Language:English
Deportivo La Guaira v Independiente Rivadavia
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Deportivo La Guaira (Local)
Prediction 20.50%4.88fair odd
EV +2.49%
Edge +0.497%
Kelly +0.622%
Growth +0.015%
assuming max odds 5.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.49%20.52%20.54%22.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.494.505.0023.81%22.27%22.22%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Independiente Rivadavia (Visit)
Prediction 50.95%1.96fair odd
EV +1.91%
Edge +0.953%
Kelly +1.91%
Growth +0.036%
assuming max odds 2.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.42%50.90%50.83%52.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.851.842.0057.80%54.05%54.35%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.55%3.50fair odd
EV -0.076%
Edge -0.022%
Kelly -0.031%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.44%28.58%28.63%30.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.203.203.5035.71%31.29%31.25%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Deportivo La Guaira (Local): 20.50%; Independiente Rivadavia (Visit): 50.95%; Draw: 28.55%. For Deportivo La Guaira (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.88. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.49%.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.75%EV -3.66%E -0.779%K -0.990%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.77%EV +1.91%E +0.953%K +1.91%G +0.036% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.48%EV -8.64%E -2.70%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-05-21 21:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.75%EV -3.66%E -0.779%K -0.990%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.77%EV +1.91%E +0.953%K +1.91%G +0.036% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.48%EV -8.64%E -2.70%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-05-21 21:49 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.37I 22.88%NM 21.64%EV -10.43%E -2.39%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.99%EV -1.66%E -0.860%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.37%EV -8.07%E -2.51%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-21 21:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -7.76%E -1.72%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.75%EV -1.66%E -0.860%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -11.50%E -3.71%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-21 21:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -7.76%E -1.72%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.75%EV -1.66%E -0.860%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -11.50%E -3.71%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-21 21:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -7.76%E -1.72%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.75%EV -1.66%E -0.860%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -11.50%E -3.71%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-21 21:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -7.76%E -1.72%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.75%EV -1.66%E -0.860%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -11.50%E -3.71%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-21 21:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -7.76%E -1.72%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.75%EV -1.66%E -0.860%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -11.50%E -3.71%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-21 21:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -7.76%E -1.72%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.63%EV -2.17%E -1.13%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -12.92%E -4.24%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-21 21:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.96%EV -12.89%E -3.03%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.87%EV -2.68%E -1.40%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -8.64%E -2.70%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-21 21:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.71%EV -11.86%E -2.76%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.13%EV -3.19%E -1.68%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -8.64%E -2.70%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-21 21:40 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -13.91%E -3.31%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.42%EV -3.19%E -1.68%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.68%EV -11.50%E -3.71%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-21 21:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.32I 23.15%NM 22.00%EV -11.45%E -2.65%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.29%EV -3.70%E -1.96%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.43I 29.15%NM 27.71%EV -2.07%E -0.605%K -0.854%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-21 21:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.40%EV -3.66%E -0.779%K -0.990%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.99%EV -4.21%E -2.24%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.61%EV -4.36%E -1.30%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-21 21:46 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.40%EV -3.66%E -0.779%K -0.990%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.99%EV -4.21%E -2.24%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.61%EV -4.36%E -1.30%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-21 21:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.94%EV -10.84%E -2.49%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.70%EV -4.72%E -2.52%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.36%EV -14.35%E -4.78%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-21 21:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.94%EV -10.84%E -2.49%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.70%EV -4.72%E -2.52%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.36%EV -14.35%E -4.78%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-21 21:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.94%EV -10.84%E -2.49%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.70%EV -4.72%E -2.52%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.36%EV -14.35%E -4.78%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-21 21:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.49%EV +2.49%E +0.497%K +0.622%G +0.015% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.67%EV -5.74%E -3.10%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.84%EV -0.076%E -0.022%K -0.031%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-05-21 21:49 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.64%EV -0.588%E -0.121%K -0.153%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.49%EV -5.74%E -3.10%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.87%EV -5.79%E -1.75%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-21 21:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.64%EV -0.588%E -0.121%K -0.153%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.49%EV -5.74%E -3.10%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.87%EV -5.79%E -1.75%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-21 21:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -5.71%E -1.24%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -5.74%E -3.10%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -8.64%E -2.70%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-21 21:39 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.81I 20.79%NM 19.95%EV -1.41%E -0.293%K -0.369%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 52.15%EV -6.25%E -3.39%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 27.90%EV -1.79%E -0.520%K -0.733%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-21 21:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -5.71%E -1.24%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 50.86%EV -6.25%E -3.39%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV -7.21%E -2.22%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-21 21:49 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -7.76%E -1.72%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.08%EV -6.76%E -3.69%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.15%EV -5.22%E -1.57%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-21 21:36 |
| Everygame🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -7.76%E -1.72%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -6.76%E -3.69%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -5.79%E -1.75%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-21 21:39 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.02%EV -9.81%E -2.23%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.53%EV -6.76%E -3.69%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -7.21%E -2.22%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-21 21:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -3.66%E -0.779%K -0.990%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.35%EV -7.27%E -3.99%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -7.21%E -2.22%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-21 21:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -3.66%E -0.779%K -0.990%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.35%EV -7.27%E -3.99%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -7.21%E -2.22%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-21 21:28 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -5.71%E -1.24%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.27%EV -7.27%E -3.99%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 28.45%EV -6.36%E -1.94%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-21 21:50 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.44%EV -7.76%E -1.72%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 50.82%EV -7.78%E -4.30%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -8.64%E -2.70%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-21 21:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -7.76%E -1.72%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.83%EV -8.28%E -4.60%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -2.93%E -0.862%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-21 21:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.12%EV -5.71%E -1.24%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.41%EV -8.28%E -4.60%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.47%EV -7.21%E -2.22%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-21 21:29 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -9.81%E -2.23%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.72%EV -8.28%E -4.60%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.53%EV -8.64%E -2.70%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-21 21:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -9.81%E -2.23%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.72%EV -8.28%E -4.60%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.53%EV -8.64%E -2.70%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-21 21:49 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -9.81%E -2.23%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.72%EV -8.28%E -4.60%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.53%EV -8.64%E -2.70%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-21 21:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -9.81%E -2.23%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.72%EV -8.28%E -4.60%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.53%EV -8.64%E -2.70%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-21 21:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.22%EV -11.86%E -2.76%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.70%EV -8.28%E -4.60%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.08%EV -7.21%E -2.22%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-21 21:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV -9.81%E -2.23%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.49%EV -8.28%E -4.60%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.85%EV -10.07%E -3.20%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-21 21:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.56%EV -9.81%E -2.23%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.26%EV -8.28%E -4.60%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.18%EV -11.50%E -3.71%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-05-21 21:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.82%EV -11.25%E -2.60%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.09%EV -8.28%E -4.60%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.09%EV -11.50%E -3.71%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-21 21:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.82%EV -11.25%E -2.60%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.09%EV -8.28%E -4.60%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.09%EV -11.50%E -3.71%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-21 21:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.82%EV -11.25%E -2.60%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.09%EV -8.28%E -4.60%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.09%EV -11.50%E -3.71%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-21 21:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.82%EV -11.25%E -2.60%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.09%EV -8.28%E -4.60%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.09%EV -11.50%E -3.71%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-21 21:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.28%EV -13.91%E -3.31%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 50.79%EV -10.32%E -5.87%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.93%EV -8.64%E -2.70%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-21 21:49 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.27%EV -8.79%E -1.97%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.54%EV -10.83%E -6.19%K -14.44%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.19%EV -8.64%E -2.70%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-21 21:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 19.80%EV -11.25%E -2.60%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 49.57%EV -11.85%E -6.85%K -16.23%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.63%EV -20.06%E -7.16%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 16.6% | 2026-05-21 21:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.07% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.19% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.74% | 0.8% | 2026-05-21 21:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.07% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.19% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.74% | 0.8% | 2026-05-21 21:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.07% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.19% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.74% | 0.8% | 2026-05-21 21:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.24% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.91% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.85% | 1.9% | 2026-05-21 21:50 |