Language:English
Peñarol Montevideo v Corinthians-SP
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Peñarol Montevideo (Local)
Prediction 38.49%2.60fair odd
EV -3.01%
Edge -1.19%
Kelly -1.98%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.52
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.72%38.62%38.55%41.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.382.382.5245.45%42.02%42.02%39.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Corinthians-SP (Visit)
Prediction 28.21%3.54fair odd
EV +2.12%
Edge +0.585%
Kelly +0.809%
Growth +0.017%
assuming max odds 3.62
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.92%28.09%28.29%29.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.323.303.6233.33%30.12%30.30%27.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 33.30%3.00fair odd
EV +3.23%
Edge +1.04%
Kelly +1.54%
Growth +0.050%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.29%33.29%33.16%35.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.812.813.1038.46%35.54%35.59%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Peñarol Montevideo (Local): 38.49%; Corinthians-SP (Visit): 28.21%; Draw: 33.30%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.00. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.23%.
Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 40.16%EV -5.70%E -2.33%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.11%EV -1.27%E -0.362%K -0.506%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.74%EV +3.23%E +1.04%K +1.54%G +0.050% | 1.6% | 2026-05-22 00:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 40.16%EV -5.70%E -2.33%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.11%EV -1.27%E -0.362%K -0.506%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.74%EV +3.23%E +1.04%K +1.54%G +0.050% | 1.6% | 2026-05-22 00:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.94%EV -8.40%E -3.53%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.37%EV -5.50%E -1.64%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.69%EV -0.096%E -0.032%K -0.048%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-22 00:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -15.32%E -6.97%K -12.77%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -9.73%E -3.04%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -0.096%E -0.032%K -0.048%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-22 00:09 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.03%EV -9.55%E -4.06%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%EV -5.50%E -1.64%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.89%EV -1.76%E -0.597%K -0.903%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-21 22:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.03%EV -9.55%E -4.06%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%EV -5.50%E -1.64%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.89%EV -1.76%E -0.597%K -0.903%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-22 00:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.03%EV -9.55%E -4.06%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%EV -5.50%E -1.64%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.89%EV -1.76%E -0.597%K -0.903%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-21 22:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.03%EV -9.55%E -4.06%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%EV -5.50%E -1.64%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.89%EV -1.76%E -0.597%K -0.903%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-21 22:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.03%EV -9.55%E -4.06%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%EV -5.50%E -1.64%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.89%EV -1.76%E -0.597%K -0.903%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-21 22:09 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.74%EV -3.01%E -1.19%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.91%EV -10.29%E -3.24%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.35%EV -2.09%E -0.712%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-22 00:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -7.63%E -3.18%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -6.91%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -3.43%E -1.18%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-22 00:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -15.32%E -6.97%K -12.77%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.43%EV -11.14%E -3.54%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.88%EV -3.43%E -1.18%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-22 00:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.11%EV -12.25%E -5.37%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -8.32%E -2.56%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.75%EV -4.09%E -1.42%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-22 00:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.11%EV -12.25%E -5.37%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -8.32%E -2.56%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.75%EV -4.09%E -1.42%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-22 00:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.11%EV -12.25%E -5.37%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -8.32%E -2.56%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.75%EV -4.09%E -1.42%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-22 00:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.91%EV -5.70%E -2.33%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.63%EV -2.68%E -0.776%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.45%EV -5.09%E -1.79%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-22 00:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.09%EV -5.70%E -2.33%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -9.73%E -3.04%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -5.09%E -1.79%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-22 00:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.09%EV -5.70%E -2.33%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -9.73%E -3.04%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -5.09%E -1.79%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-22 00:09 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.09%EV -5.70%E -2.33%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -9.73%E -3.04%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -5.09%E -1.79%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-22 00:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.92%EV -5.70%E -2.33%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.49%EV -11.14%E -3.54%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.59%EV -5.09%E -1.79%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-22 00:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.46%EV -5.70%E -2.33%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -5.50%E -1.64%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.41%EV -6.09%E -2.16%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-22 00:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.46%EV -5.70%E -2.33%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -5.50%E -1.64%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.41%EV -6.09%E -2.16%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-22 00:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.54%EV -8.78%E -3.71%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 27.24%EV -2.96%E -0.860%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.23%EV -6.09%E -2.16%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-22 00:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.83%EV -5.70%E -2.33%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -1.27%E -0.362%K -0.506%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.98%EV -6.76%E -2.41%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-22 00:09 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 37.99%EV -6.86%E -2.83%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -11.14%E -3.54%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -6.76%E -2.41%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-22 00:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.61%EV -9.55%E -4.06%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 28.99%EV -11.70%E -3.74%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.40%EV -6.76%E -2.41%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-22 00:09 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.19%EV -11.48%E -4.99%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.62%EV -11.14%E -3.54%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.19%EV -6.76%E -2.41%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-22 00:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.08%EV -8.78%E -3.71%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -4.09%E -1.20%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.68%EV -8.42%E -3.06%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-22 00:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -8.40%E -3.53%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -6.91%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -8.42%E -3.06%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-22 00:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -8.40%E -3.53%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -6.91%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -8.42%E -3.06%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-22 00:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -8.40%E -3.53%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -6.91%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -8.42%E -3.06%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-22 00:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -8.40%E -3.53%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -6.91%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -8.42%E -3.06%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-22 00:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.18%EV -3.01%E -1.19%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 26.58%EV +2.12%E +0.585%K +0.809%G +0.017% | 2.73I 36.63%NM 35.24%EV -9.09%E -3.33%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-22 00:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.54%EV -7.63%E -3.18%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.20%EV -4.09%E -1.20%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -10.09%E -3.74%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-22 00:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -11.48%E -4.99%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -9.73%E -3.04%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -10.09%E -3.74%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-05-22 00:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -11.48%E -4.99%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -9.73%E -3.04%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -10.09%E -3.74%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-05-22 00:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -11.48%E -4.99%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -9.73%E -3.04%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -10.09%E -3.74%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-05-22 00:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -11.48%E -4.99%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -9.73%E -3.04%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -10.09%E -3.74%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-05-22 00:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -4.55%E -1.83%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -2.68%E -0.776%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.00%EV -10.75%E -4.01%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-22 00:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -4.55%E -1.83%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -2.68%E -0.776%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.00%EV -10.75%E -4.01%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-22 00:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.86%EV -7.63%E -3.18%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 26.34%EV -0.138%E -0.039%K -0.054%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 34.80%EV -10.75%E -4.01%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-22 00:20 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 2.41I 41.49%NM 38.75%EV -7.24%E -3.00%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.59I 27.86%NM 26.01%EV +1.27%E +0.355%K +0.491%G +0.006% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.24%EV -11.75%E -4.43%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-22 00:17 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -7.63%E -3.18%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV +1.55%E +0.432%K +0.598%G +0.009% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -11.75%E -4.43%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-22 00:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.81%EV -5.70%E -2.33%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -4.09%E -1.20%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -11.75%E -4.43%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-22 00:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.84%EV -11.48%E -4.99%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.07%EV -6.91%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.09%EV -12.75%E -4.87%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-22 00:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 37.72%EV -11.48%E -4.99%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.92%EV -15.37%E -5.12%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 33.37%EV -13.42%E -5.16%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 15.3% | 2026-05-21 23:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.40% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.83% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.77% | 0.7% | 2026-05-22 00:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.40% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.83% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.77% | 0.7% | 2026-05-22 00:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.40% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.83% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.77% | 0.7% | 2026-05-22 00:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.35% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.95% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.69% | 1.6% | 2026-05-22 00:20 |