Language:English
Sporting Cristal v Cerro Porteño
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sporting Cristal (Local)
Prediction 35.51%2.82fair odd
EV -2.33%
Edge -0.849%
Kelly -1.33%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.02%35.53%35.63%37.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.582.602.7542.02%38.79%38.46%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Cerro Porteño (Visit)
Prediction 34.14%2.93fair odd
EV +0.711%
Edge +0.241%
Kelly +0.364%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 2.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.44%33.99%33.98%35.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.742.752.9540.00%36.50%36.36%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 30.35%3.30fair odd
EV +0.142%
Edge +0.043%
Kelly +0.062%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.48%30.48%30.39%31.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.043.053.3036.36%32.90%32.79%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sporting Cristal (Local): 35.51%; Cerro Porteño (Visit): 34.14%; Draw: 30.35%. For Cerro Porteño (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.93. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.711%.
Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casumo🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 37.20%EV -6.60%E -2.51%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 33.16%EV +0.711%E +0.241%K +0.364%G +0.003% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.64%EV +0.142%E +0.043%K +0.062%G +0.000% | 2.2% | 2026-04-09 02:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 37.20%EV -6.60%E -2.51%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 33.16%EV +0.711%E +0.241%K +0.364%G +0.003% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.64%EV +0.142%E +0.043%K +0.062%G +0.000% | 2.2% | 2026-04-09 02:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.35%EV -9.79%E -3.86%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.72%EV -0.996%E -0.344%K -0.524%G +0.000% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 29.93%EV -3.80%E -1.20%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-09 01:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.00%EV -7.66%E -2.95%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.40%EV -1.68%E -0.583%K -0.893%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.60%EV -1.38%E -0.423%K -0.611%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-09 02:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.98%EV -9.44%E -3.70%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV -2.70%E -0.948%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -4.41%E -1.40%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-09 01:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.98%EV -9.44%E -3.70%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV -2.70%E -0.948%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -4.41%E -1.40%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-09 01:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.98%EV -9.44%E -3.70%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV -2.70%E -0.948%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -4.41%E -1.40%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-09 01:59 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.98%EV -9.44%E -3.70%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV -2.70%E -0.948%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -4.41%E -1.40%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-09 01:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -11.21%E -4.49%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.69%EV -2.70%E -0.948%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -5.93%E -1.91%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-09 01:59 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.57I 38.91%NM 36.36%EV -8.73%E -3.40%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 32.90%EV -3.04%E -1.07%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 30.74%EV -7.75%E -2.55%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-09 01:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.31%EV -4.11%E -1.52%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.04%EV -4.41%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 3.11I 32.15%NM 30.65%EV -5.62%E -1.81%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-09 01:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.31%EV -4.11%E -1.52%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.04%EV -4.41%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 3.11I 32.15%NM 30.65%EV -5.62%E -1.81%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-09 02:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.31%EV -4.11%E -1.52%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.04%EV -4.41%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 3.11I 32.15%NM 30.65%EV -5.62%E -1.81%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-09 01:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.27%EV -4.11%E -1.52%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.01%EV -4.41%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.72%EV -5.93%E -1.91%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-09 01:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.27%EV -4.11%E -1.52%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.01%EV -4.41%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.72%EV -5.93%E -1.91%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-09 01:51 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -11.21%E -4.49%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -4.41%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -5.93%E -1.91%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-09 02:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.40%EV -7.66%E -2.95%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -4.41%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.73%EV -12.00%E -4.14%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-09 02:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.40%EV -7.66%E -2.95%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -4.41%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.73%EV -12.00%E -4.14%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-09 01:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.40%EV -7.66%E -2.95%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -4.41%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.73%EV -12.00%E -4.14%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-09 01:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.71I 36.90%NM 35.16%EV -3.76%E -1.39%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.40%EV -5.43%E -1.96%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 30.44%EV -5.02%E -1.60%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-09 01:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -7.66%E -2.95%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -6.12%E -2.22%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -5.93%E -1.91%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-09 01:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.38%EV -6.95%E -2.65%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -6.12%E -2.22%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.90%EV -8.96%E -2.99%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-09 01:59 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.12%EV -12.99%E -5.30%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.07%EV -6.12%E -2.22%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.82%EV -7.44%E -2.44%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-09 01:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -11.21%E -4.49%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -6.12%E -2.22%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.87%EV -15.03%E -5.37%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-04-09 02:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.86%EV -7.66%E -2.95%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV -7.82%E -2.90%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -4.41%E -1.40%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-09 01:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -4.11%E -1.52%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -7.82%E -2.90%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.96%E -2.99%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-09 01:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -5.89%E -2.22%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.43%EV -7.82%E -2.90%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.48%EV -7.44%E -2.44%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-09 01:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -7.66%E -2.95%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -7.82%E -2.90%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -5.93%E -1.91%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-09 01:59 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.96%EV -9.44%E -3.70%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.97%EV -7.82%E -2.90%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -7.44%E -2.44%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-09 01:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.33%EV -12.99%E -5.30%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -7.82%E -2.90%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.70%EV -12.00%E -4.14%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-04-09 01:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.33%EV -12.99%E -5.30%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -7.82%E -2.90%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.70%EV -12.00%E -4.14%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-04-09 01:59 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.33%EV -12.99%E -5.30%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -7.82%E -2.90%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.70%EV -12.00%E -4.14%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-04-09 01:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.73I 36.63%NM 34.15%EV -3.04%E -1.12%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 34.78%EV -8.51%E -3.17%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.07%EV -8.96%E -2.99%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-09 01:59 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.46%EV -12.99%E -5.30%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 2.67I 37.45%NM 33.46%EV -8.85%E -3.31%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 30.08%EV -9.87%E -3.32%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-04-09 01:57 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.02%EV -2.33%E -0.849%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.30%EV -9.53%E -3.60%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.67%EV -7.44%E -2.44%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-09 01:59 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 2.73I 36.63%NM 34.22%EV -3.04%E -1.12%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.25%EV -9.53%E -3.60%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 30.53%EV -7.14%E -2.33%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-09 01:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -7.66%E -2.95%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -9.53%E -3.60%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -5.93%E -1.91%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-09 01:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.74%EV -9.44%E -3.70%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.39%EV -9.53%E -3.60%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.88%EV -7.44%E -2.44%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-09 02:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.74%EV -9.44%E -3.70%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.39%EV -9.53%E -3.60%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.88%EV -7.44%E -2.44%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-09 02:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.15%EV -15.48%E -6.50%K -11.21%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.37%EV -9.53%E -3.60%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.48%EV -8.96%E -2.99%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-04-09 02:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.54%EV -7.66%E -2.95%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.28%EV -10.56%E -4.03%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.18%EV -12.60%E -4.38%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-04-09 01:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 35.97%EV -12.99%E -5.30%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 33.64%EV -10.56%E -4.03%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.39%EV -12.00%E -4.14%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-04-09 02:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -7.66%E -2.95%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -11.24%E -4.32%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.89%EV -7.44%E -2.44%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-09 01:59 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.35%EV -14.76%E -6.15%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 33.56%EV -11.24%E -4.32%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.09%EV -12.00%E -4.14%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-04-09 01:59 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 34.76%EV -11.21%E -4.49%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 34.76%EV -14.65%E -5.86%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.49%EV -13.51%E -4.74%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-04-09 02:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 34.38%EV -11.21%E -4.49%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 34.38%EV -14.65%E -5.86%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.25%EV -16.55%E -6.02%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 16.4% | 2026-04-09 01:51 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.84I 35.21%NM 34.96% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 34.01% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03% | 0.7% | 2026-04-09 02:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.84I 35.21%NM 34.80% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 34.32% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.88% | 1.2% | 2026-04-09 02:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.82I 35.46%NM 34.96% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 34.23% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.81% | 1.4% | 2026-04-09 02:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.95% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.98% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.07% | 2.2% | 2026-04-09 02:00 |