Language:English
Nacional de Montevideo v Deportes Tolima
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Nacional de Montevideo (Local)
Prediction 46.99%2.13fair odd
EV -3.68%
Edge -1.79%
Kelly -3.50%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.00%47.17%46.93%49.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.851.961.952.0554.05%51.03%51.28%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Deportes Tolima (Visit)
Prediction 23.42%4.27fair odd
EV +5.39%
Edge +1.20%
Kelly +1.54%
Growth +0.083%
assuming max odds 4.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.59%23.31%23.46%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.024.004.5027.78%24.89%25.00%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.59%3.38fair odd
EV -2.34%
Edge -0.711%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.55%29.52%29.61%30.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.143.153.3035.71%31.84%31.75%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nacional de Montevideo (Local): 46.99%; Deportes Tolima (Visit): 23.42%; Draw: 29.59%. For Deportes Tolima (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.27. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.39%.
Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.77%EV -6.03%E -3.01%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.67%EV +5.39%E +1.20%K +1.54%G +0.083% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.56%EV -2.34%E -0.711%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-04-14 21:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.77%EV -6.03%E -3.01%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.67%EV +5.39%E +1.20%K +1.54%G +0.083% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.56%EV -2.34%E -0.711%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-04-14 21:44 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.72%EV -8.37%E -4.29%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.59%EV +3.05%E +0.693%K +0.897%G +0.027% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.69%EV -5.30%E -1.66%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-14 21:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.27%EV -6.50%E -3.26%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 4.37I 22.88%NM 21.98%EV +2.35%E +0.537%K +0.696%G +0.016% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 29.74%EV -4.42%E -1.37%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-14 21:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.86%EV -9.31%E -4.83%K -10.02%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.68%EV +1.88%E +0.432%K +0.561%G +0.011% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.47%EV -5.30%E -1.66%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-14 21:44 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.73%EV -9.31%E -4.83%K -10.02%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.87%EV +0.707%E +0.164%K +0.214%G +0.002% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -5.30%E -1.66%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-14 21:44 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.73%EV -9.31%E -4.83%K -10.02%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.87%EV +0.707%E +0.164%K +0.214%G +0.002% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -5.30%E -1.66%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-14 21:44 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.73%EV -9.31%E -4.83%K -10.02%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.87%EV +0.707%E +0.164%K +0.214%G +0.002% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -5.30%E -1.66%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-14 21:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.73%EV -9.31%E -4.83%K -10.02%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.87%EV +0.707%E +0.164%K +0.214%G +0.002% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -5.30%E -1.66%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-14 21:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.64%EV -9.78%E -5.10%K -10.64%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.72%EV +0.707%E +0.164%K +0.214%G +0.002% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -6.78%E -2.15%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-14 21:44 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.52%EV -11.19%E -5.92%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 4.28I 23.36%NM 21.87%EV +0.239%E +0.056%K +0.073%G +0.000% | 3.27I 30.58%NM 28.62%EV -3.23%E -0.989%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-14 21:50 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.82%EV -8.37%E -4.29%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -1.63%E -0.389%K -0.511%G +0.000% | 3.11I 32.15%NM 29.98%EV -7.97%E -2.56%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-14 21:42 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -8.37%E -4.29%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -1.63%E -0.389%K -0.511%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -8.26%E -2.67%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-14 21:45 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.82%EV -12.13%E -6.49%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -1.63%E -0.389%K -0.511%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -8.26%E -2.67%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-14 21:44 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.82%EV -12.13%E -6.49%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -1.63%E -0.389%K -0.511%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -8.26%E -2.67%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-14 21:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.82%EV -12.13%E -6.49%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -1.63%E -0.389%K -0.511%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -8.26%E -2.67%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-14 21:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.21%EV -5.09%E -2.52%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.98%EV -2.81%E -0.676%K -0.891%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.80%EV -5.30%E -1.66%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-14 21:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.21%EV -5.09%E -2.52%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.98%EV -2.81%E -0.676%K -0.891%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.80%EV -5.30%E -1.66%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-14 21:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.46%EV -6.03%E -3.01%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.87%EV -2.81%E -0.676%K -0.891%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.66%EV -5.30%E -1.66%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-14 21:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.87%EV -8.37%E -4.29%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.49%EV -2.81%E -0.676%K -0.891%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -6.78%E -2.15%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-14 21:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.66%EV -3.68%E -1.79%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.91%EV -6.32%E -1.58%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.43%EV -3.82%E -1.18%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-14 21:46 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.62%EV -6.03%E -3.01%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -6.32%E -1.58%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -8.26%E -2.67%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-14 19:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.87%EV -6.97%E -3.52%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -6.32%E -1.58%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.93%EV -8.26%E -2.67%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-14 21:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.30%EV -10.25%E -5.37%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.59%EV -6.32%E -1.58%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -11.22%E -3.74%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-14 21:45 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.92%EV -4.62%E -2.27%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.99I 25.06%NM 23.87%EV -6.55%E -1.64%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.26I 30.67%NM 29.21%EV -3.53%E -1.08%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-14 21:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.17%EV -6.97%E -3.52%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.64%EV -7.49%E -1.90%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -5.30%E -1.66%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-14 21:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.17%EV -6.97%E -3.52%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.64%EV -7.49%E -1.90%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -5.30%E -1.66%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-14 21:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -8.37%E -4.29%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -8.66%E -2.22%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -8.26%E -2.67%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-14 21:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -8.37%E -4.29%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -8.66%E -2.22%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -8.26%E -2.67%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-14 21:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -8.37%E -4.29%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -8.66%E -2.22%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -8.26%E -2.67%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-14 21:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -8.37%E -4.29%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -8.66%E -2.22%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -8.26%E -2.67%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-14 21:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.39%EV -6.97%E -3.52%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 3.83I 26.11%NM 23.98%EV -10.30%E -2.69%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.63%EV -8.26%E -2.67%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-14 21:43 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.66%EV -3.68%E -1.79%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -11.00%E -2.90%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -6.78%E -2.15%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-14 21:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.69%EV -6.03%E -3.01%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -11.00%E -2.90%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -3.82%E -1.18%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-14 21:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.69%EV -6.03%E -3.01%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -11.00%E -2.90%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -3.82%E -1.18%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-14 21:30 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.05%EV -6.03%E -3.01%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -11.00%E -2.90%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -8.26%E -2.67%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-14 21:30 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -8.37%E -4.29%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -12.17%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -5.30%E -1.66%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-14 21:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.09%EV -8.84%E -4.56%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -12.17%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -5.30%E -1.66%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-14 21:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.09%EV -13.07%E -7.07%K -15.38%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 23.87%EV -14.52%E -3.98%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.04%EV -11.22%E -3.74%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-04-14 21:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -6.03%E -3.01%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -15.69%E -4.36%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.22%E -3.74%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-04-14 21:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -6.03%E -3.01%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -15.69%E -4.36%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.22%E -3.74%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-04-14 21:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -6.03%E -3.01%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -15.69%E -4.36%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.22%E -3.74%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-04-14 21:29 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -6.03%E -3.01%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -15.69%E -4.36%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.22%E -3.74%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-04-14 21:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 46.76%EV -11.66%E -6.20%K -13.25%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.42%EV -15.69%E -4.36%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.82%EV -9.74%E -3.19%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-04-14 21:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 45.19%EV -10.25%E -5.37%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.98%EV -15.69%E -4.36%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.83%EV -17.14%E -6.12%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 15.8% | 2026-04-14 21:44 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.26% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.61% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.13% | 0.6% | 2026-04-14 21:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.26% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.61% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.13% | 0.6% | 2026-04-14 21:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.26% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.61% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.13% | 0.6% | 2026-04-14 21:45 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.30% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.68% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.02% | 2.5% | 2026-04-14 21:45 |