The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Rosario Central v Corinthians-SP

Kickoff: 2026-08-12 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rosario Central (Local)

Prediction 40.20%2.49fair odd
EV +3.72%
Edge +1.44%
Kelly +2.36%
Growth +0.088%

assuming max odds 2.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.28%40.20%41.62%43.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.982.242.182.5850.51%44.72%45.87%38.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Corinthians-SP (Visit)

Prediction 28.74%3.48fair odd
EV -2.28%
Edge -0.671%
Kelly -0.951%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.16%28.74%28.78%29.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.203.253.4035.09%31.25%30.77%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.06%3.22fair odd
EV +0.934%
Edge +0.287%
Kelly +0.415%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.03%31.06%29.60%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.973.083.2540.82%33.63%32.52%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rosario Central (Local): 40.20%; Corinthians-SP (Visit): 28.74%; Draw: 31.06%. For Rosario Central (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.49. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.58, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.72%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betsson🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.28%EV +3.72%E +1.44%K +2.36%G +0.088%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.80%EV -6.59%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.92%EV -16.77%E -6.26%K -9.98%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-04 16:50
NordicBet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.28%EV +3.72%E +1.44%K +2.36%G +0.088%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.80%EV -6.59%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.92%EV -16.77%E -6.26%K -9.98%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-04 16:59
PlayUp🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV +0.507%E +0.203%K +0.338%G +0.002%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -19.25%E -7.41%K -12.03%G +0.000%9.7%2026-06-04 16:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.43%EV -4.32%E -1.81%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.20%EV -2.28%E -0.671%K -0.951%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.36%EV -23.91%E -9.76%K -16.49%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-30 19:09
Neds🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.43%EV -4.32%E -1.81%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.20%EV -2.28%E -0.671%K -0.951%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.36%EV -23.91%E -9.76%K -16.49%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-30 19:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.53%EV -4.72%E -1.99%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.16%EV -2.28%E -0.671%K -0.951%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.31%EV -23.91%E -9.76%K -16.49%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-30 19:10
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.53%EV -4.72%E -1.99%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.16%EV -2.28%E -0.671%K -0.951%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.31%EV -23.91%E -9.76%K -16.49%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-30 19:20
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -5.52%E -2.35%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -6.83%E -2.28%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-04 11:29
1xBet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.58%EV -7.13%E -3.09%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.67%EV -3.72%E -1.11%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.74%EV +0.313%E +0.097%K +0.140%G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-05 11:19
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -7.53%E -3.28%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -6.59%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -6.83%E -2.28%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-04 11:29
Marathon Bet🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.62%EV -9.95%E -4.44%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.78%EV -6.88%E -2.12%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -2.17%E -0.690%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-09 09:40
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -11.55%E -5.25%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -10.90%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -6.83%E -2.28%K -3.42%G +0.000%11.0%2026-06-04 11:26
Unibet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.71%EV -12.36%E -5.67%K -10.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.65%EV -6.59%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.65%EV +0.934%E +0.287%K +0.415%G +0.004%7.4%2026-05-30 15:00
Casumo🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.71%EV -12.36%E -5.67%K -10.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.65%EV -6.59%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.65%EV +0.934%E +0.287%K +0.415%G +0.004%7.4%2026-05-30 15:00
Grosvenor🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.71%EV -12.36%E -5.67%K -10.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.65%EV -6.59%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.65%EV +0.934%E +0.287%K +0.415%G +0.004%7.4%2026-05-30 15:00
BetRivers🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.71%EV -12.36%E -5.67%K -10.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.65%EV -6.59%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.65%EV +0.934%E +0.287%K +0.415%G +0.004%7.4%2026-05-30 15:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.71%EV -12.36%E -5.67%K -10.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.65%EV -6.59%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.65%EV +0.934%E +0.287%K +0.415%G +0.004%7.4%2026-05-30 15:01
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.71%EV -12.36%E -5.67%K -10.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.65%EV -6.59%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.65%EV +0.934%E +0.287%K +0.415%G +0.004%7.4%2026-05-30 14:59
Svenska Spel🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.71%EV -12.36%E -5.67%K -10.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.65%EV -6.59%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.65%EV +0.934%E +0.287%K +0.415%G +0.004%7.4%2026-05-30 15:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.71%EV -12.36%E -5.67%K -10.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.65%EV -6.59%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.65%EV +0.934%E +0.287%K +0.415%G +0.004%7.4%2026-05-30 15:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 42.17%EV -13.16%E -6.09%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.92%EV -9.47%E -3.01%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.92%EV -2.17%E -0.690%K -1.01%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-30 15:01
LiveScore Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 42.17%EV -13.16%E -6.09%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.92%EV -9.47%E -3.01%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.92%EV -2.17%E -0.690%K -1.01%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-30 15:01
PMU (FR)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 42.17%EV -13.16%E -6.09%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.92%EV -9.47%E -3.01%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.92%EV -2.17%E -0.690%K -1.01%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-16 12:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 38.92%EV -15.57%E -7.42%K -14.16%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 28.38%EV -17.23%E -5.98%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 32.70%EV -22.36%E -8.94%K -14.91%G +0.000%22.3%2026-06-04 11:29
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.44%EV -17.58%E -8.58%K -16.75%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.49%EV -15.21%E -5.16%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.07%EV -3.72%E -1.20%K -1.77%G +0.000%14.9%2026-05-30 14:59
Betclic (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.06%EV -19.59%E -9.80%K -19.59%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 28.52%EV -13.20%E -4.37%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 28.42%EV -5.90%E -1.95%K -2.91%G +0.000%16.1%2026-05-30 15:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.06%EV -19.59%E -9.80%K -19.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.71%EV -13.78%E -4.59%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.24%EV -5.28%E -1.73%K -2.57%G +0.000%16.1%2026-05-30 15:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 42.47%EV -20.40%E -10.30%K -20.81%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 29.50%EV -18.09%E -6.35%K -9.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.03%EV -6.83%E -2.28%K -3.42%G +0.000%18.9%2026-05-30 15:01
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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