The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Estudiantes La Plata v Flamengo-RJ

Kickoff: 2026-10-13 22:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Estudiantes La Plata (Local)

Prediction 26.53%3.77fair odd
EV +0.829%
Edge +0.218%
Kelly +0.296%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.89%26.53%26.53%28.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.363.253.8031.25%29.77%30.77%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Flamengo-RJ (Visit)

Prediction 42.61%2.35fair odd
EV +0.558%
Edge +0.236%
Kelly +0.410%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 2.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.61%42.61%42.61%44.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.122.192.152.3647.17%45.66%46.51%42.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.86%3.24fair odd
EV -4.34%
Edge -1.40%
Kelly -2.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.48%30.86%30.86%31.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.902.982.943.1034.48%33.59%34.01%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Estudiantes La Plata (Local): 26.53%; Flamengo-RJ (Visit): 42.61%; Draw: 30.86%. For Estudiantes La Plata (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.77. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.829%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV +0.829%E +0.218%K +0.296%G +0.002%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.61%EV -9.67%E -4.56%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.51%EV -4.34%E -1.40%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-01 22:30
BetUS🎯3.57I 28.01%NM 26.13%EV -5.27%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.39%EV -8.39%E -3.90%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 30.48%EV -5.58%E -1.82%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-28 08:05
1xBet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.21%EV -9.78%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.64%EV +0.558%E +0.236%K +0.410%G +0.002%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.14%EV -4.96%E -1.61%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-23 16:25
Marathon Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.18%EV -12.44%E -3.77%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 40.61%EV -2.42%E -1.06%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.21%EV -8.05%E -2.70%K -4.06%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-23 23:08
Neds🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.84%EV -15.09%E -4.72%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.44%EV -8.39%E -3.90%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -10.52%E -3.63%K -5.53%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-02 16:50
Coral🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.84%EV -15.09%E -4.72%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.44%EV -8.39%E -3.90%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -10.52%E -3.63%K -5.53%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-02 16:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.84%EV -15.09%E -4.72%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.44%EV -8.39%E -3.90%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -10.52%E -3.63%K -5.53%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-02 16:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.84%EV -15.09%E -4.72%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.44%EV -8.39%E -3.90%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -10.52%E -3.63%K -5.53%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-02 16:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 32.84%1.17I 85.47%NM 32.84%1.12I 89.29%NM 34.31%160.2%2026-09-23 16:22
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 32.84%1.17I 85.47%NM 32.84%1.12I 89.29%NM 34.31%160.2%2026-09-23 16:21
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 32.84%1.17I 85.47%NM 32.84%1.12I 89.29%NM 34.31%160.2%2026-09-23 16:22