%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-20 15:00
NordicBet🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 31.27%EV -7.97%E -2.67%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.15%EV -7.20%E -3.03%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -5.10%E -1.62%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-20 15:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -11.06%E -3.84%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.98%EV -10.32%E -4.49%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -9.62%E -3.21%K -4.81%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-20 17:40
Neds🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -11.06%E -3.84%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.98%EV -10.32%E -4.49%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -9.62%E -3.21%K -4.81%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-20 17:39
Coral🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 31.21%EV -11.37%E -3.96%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.94%EV -10.32%E -4.49%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.85%EV -9.62%E -3.21%K -4.81%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-20 17:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 31.21%EV -11.37%E -3.96%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.94%EV -10.32%E -4.49%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.85%EV -9.62%E -3.21%K -4.81%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-20 17:39
PMU (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 30.34%EV -11.98%E -4.20%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.31%EV -14.22%E -6.46%K -11.85%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.34%EV -14.14%E -4.96%K -7.64%G +0.000%15.6%2026-03-23 07:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 29.96%EV -13.53%E -4.83%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.14%EV -14.22%E -6.46%K -11.85%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 31.90%EV -20.77%E -7.90%K -12.74%G +0.000%19.2%2026-03-23 01:04
Betclic (FR)🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 31.10%EV -14.45%E -5.22%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 39.70%EV -15.39%E -7.09%K -13.15%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.20%EV -11.13%E -3.77%K -5.71%G +0.000%16.1%2026-03-20 12:27
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.73%EV -15.07%E -5.48%K -8.61%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.66%EV -14.22%E -6.46%K -11.85%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.61%EV -8.11%E -2.66%K -3.96%G +0.000%14.6%2026-03-20 12:30
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 30.99%EV -15.07%E -5.48%K -8.61%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 39.63%EV -16.17%E -7.52%K -14.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.38%EV -12.63%E -4.36%K -6.65%G +0.000%17.4%2026-03-20 12:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-03-23 12:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-03-23 12:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-03-23 12:04