The School of Odds
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Flamengo-RJ v Independiente Medellín

Kickoff: 2026-04-14 22:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Flamengo-RJ (Local)

Prediction 73.36%1.36fair odd
EV -5.37%
Edge -4.16%
Kelly -18.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.09%73.32%73.36%75.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.241.251.2985.47%80.56%80.00%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Independiente Medellín (Visit)

Prediction 8.46%11.82fair odd
EV +6.59%
Edge +0.523%
Kelly +0.568%
Growth +0.037%

assuming max odds 12.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.59%8.50%8.46%10.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.7510.3611.0012.6012.90%9.65%9.09%7.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.18%5.50fair odd
EV +1.82%
Edge +0.326%
Kelly +0.397%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 5.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.08%18.18%18.18%18.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.025.005.6021.74%19.91%20.00%17.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Flamengo-RJ (Local): 73.36%; Independiente Medellín (Visit): 8.46%; Draw: 18.18%. For Independiente Medellín (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.82. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.59%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.33%EV -6.84%E -5.38%K -25.32%G +0.000%12.60I 7.94%NM 7.59%EV +6.59%E +0.523%K +0.568%G +0.037%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.08%EV +1.82%E +0.326%K +0.397%G +0.007%4.5%2026-03-25 01:49
Marathon Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.63%EV -8.30%E -6.64%K -33.21%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.77%EV +1.51%E +0.126%K +0.137%G +0.002%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -3.63%E -0.685%K -0.844%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-25 01:44
Betsson🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.58%EV -5.37%E -4.16%K -18.51%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.51%EV -6.95%E -0.632%K -0.695%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.91%EV -9.99%E -2.02%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-23 12:04
NordicBet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.58%EV -5.37%E -4.16%K -18.51%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.51%EV -6.95%E -0.632%K -0.695%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.91%EV -9.99%E -2.02%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-23 12:05
SportsBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.33%EV -8.30%E -6.64%K -33.21%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -6.95%E -0.632%K -0.695%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -9.09%E -1.82%K -2.27%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-20 21:24
888sport🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.33%EV -8.30%E -6.64%K -33.21%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -6.95%E -0.632%K -0.695%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -9.09%E -1.82%K -2.27%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-21 10:25
William Hill🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.33%EV -8.30%E -6.64%K -33.21%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -6.95%E -0.632%K -0.695%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -9.09%E -1.82%K -2.27%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-21 10:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.33%EV -8.30%E -6.64%K -33.21%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -6.95%E -0.632%K -0.695%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -9.09%E -1.82%K -2.27%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-21 10:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.33%EV -8.30%E -6.64%K -33.21%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -6.95%E -0.632%K -0.695%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -9.09%E -1.82%K -2.27%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-21 10:25
Betway🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.74%EV -5.37%E -4.16%K -18.51%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -15.41%E -1.54%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.87%EV -4.54%E -0.865%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-20 20:55
Paddy Power🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 73.21%EV -10.50%E -8.61%K -47.74%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.93%EV -15.41%E -1.54%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.86%EV -9.09%E -1.82%K -2.27%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-20 21:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 73.68%EV -14.17%E -12.11%K -83.36%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.07%EV -19.64%E -2.07%K -2.31%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.24%EV -9.09%E -1.82%K -2.27%G +0.000%16.0%2026-03-20 21:24
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 71.58%EV -12.70%E -10.68%K -66.86%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 9.90%EV -27.25%E -3.17%K -3.59%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.52%EV -16.36%E -3.56%K -4.54%G +0.000%17.4%2026-03-20 21:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 71.77%EV -11.24%E -9.29%K -53.51%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.86%EV -32.33%E -4.04%K -4.62%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.37%EV -9.09%E -1.82%K -2.27%G +0.000%15.1%2026-03-20 21:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 71.09%EV -12.70%E -10.68%K -66.86%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 10.92%EV -34.44%E -4.44%K -5.10%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.00%EV -14.54%E -3.09%K -3.93%G +0.000%18.2%2026-03-20 21:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 66.87%4.30I 23.26%NM 16.17%4.10I 24.39%NM 16.96%43.8%2026-03-24 11:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 66.87%4.30I 23.26%NM 16.17%4.10I 24.39%NM 16.96%43.8%2026-03-24 11:34
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 66.87%4.30I 23.26%NM 16.17%4.10I 24.39%NM 16.96%43.8%2026-03-24 11:35
Smarkets◎1.03I 97.09%NM 61.18%2.78I 35.97%NM 22.67%3.90I 25.64%NM 16.16%58.7%2026-03-22 23:10