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Palmeiras-SP v Fluminense-RJ
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Palmeiras-SP (Local)
Prediction 55.04%1.82fair odd
EV -3.69%
Edge -2.11%
Kelly -4.92%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.24%55.03%54.94%57.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.691.701.7564.10%59.31%58.82%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Fluminense-RJ (Visit)
Prediction 17.27%5.79fair odd
EV +3.62%
Edge +0.603%
Kelly +0.723%
Growth +0.026%
assuming max odds 6.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.10%17.37%17.48%19.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.295.256.0021.74%18.90%19.05%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.69%3.61fair odd
EV -0.299%
Edge -0.083%
Kelly -0.115%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.95%27.59%27.59%29.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.353.403.6032.26%29.81%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Palmeiras-SP (Local): 55.04%; Fluminense-RJ (Visit): 17.27%; Draw: 27.69%. For Fluminense-RJ (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.79. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.62%.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 56.10%EV -4.79%E -2.77%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.17%EV +3.62%E +0.603%K +0.723%G +0.026% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.73%EV -3.07%E -0.877%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-10-21 21:09 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.50%EV -4.24%E -2.44%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.10%EV +3.62%E +0.603%K +0.723%G +0.026% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.40%EV -5.84%E -1.72%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-10-21 23:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.50%EV -4.24%E -2.44%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.10%EV +3.62%E +0.603%K +0.723%G +0.026% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.40%EV -5.84%E -1.72%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-10-21 23:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.46%EV -4.79%E -2.77%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 5.88I 17.01%NM 16.32%EV +1.54%E +0.263%K +0.316%G +0.005% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.22%EV -5.84%E -1.72%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-22 00:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.93%EV -5.34%E -3.10%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.59%EV +0.163%E +0.028%K +0.034%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.49%EV -3.07%E -0.877%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-22 00:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.93%EV -5.34%E -3.10%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.59%EV +0.163%E +0.028%K +0.034%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.49%EV -3.07%E -0.877%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-22 00:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.66%EV -10.84%E -6.69%K -17.49%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.39%EV -1.56%E -0.274%K -0.333%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -0.299%E -0.083%K -0.115%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-22 00:24 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.34%EV -7.54%E -4.49%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.31%EV -1.56%E -0.274%K -0.333%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 28.35%EV -9.16%E -2.79%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-21 17:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.70%EV -7.54%E -4.49%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.12%EV -1.56%E -0.274%K -0.333%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.17%EV -12.76%E -4.05%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-22 00:15 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.30%EV -5.89%E -3.44%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.89%EV -3.29%E -0.588%K -0.715%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -5.84%E -1.72%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-22 00:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.59%EV -8.64%E -5.21%K -13.09%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.18%EV -3.29%E -0.588%K -0.715%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.23%EV -14.15%E -4.56%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-22 00:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.79%EV -6.44%E -3.79%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 5.52I 18.12%NM 17.18%EV -4.67%E -0.847%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 3.51I 28.49%NM 27.02%EV -2.79%E -0.795%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-22 00:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.28%EV -4.79%E -2.77%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.39%EV -5.02%E -0.912%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.33%EV -3.07%E -0.877%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-21 17:35 |
| picklebet_au🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.99%EV -5.34%E -3.10%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -5.02%E -0.912%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -5.84%E -1.72%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-22 00:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.57%EV -7.54%E -4.49%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.97%EV -5.02%E -0.912%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -5.84%E -1.72%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-22 00:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.57%EV -7.54%E -4.49%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.97%EV -5.02%E -0.912%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -5.84%E -1.72%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-22 00:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.57%EV -7.54%E -4.49%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.97%EV -5.02%E -0.912%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -5.84%E -1.72%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-22 00:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.57%EV -7.54%E -4.49%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.97%EV -5.02%E -0.912%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -5.84%E -1.72%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-22 00:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.32%EV -8.09%E -4.84%K -12.07%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.11%EV -6.75%E -1.25%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -7.22%E -2.16%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-22 00:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.24%EV -8.64%E -5.21%K -13.09%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.98%EV -6.75%E -1.25%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -8.61%E -2.61%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-22 00:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.21%EV -9.19%E -5.57%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.19%EV -8.47%E -1.60%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.60%EV -8.61%E -2.61%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-22 00:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.83%EV -6.44%E -3.79%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.75%EV -9.34%E -1.78%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -5.84%E -1.72%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-22 00:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.89%EV -9.19%E -5.57%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.25%EV -9.34%E -1.78%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.86%EV -9.99%E -3.07%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-22 00:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.89%EV -9.19%E -5.57%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.25%EV -9.34%E -1.78%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.86%EV -9.99%E -3.07%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-22 00:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.94%EV -4.24%E -2.44%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.05%EV -10.20%E -1.96%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -7.22%E -2.16%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-22 00:25 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.74%EV -6.44%E -3.79%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.89%EV -10.20%E -1.96%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -5.84%E -1.72%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-22 00:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 54.98%EV -11.39%E -7.08%K -18.68%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.36%EV -11.93%E -2.34%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.66%EV -11.38%E -3.56%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-10-22 00:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.20%EV -5.89%E -3.44%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.54%EV -13.65%E -2.73%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -5.84%E -1.72%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-22 00:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.35%EV -6.44%E -3.79%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.48%EV -13.65%E -2.73%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -5.84%E -1.72%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-22 00:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.35%EV -6.44%E -3.79%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.48%EV -13.65%E -2.73%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -5.84%E -1.72%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-22 00:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.24%EV -4.79%E -2.77%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.42%EV -13.65%E -2.73%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.34%EV -9.99%E -3.07%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-22 00:24 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.67%EV -6.44%E -3.79%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.25%EV -13.65%E -2.73%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.08%EV -9.99%E -3.07%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-22 00:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.67%EV -6.44%E -3.79%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.25%EV -13.65%E -2.73%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.08%EV -9.99%E -3.07%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-22 00:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.67%EV -6.44%E -3.79%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.25%EV -13.65%E -2.73%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.08%EV -9.99%E -3.07%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-22 00:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.12%EV -8.09%E -4.84%K -12.07%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.08%EV -13.65%E -2.73%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -9.99%E -3.07%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-10-22 00:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.12%EV -8.09%E -4.84%K -12.07%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.08%EV -13.65%E -2.73%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -9.99%E -3.07%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-10-22 00:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.12%EV -8.09%E -4.84%K -12.07%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.08%EV -13.65%E -2.73%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -9.99%E -3.07%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-10-22 00:14 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.12%EV -8.09%E -4.84%K -12.07%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.08%EV -13.65%E -2.73%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -9.99%E -3.07%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-10-22 00:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.10%EV -10.84%E -6.69%K -17.49%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.85%EV -13.65%E -2.73%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.05%EV -8.61%E -2.61%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-22 00:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.10%EV -10.84%E -6.69%K -17.49%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.85%EV -13.65%E -2.73%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.05%EV -8.61%E -2.61%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-22 00:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 54.72%EV -10.29%E -6.31%K -16.34%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.84%EV -13.65%E -2.73%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.44%EV -9.99%E -3.07%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-10-22 00:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 55.80%EV -14.14%E -9.07%K -25.26%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.41%EV -13.65%E -2.73%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.79%EV -9.99%E -3.07%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-10-22 00:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.85%EV -3.69%E -2.11%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV -15.38%E -3.14%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV -3.07%E -0.877%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-22 00:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.36%EV -6.44%E -3.79%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.86%EV -15.38%E -3.14%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.78%EV -4.45%E -1.29%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-22 00:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.36%EV -6.44%E -3.79%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.86%EV -15.38%E -3.14%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.78%EV -4.45%E -1.29%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-22 00:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.34%E -3.10%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.54%EV -17.97%E -3.78%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -3.07%E -0.877%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-22 00:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.49%EV -6.44%E -3.79%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.77%EV -20.56%E -4.47%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.74%EV -5.84%E -1.72%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-22 00:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.77I 56.50%NM 56.39% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.63% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.98% | 0.2% | 2026-10-22 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.53% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.58% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.89% | 0.5% | 2026-10-22 00:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.77I 56.50%NM 56.18% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.57% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.24% | 0.6% | 2026-10-22 00:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.32% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.52% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.16% | 0.9% | 2026-10-22 00:25 |